Marlon Mack’s ceiling is significantly reduced without Andrew Luck. How much does Andrew Luck’s retirement affect T.Y. Hilton?
Jacoby Brissett is better than advertised. Duke Johnson vs. David Montomery: Who is closer to the center of the Talent+Opportunity Venn diagram.
Over the past three seasons combined, no receiver displayed a higher average weekly volatility rate than Julio Jones (10.2). Player Profiler’s rating system considers any mark greater than 10 to be very volatile.
Albert Wilson and Tre’Quan Smith both displayed a high level of weekly volatility last season: Wilson with a 10.1 (No. 6) number and Smith with a 10.2 (No. 5) mark.
With Jacoby Brissett’s air yards per attempt ranking 31st in 2017, Nyheim Hines could be on the receiving end of a plethora of check-downs against the Chargers this Sunday. Hines’ fantasy production doubled in losses last season, meaning he is in a spot to crush this week.
With an 85th-percentile College Target Share, Dare Ogunbowale is set to lead the Bucs backfield on passing downs. If and when he flashes against the 49ers this weekend, his value will skyrocket. Fantasy gamers should take advantage of his stone-min pricing.
Tyler Lockett was incredibly efficient in 2018, scoring 10 touchdowns with nearly 1,000 yards despite only 71 targets. He was top-three in True Catch rate and Target Premium while leading all WRs in yards per target, Production Premium, fantasy points per target, and had a perfect quarterback rating when targeted.
Vance McDonald is healthy (for now) and is in prime position to receive a healthy target volume. He saw 73 targets in 2018. With Antonio Brown and Jesse James out of town and little else for target competition outside of Juju Smith-Schuster, that number is expected to go up substantially.
Following Kenny Stills’ departure, the Miami Dolphins find themselves with a starting wide receiver trio of DeVante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Albert Wilson. Many project the Dolphins to finish among the league’s worst teams. With Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm and projected negative game script throughout the season, targeting Miami receivers brings hidden upside.
With Bruce Arians coming to Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers should remain near the top of the league in yards per game after finishing second in that category last season (415.5 yards per game). Dare Ogunbowale quietly brings fantasy upside in this offense after Barber recorded 39 red zone touches last year (No. 10).
What is Duke Johnson’s ceiling exactly? Devin Funchess or Parris Campbell worth drafting in a post-Luck world?
How many touchdowns this year for Eric Ebron aka Eric Enron? A top-5 all-time wide receiver season is in play for DeAndre Hopkins this year.
In college, Devine Ozigbo logged 49 total receptions for 10.0 yards per reception. With the NFL evolving, pass-catching running backs are top priority for teams. His preseason highlights show that he’s quickly put his receiving abilities to use, with his agility and hands being highlights for preseason viewers.
Ignoring his eighth-percentile Burst Score, Ryquell Armstead didn’t disappoint at the NFL Combine. At 5-11, 220-pounds, he logged a 4.45 (92nd-percentile) 40-yard dash and a 112.2 (94th-percentile) Speed Score. His strength in those metrics is kin to the lead-back in front of him, Leonard Fournette.
While playing for the Chiefs in 2018, Williams a 10-percent Breakaway Run Rate. Kareem Hunt, in the same offense, posted a 6.1-percent (No. 15) Breakaway Run Rate. Williams posted 1.33 (No. 11) Fantasy Points per Opportunity, similar to James White and Duke Johnson, showing elite RB pass catching skill.
It’s only fair to mention the fact that Duke Johnson is Miami University’s all-time leading rusher. He outperformed other Miami U grads such as Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, and even Lamar Miller. Johnson will be filling the shoes of a player in Miller who was top 20 in Weighted Opportunity and red zone touches.
This Darwin Thompson hype train is out of control. The conductor is drunk, the film-grinding passengers are partying like its 1999 and they are all headed nowhere fast. This happens every offseason and yet it is still shocking to watch history repeat itself. Fantasy analysts build insane amounts of hype for a lesser prospect, the ADP skyrockets, owners get burned.
In the preseason and at Utah State, Thompson has shown elusiveness and an ability to make defenders miss in space. His 6.8 yards per carry in college, which was third among Darwin’s comparable player pool, is evidence that he can gain yards with elusiveness despite his low Speed Score. The question remains whether he can translate those skills when playing against superior competition in full-speed NFL games.
While James Washington’s athletic profile doesn’t boggle the mind, his 18.4 (98th-percentile among qualified receivers) Breakout Age and 20.2 (94th-percentile) College YPR offer a glimpse into his probable usage this year. With Brown gone, Washington will be split out at ‘Z’ for the Steelers, playing that downfield burner role.
With only Mike Evans and hype rocket Chris Godwin above him on the depth chart, Breshad Perriman is ready to make a day one impact. The Bucs ran three-receiver sets 60-percent of the time last year, a top-10 mark in the league. Couple this with the fact that the their run game and defense are still big question marks, he can accrue big target numbers in Bruce Arians’ pass-happy offense.
