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Week 12 showcases two games that feature two teams with seven or more wins. The Tennessee Titans facing the New England Patriots makes one of the said matchups. The other is this article’s featured showdown: the 7-3 Los Angeles Rams traveling north to take on the 8-3 Green Bay Packers. One point separates these two in the eyes of Vegas, who view the Rams as the favorite. This matchup intrigues from all angles, so analyzing it is a must.

The Packers are an hour away from punching the clock on their night shift, while the Rams woke up from a good night’s sleep. The states of these two teams are polar opposites after the Rams came off a bye last week, while the Packers are battered and bruised with their bye next week. Vegas likes the Rams as one-point favorites, and it’s hard to find fault in their process.

Ja’Marr Chase, a prospect with a near flawless college profile, demonstrated that he can not only win, but excel when targeted downfield. He averaged an absurd 21.2 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College YPC, while pacing the NCAA and SEC in receiving yards. He scored 20 receiving touchdowns at age 21 as a true man among boys and was drafted No. 5 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. The NFL industrial complex provided the biggest signal, that hey, this guy may just be good at football.

Ja’Marr Chase is 6-0, ran a 4.39 (95th-percentile) 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and posted a 135.7 (97th-percentile) Burst Score. A prototypical alpha X receiver with a 19.5 (77th-percentile) Breakout Age who posted a 1,780 yard sophomore season at LSU is not the next Justin Jefferson? Those touts were right, he was better than Jefferson in college and now he’s better than Jefferson in the NFL.

Devonta Smith cooled off last week posting only 10.1 fantasy points against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. However, Smith has averaged 14.5 Fantasy Points Per Game over the past four weeks. Up against another top corner in James Bradberry, Smith may find it difficult to post more the 20 FPPG like he did in Weeks 9 and 10, however his floor remains high based on his share of Air Yards in the Eagles offense. He is a recommended play in all formats.

Courtland Sutton’s vanishing act since Jerry Jeudy’s return is outright alarming. In games that Jeudy has not played in this season, Sutton has averaged 146 Air Yards. In the games that Jeudy has played, that average plummets to 43 Air Yards. He has been outgained in Air Yards the past two games by both Tim Patrick and Jeudy. Sutton is a tournament dart throw this week.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

The index showcases low-dollar running backs that are getting high-value touches inside the 10-yard line. The smaller slate leads to less available options to consider. Aaron Jones, Myles Gaskin, and Darrell Henderson make for interesting tournament plays this week. Jeff Wilson and Jordan Howard are players to remove from your player pool.

Once Antonio Brown and Stefon Diggs found their new homes in Tampa Bay and Buffalo, they thrived with the change of scenery. One would assume Odell Beckham will thrive in the Rams offense, especially after they lost Robert Woods for the rest of the year with a torn ACL. However, I am here to make the argument that it will not be much of a difference.

In negotiations to deal Odell Beckham, make sure you point out his ability to still get open and how he will be a week-winner for their team with his big play potential. Also, argue for Matthew Stafford’s MVP case and how he will feed Beckham now with Robert Woods out. Beckham will be better now that he is out of Cleveland, but that is not a high bar to clear. Leave that headache for someone else and get yourself a second-half rebound candidate.

On a slate notably lacking in QB star power, strategy must be adjusted for building GPP tournament lineups. By paying up for Tom Brady, fantasy gamers unlock a floor and ceiling combo not possible with any other QB. Paying down for Cam Newton will be more popular, but by stacking him with D.J. Moore, leverage is available on those looking to only play Newton for his rushing.

The first, and least desirable, game of the Thanksgiving slate is shaping up to be even uglier; both starting quarterbacks are likely out for the matchup. No Justin Fields on Turkey Day is a bummer, but at least we get D’Andre Swift in this one. The second year back is No. 5 in PPR scoring, and with Jamaal Williams getting work. Some didn’t think this was possible. But it is and he’s killing it; he ranks No. 4 in Snap Share at the position, and No. 1 in Targets and Receptions. Oh, and his Dominator Rating is a stellar 32.5 percent, good for No. 4 among qualified backs. He’s in for a day on Thursday.

The obvious issue here is the Cowboys receivers. Dallas did not play well last week against the Chiefs, and the injuries were certainly a part of it. They’ll have to rebound against the Raiders, and they still will be without both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. Michael Gallup led receivers with 10 Targets, but failed to capitalize. He’s had a quiet return from IR thus far, but Dallas will need him to step up Thursday, even if the run game is working well.

With three games on the docket, the pickings are slim on a short Thanksgiving slate. At the quarterback position, Josh Allen is the clear-cut top option and is worth the spend-up. After bodying DFS lineups in a surprising flop performance against the Colts, expect a bounce-back game against a Saints team that has allowed a lot of fantasy points to the quarterback this season (No. 7) but especially over the past four weeks (No. 1 in points allowed).

With the questions surrounding the Cowboys offensive weapons, consider a complete dart throw in tight end Sean McKeon. With Blake Jarwin shelved on IR, the second-year tight end has seen a slight uptick in playing time. Dallas should run more two tight end sets in support of the run-heavy Game Script, which would put him on the field more. McKeon is athletic given his 93rd-percentile Vertical Jump and 78th-percentile Speed Score. At the stone minimum $2,500 10 DKPt gives us tournament-winning upside.

Darnell Mooney took full advantage of the injury related absence of Allen Robinson (DK: $5,100) in Week 11. Mooney saw a team-high 16 targets, which was one less target that everyone else on the team combined. He also saw 219 Air Yards and was able to capitalize on this immense opportunity despite only catching five passes. Mooney finished as the WR4 on the week with 23.1 fantasy points. At only $5,700, he would enter chalk play territory if Robinson is force to miss the game against Detroit and their exploitable secondary.

Emmanuel Sanders posted another dud last week against the Colts scoring only 5.6 fantasy points. Considering his performance so far this season, its best to chalk up his Week 11 opportunities as a fluke. Sanders has seen 100 Air Yards or more in half of the games he played this season, and setting last weeks performance aside on the cooling rack, Sanders has seen at least 78 Air Yards per game. His 17.4 Average Target Distance will make him volatile however he should a mainstay in tournament lineups.

The tight end throne has been taken for quite some time because Travis Kelce is the undisputed tight end champion of the world. All the talk at the beginning of the 2021 season was between tight ends T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller, George Kittle, maybe Kyle Pitts, and of course Kelce. Mike Gesicki was so far down that he was an afterthought TE. The truth is Gesicki is now the number one contender for the TE 1 crown. Don’t make the mistake of upgrading him too slowly like many fantasy analysts do.

My prediction is Mike Gesicki will gradually fall down the ranks this year as Miami’s quarterback struggles will continue. He will finish anywhere from No. 5 to No. 10 in fantasy scoring, but his ADP won’t reflect his true upside. My guess is next year he will be overshadowed by players like T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, and of course Travis Kelce. However, Gesicki will be the best value tight end drafted, and has a good chance to be the best tight end in fantasy football.