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Dalton Schultz had a breakout season last year, where he finished as the No. 3 overall tight end. In PPR, he averaged 12.3 (No. 5 among qualified tight ends) Fantasy Points Per Game. That inspires confidence as two of Dallas’s receiving weapons left the team this offseason. The logical conclusion is that Gallup and Schultz will be the 2a and 2b receiving option in this offense next season with both getting an uptick in Target Share.

Former 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel is heading to Miami along with speedster Tyreek Hill. McDaniel spent one year as offensive coordinator, and in that year, created a breakout season for Deebo Samuel without hurting the production of George Kittle. The Dolphins wide receiver corps Hill and Jaylen Waddle is the fastest one-two punch in the league. Mike Gesicki, scoring in the 95th-percentile or higher in all workout metrics, is no slowpoke either.

From 2020 to 2021 Ezekiel Elliot has seen a decline in Opportunity Share, Yards Created, and Dominator Rating. Zeke’s Opportunity Share fell more than 14-percentage points and for the first time in his entire career he finished outside the top 25 in Dominator Rating. The tailback is becoming less and less of a factor in the passing game. He may have been the RB7 overall but he was RB15 on a points per game basis. Get out now before the bottom completely falls off.

Not only has Miles Sanders witnessed a downtick in opportunities, he was also less effective when he had the ball in his hands. He has fallen outside the top 30 running backs in PlayerProfiler’s Dynasty Rankings. This may be the last chance to move on from the Philly tailback. Will team builders get 100-percent return? Absolutely not, but in short order, his value may drop to zero. So get out now!

The offseason is an exciting time for both the organizations and the players, and it is the time where new storylines begin. Teams are looking to fix last season’s mistakes, and free agents are looking for a fresh start. There has certainly been some movement that will change the trajectory of some NFL teams for years to come. Let’s take a look at some players going to new teams via free agency.

One year after being PFF’s worst offensive line, the Dolphins have brought in three-time Pro Bowl tackle Terron Armstead. He will bring in veteran leadership and be a valuable asset to the Dolphins offensive line for up to five years. It’s put up or shut up time for Tua Tagovailoa, who still hasn’t really impressed at the NFL level. All the pieces are there, now it’s time for us to watch.

PlayerProfiler/RotoUnderworld Head Game Analyst and NFL Draft Analyst Cody Carpentier is back for more; now breaking down his NFL Mock Draft 5.0 in a short team-by-team series. Next up is Minnesota Vikings. If you want to see your favorite team, go to Twitter @CarpentierNFL and leave Cody a comment on what team you want to see broken down next.

I can’t express how much it hurts me to see the top prospect on my Top 300 Big Board drop to Pick No. 12. From Nick Fairley to Warren Sapp and Laremy Tunsil, sometimes guys fall for a number of reasons. The 11-15 range is where they land. Here comes the value of the draft. Minnesota doesn’t need EDGE as bad as they did a month ago, but you can’t pass up on Kayvon Thibodeaux’s talent.

Although many people love trade negotiations, others get intimidated and are risk-averse; fearing that their return may be perceived as the “loser” in the deal (which in dynasty is not a simple evaluation given that situations change every year, injuries happen, and values fluctuate). Thanks to smart people and technology, there are now numerous sites that host their own versions of trade calculators based on each site’s dynasty rankings.

Trading away young players that are perceived to be more valuable than what their profiles dictate, in exchange for depreciating assets with proven production, allows for more creativity in formulating trades with the additional assets acquired, or to rebuild a roster by acquiring future draft picks on top of proven talent that are past the age-apex curve.

The dreaded Tight End Wasteland is a term that has become all too familiar in fantasy football. It’s a place you never want to be, but also a place that can be hard to avoid. We can’t all be lucky enough to land a set-and-forget tight end. Even in eight-team leagues, chances are there’s at least a couple teams disappointed in their tight end week-to-week. So let’s take a look at some prime candidates for a solid season to help us avoid the tight end wasteland next year.  Let’s go ahead and start with the studs that you’ll have to draft a little earlier, but for good reason.

Mark Andrews was as consistent as it gets, and when he hit his ceiling, he won your week. Expect more of the same this season as well. Andrews led the Ravens, and the entire position, with a 26.6-percent Target Share last year. He’s the alpha receiver on the Ravens offense. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, there’s no telling how much higher Andrews’ ceiling can go. Two years younger than George Kittle and four years younger than Travis Kelce, Andrews has firmly set himself up to be a valuable fantasy tight end for years, and is PlayerProfiler’s TE1 in all fantasy formats.

The return of Jameis Winston to the Saints brings several different fantasy implications, not only for him, but for the team’s skill players. As a starter for New Orleans last season, Winston averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game with 14 passing touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in seven games. He also tacked on 166 rushing yards, showing he has the rushing potential to be impactful in fantasy. Winston had two top-5 weekly fantasy finishes in that time. However, he had four games under 15 fantasy points, showing he was a very volatile option on a Saints team with limited receiving options.

After releasing Cole Beasley, the Buffalo Bills went out and signed Jamison Crowder. Crowder (whose Best Comparable is Beasley) has spent the majority of his career as a slot receiver. Last season in twelve games, he took 334 (No. 17) Slot Snaps at a 66.8-percent Slot Rate. In Buffalo last season, Beasley had an 82.1-percent Slot Rate with Isaiah McKenzie filling in the slot as well. With Beasley out, Crowder’s role will almost certainly be as Josh Allen’s slot receiver, a position where Beasley saw over 100 targets each of the last three seasons.

Cooks is no stranger to producing in the face of adversity. He’s proved repeatedly no matter who is in charge of getting him the ball, he will produce. He’s posted six 1,000-plus yard seasons in eight pro seasons, doing so with four different teams over that span. Throughout his tenure, he finished the season outside the top 24 wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game merely once.

Brandin Cooks provides value in every league format, especially for those who prefer a Hero RB or Robust RB approach. The fact that he can be had after Tyler Lockett (ADP 46.5), Gabriel Davis (ADP 66.3), and Darnell Mooney (ADP 63.3) in Underdog is criminal. To make matters worse he is equally overlooked in dynasty leagues. He is currently being drafted as the 38th wide receiver off the board in dynasty startups, following aging and less opportune players such as Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett and Odell Beckham.

In this edition of Thinking About Thinking (Ranges of Outcomes), I continue my series addressing probabilistic fantasy football strategy. Each article I will unpack ways our brains work in irrational ways that create value in your fantasy football leagues. Last week I discussed analytical prospect models, and the importance of humility when evaluating rookies. If you haven’t yet, make sure to check that out to get a feel for this series!

In a ceiling scenario, Tua Tagovailoa is a top-12 quarterback this year with his new weapons, entrenching himself as Miami’s franchise quarterback. On the other hand, he could fail to meet expectations and carry precarious job security into 2023. Schrodinger’s Tua is both alive and dead, but his cost resides in purgatory. His market value is a compromise position between two plausible outcomes which attempts to balance them appropriately.

Consistency is highly sought after by many in the fantasy football community. Since it’s human nature to avoid risk, we feel more comfortable putting a player in our lineup if we know he’ll reliably score 12-15 points compared to a player ranging from 5-25 points. But is consistency a trait we can predict from year to year? Follow along as I use the power of statistics to better analyze the relationship between fantasy points and the consistency with which they’re scored. 

Mike Williams in 2021 finished as the WR14 in PPG by averaging 15.4 PPR points per game, but conversations about his outlook in 2022 are centered on his inconsistent production. His six games with more than 20 PPR points and seven games with fewer than 10 PPR points are worrying many drafters, yet his CV only checked in at 0.687, on the slightly inconsistent end of our “average” bucket. History would suggest that Williams’ CV will improve and he is likely to stay productive in fantasy.