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On the heels of a straight-up embarrassing romp of the Washington Football Team, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys host the Cardinals. Over the past four games, Arizona has allowed the No. 7 most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Pair Prescott up with Amari Cooper, who led the team in Week 16 with a season-high 27.5-percent Target Share.

Projecting at only 1.2-percent ownership, Dalton Schultz looks like the most overlooked piece from the Cowboys side of the ball. Schultz gets a great game environment in a weather-controlled dome in a game ranked No. 1 in Pace of Play. Schultz has shown tournament-winning upside while surpassing 20 DKPt in back-to-back games. The Cardinals have been suspect within 10 yards of the LOS allowing a 55-percent Pass Rate in that area where Shultz mostly operates.

The Terry McLaurin contrarian play narrative continues after an underwhelming 7 fantasy point performance last week in a blow out against the Cowboys. McLaurin has still seen at least 65 Air Yards the past four games despite averaging 4.8 fantasy points per game during this time span. Something has to give. Perhaps it does this week against the Eagles.

Marvin Jones and the Jaguars have an implied team point total of 13 points against a stout Patriots defense this week. He is perhaps a bit too contrarian of a play despite finishing as the WR20 last week seeing 157 Air Yards. However, at only $4,400 he makes for a low cost tournament dart though that has the peripheral stats to greatly outperform that price.

In 15 games, Joe Burrow has thrown for 4,165 (No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks) yards and 30 (No. 7) TDs. He enjoys a league-best 9.70 Supporting Cast Efficiency rating, which has translated to a 19.5 (No. 1) Production Premium. Trending up, his stock gains a position leading 7.8 Lifetime Value points this week. Since early in the 2021 season, Burrow has gained over 40 Lifetime Value points ascending from QB11 to QB7.

It’s not a surprise that Russell Wilson’s metrics are down from recent years. For example, his passing touchdown rate has dropped to 5.2-percent with a 47.6 (No. 19) Total QBR. This season, the veteran has rushed for a mere 154 yards (12.8 per game), as compared to 32.1 per game in 2020. Wilson loses 4.22 Lifetime Value points and slips to QB9 on PlayerProfiler’s dynasty rankings.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

David Montgomery is the top value play at running back this week and would use in both cash games and tournaments. The remaining players in the index are in shared backfields. If they come up in a lineup generator for MME entries into tournaments, that is fine, but they are too risky for cash games, single entry, and three-max tournaments.
 

The Cardinals face the Cowboys this week in the game with the highest total on the slate. Despite this, Kyler projects to go slightly overlooked. Since returning from injury, he has two top six finishes but also two finishes outside QB12. The matchup is also intimidating on paper against the Cowboys defense. In the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk takes on a centerpiece role in the Cardinals offense. Yet DraftKings still prices him below $6k. Take advantage of this yet to be priced-in role change.

Budget stacks are a recurring theme in this series. In an age where daily fantasy gamers are more than happy to pay up to $7-8k for QBs, there’s significant opportunity in paying down to boost the rest of the roster. That leads us to Davis Mills. The rookie QB for the Texans has played surprisingly well this year considering a near league worst situation he’s in. With a collegiate profile indicative of a deep field threat, evidenced by his 19.7 (93rd-percentile) Yards per Reception, Nico Collins has high splash play potential creating a low bar to return value.

Jaylen Waddle has become the focal point of this offense, and he’s done this at a historic pace. The record for most receptions by a rookie is Anquan Boldin with 101 over 16 games. Waddle currently has 96 (No. 6 among qualified wide receivers) receptions, with two games left in the year. He is a strong WR2 and should be in all lineups for championship weekend.

It’s trending that we see more of Jeremy McNichols or even Dontrell Hilliard lined up as a receiver, or in on passing situations together to help fill the void that the team has. Nobody on Earth can replicate what Derrick Henry does on the field, but D’Onta Foreman has done an admirable job along with his teammates of creating a patchwork rushing attack, it’s just incredibly difficult to trust them on championship Sunday.

It is Playoff season when it comes to the National Fantasy competitions. If you aren’t currently competing in these national competitions, you are missing out on one of the most fun and possibly most profitable aspects of Season-Long Fantasy Football. We are going to be looking at the “Mini Majors.” These are national competitions with overall prize pools ranging from $150,000-$500,000 for modest buy-ins of $200-$350.

One of the biggest things I noticed when looking through Chad Schroeder’s TFC team was that he used both waiver runs each week. He also commented on both teams about a key player he picked up on those second runs. That is a huge free nugget we got from the best fantasy football player in the world. Pay attention to those second waiver runs. Keep hammering each and every waiver wire of the season from Week 1 until they lock you out and throw away the key.

The best way to cut through the field like a hot knife through butter is by unlocking a unique player with sky-high upside. When assessing your last selections, in particular from teams such as the Chiefs, Buccaneers, or Packers, of which the entrenched skill players are selected early, prioritize contingent value. Essentially, if a player at their position gets COVID, who is most likely to benefit, and how great is that benefit?

Trey Lance gets his second start Sunday, and what if he wins the last two games to secure the 49ers into the playoffs? Would Kyle Shanahan really turn away from the man he mortgaged his future for? The highest ceiling version of this team is with Lance unlocking a newfound ceiling, and providing elite fantasy production on the ground as San Francisco challenges for a title.

In the nine games Dalvin Cook has started and finished, he has registered at least 20 touches in eight. He has an 80.9-percent (No. 3 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share and averages 5.0 (No. 25) Yards Per Touch. He was activated from the COVID-19 list on Wednesday, meaning he now has the golden ticket to swinging fantasy title games this week against Green Bay’s second-worst run defense per Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA metric.

Since Week 15, Aaron Jones has 25 carries and eight targets compared to Dillon’s 16 carries and four targets. Jones is almost doubling Dillon in routes run in that span too, with a 29-16 advantage. Dillon still saw 12 touches last week to Jones’ 17, and is as good a candidate as there is to punch in a touchdown at the goal line, but he is not a player that must be inserted into lineups anymore.

Last week, Ronald Jones put up 16.1 PPR fantasy points in place of Leonard Fournette and has had back-to-back games of 2 receptions and 70+ scrimmage yards. Jones is the clear lead back for Tampa with Fournette out and now sees an excellent matchup in Week 17 against the Jets. Expect him to run all over the Jets while seeing a few targets out of the backfield this week.

The Ravens have allowed 100 yards rushing to an opponent in one of their last seven games and allow less than 4 yards per carry. Sony Michel is coming off a huge game where he saw 28 touches. With Darrell Henderson banged up, Michel figures to carry the RB load, but opposing RBs have seen over 20 touches just twice in Baltimore’s last twelve games. Expect the Rams to air it out with Stafford this week, rather than run it up the gut against the likes of Patrick Queen and Brandon Williams.