A.J. Brown is the undisputed No. 1 dynasty receiver. Penei Sewell is setting the Lions up for success.
D’Andre Swift will benefit from improved offensive line play. Anthony Schwartz helps the Browns’ tactical passing game.
In 2020, Emmanuel Sanders led the NFL with a 110.9-percent True Catch Rate, and that’s not a typo. What does this tell the RotoUnderworld audience? Despite a 67.1-percent (No. 97 among qualified wide receivers) Catchable Target Rate and 6.04 (No. 108) Target Accuracy, Sanders was able to utilize his 10.29 (92nd-percentile) Catch Radius to haul in a majority of his targets, even those deemed uncatchable. He caught 61 passes even though only 55 targets were deemed catchable.
Last season, Denzel Mims finished the season with a 51.1-percent (No. 103) Catch Rate. Box score hunters see this stat and assume “This guy can’t play and is a bust.” Mims’ 88.5-percent (No. 29) True Catch Rate and 14.1 (No. 12) Average Target Distance add context to his situation. A quarterback upgrade in 2021 would lead to an increase in Mims’ 57.8-percent (No. 107) Catchable Target Rate in 2020, and thus increase his Catch Rate that box score hunters overvalue.
The Cowboys offensive line took a step back last season after fielding what was arguably the league’s top line in 2019. Not much has changed for a good-looking group entering 2021, though the center position is still a hole that needs to be filled following Travis Frederick’s retirement. Like the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are banking on health in 2021 as Zack Martin, La’el Collins, and Tyron Smith return to play alongside Connor Williams.
The Packers return four of five offensive line starters and could still re-sign Ricky Wagner, which would return 86-percent of their snaps from last season. However they did lose all-pro center Corey Linsley, who has graded as PFF’s No. 6, No. 7, and No. 1 center over the last three seasons, in free agency. While losing Linsley will hurt, there is still enough talent along this offensive line to remain a top unit in 2021.
The Miami Dolphins fielded a below average offensive line in 2020. They ranked No. 21 in PFF pass blocking and No. 30 in run blocking, while also ranking No. 24 in Adjusted Line Yards and No. 20 in Adjusted Sack Rate. This line seems to range between slightly below average to slightly above average unless both Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt take major leaps forward in their sophomore seasons.
Completing their offensive line rebuild, the Chargers saw Northwestern’s tackle Rashawn Slater fall to them at No. 13, where he was considered a top 10 pick and in a similar tier with No. 7 overall pick Penei Sewell. Provided enough health, no team in 2021 should see a larger turnaround in offensive line play from 2020.
Calvin Ridley’s breakout coincides with his opportunity. The Falcons currently have Julio Jones coming back healthy and have spent significant draft capital on superstar tight end prospect Kyle Pitts. Last year was the Calvin Ridley show, this year would be a competition for targets should Jones stay. Right now, I have a hard time taking him over guys like Keenan Allen or Michael Thomas who are currently going behind him.
Second-year quarterbacks don’t always improve on their first season. While Daniel Jones did show incredible rushing value, I should’ve known better that his decision-making was not all there yet. All of his advanced metrics were in the bottom half of the league among qualified quarterbacks. Lowlighted by 38 (No. 5) Danger Plays (No. 2), a 79.0 (No. 2) True Passer Rating, and a 7.2 (No. 24) Accuracy Rating. Sigh…
I didn’t even have to think about smashing the draft button on J.K. Dobbins at 3.08. This likely gives me guaranteed points from my top two runners and my late selections can be purely based on upside. It’s not only his profile and metrics, but also his ability to score inside the five, where he scored on 88.9-percent of his rookie season carries, that gives him a massive ceiling.
Tyrell Williams should see plenty of opportunities as he reunites with offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. In two seasons with Lynn, while being the fourth pass-catching option, he had ten double-digit fantasy point games, and four with over 20 fantasy points. Now he will be the second or third option for the Lions, and with the last pick in a best ball draft, what more could you want?
A top Pac-12 WR at USC, Amon-Ra St. Brown has the tools to become a starting receiver and brings his physicality to an appreciative Dan Campbell in Detroit. Among a WR corps with Breshad Perriman and Tyrell Williams at the helm and lacking an alpha, he can easily see a large Target Share immediately. He fits in as a contested catch receiver, especially with Jared Goff, who had 34 (No. 9 among qualified quarterbacks) Danger Plays and 22 (No. 12) Interceptable with the Rams last season.
At North Carolina, Dyami Brown played with Dazz Newsome and Michael Carter, two players who had shallower target depth averages with Brown operating as the deeper receiver. Now with Terry McLaurin (12.9 yards per reception in 2020, No. 47) and Curtis Samuel (11.0 yards per reception, No. 82) drawing targets and attention underneath, Brown will be able to stretch the field for Washington as well.
The cornerback with the league’s highest Burn Rate, Jaylon Johnson faced several top-end wide receivers in his 13 games played in 2020. Meanwhile, he managed a +36.5 (No. 13 among qualified cornerbacks) Coverage Rating and 16 (No. 4) Pass Break-ups. We have a mix of notable receivers that performed well against Johnson in Mike Evans, D.J. Moore, and Justin Jefferson. Interestingly, we find low production from A.J. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling with Johnson covering them.
On the flip side, let’s look at Jaire Alexander, who allowed a 0.0-percent (No. 1) Burn Rate, tying with several other defensive backs. Meanwhile, he ranked No. 2 with a +54.9 Coverage Rating and No. 1 with 18 Pass Break-ups. Alexander dominated. Overall, it’s wild to think he didn’t allow a single burn against Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, Will Fuller, and Allen Robinson twice.
Avoid narratives that do not align with the data. In 2020, Aaron Jones’s opportunity was similar to what he saw in 2019, other than the total touchdowns. The goal of fantasy football is to score fantasy points. Players need opportunity to score fantasy points. Raw skills alone will not get the job done. When a running back is in their prime, coming off of an incredibly productive season with 217.9 (No. 9 among qualified running backs) Weighted Opportunities, I am interested in having them on my roster.
I like big receivers and I cannot lie: At 6-3 and 212 pounds, I figured Bryan Edwards would be that outside alpha receiver that would be productive in recording first downs, having screens thrown to him, and being a red zone threat with his size. Given his young Breakout Age, and doing in the SEC in college, I thought he would be able to step in as a rookie and have a nice season.
Age-adjusted production matters, and Travis Etienne has been the man since he was 19 years old. His production profile is nothing short of prolific. He followed his impressive freshman breakout season with two straight years of at least 1,600 rushing yards and 20 total touchdowns. Playing with Trevor Lawrence capped his College Dominator Rating at 25.7-percent (54th-percentile among qualified running backs), but he was efficient with his lighter workload.
While not as talented of a receiver as Travis Etienne, Najee Harris did prove he is also capable of producing in the passing game at the NFL level with his 43-reception, 425-receiving yard, and 13.4-percent (90th-percentile) College Target Share senior season. With a 5.8 (68th-percentile) College YPC average, Harris was less efficient than Etienne, but his 30.9-percent (70th-percentile) College Dominator Rating (a much more predictive metric for running backs) checks in significantly higher.
