Results for: "rookie RB efficiency"

The Steelers front office puts a premium on character and relationships. This combined with the team’s close connection to the University of Maryland helps explain how Anthony McFarland ended up in Pittsburgh with a high-value fourth round selection. The team refuses to commit to the oft-injured James Conner, Benny Snell is just a guy, and Jaylen Samuels never fired. The runway lights are lit for McFarland and his 4.44 speed to lift off as Ben Roethlisberger returns in 2020.  

If you think Austin Ekeler’s extreme efficiency will carry over into 2020 sharing a backfield with a rookie quarterback behind an ineffective offensive line, this whole fantasy football things probably isn’t for you. Joshua Kelley is the only Chargers running back with the requisite size and all-purpose skillset to endure as a primary back in the league. The fourth round is the new third round given how the NFL has devalued the RB position. Kelley is the best-value rookie running back in dynasty.

Hunter Renfrow was second in the 2019 rookie wide receiver class in Yards Per Pass Route only to A.J. Brown. In addition to his efficiency, he earned 71 targets. From day one, he earned opportunities and was efficient on the field. There’s not much more we can ask. The Raiders did add talent to their receiving corps with Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards, but Renfrow will still see his share of the targets in year two.

Andy Isabella’s 3.1 Yards Per Pass Route looks much less impressive in the context of his 13 rookie season targets. The Cardinals ran 4-5 wide receiver sets a league-high 31.9-percent of the time and he still couldn’t earn looks in a weak receiver room, seeing fewer targets than the likes of Damiere Byrd, KeeSean Johnson, and Pharoh Cooper. In the context of the data, he becomes an easy fade despite the hype around his prospect profile.

Jalen Reagor comes into a situation as the instant No. 1 receiver in Philadelphia and should become an instant fantasy beneficiary as someone with serious contested catch and deep-ball abilities. His quarterback is not afraid to throw deep or into coverage, allowing for plenty of opportunities for splash plays. He has the chance to be a pumped up Brandin Cooks and should be rising up every dynasty player’s rookie board.

When Jerry Jeudy was drafted No. 15 overall to the Denver Broncos, there was almost an audible crash as he fell down many analysts’ rankings over the weekend. With the addition of Melvin Gordon, the Broncos are more committed to the run game than ever. Jeudy’s fate lies in the hands of Drew Lock’s ability to become a hyper-efficient quarterback at the next level. This is dynasty and situations are subject to change, but with a Jeudy breakout unlikely over his first few seasons, he falls from WR2 overall into the WR5 range.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire won the lottery. His skillset already made him the perfect weapon for any offense. Not only was Edwards-Helaire a target magnet with a 10.2-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share, but he had suction cups for hands, catching 55 of his 58 looks. He’s also incredibly elusive with the ball in his hands, wiggling past defenders with his 128.7 (89th-percentile) Burst Score. With his 32.4 (89th-percentile) Body Mass Index, he’ll double as a stout workhorse on the ground.

One quiet riser in the rookie ranks was Anthony McFarland. The Pittsburgh Steelers grabbed the speedster out of Maryland as a nice insurance policy for James Conner. Given Conner’s lengthy Medical History Report, McFarland may pay off for them as soon as 2020. His touches will be limited as a rookie, but he has the skills to deliver splash plays and should earn more work. Despite seeing the third-highest jump in Lifetime Value among rookie running backs, he’s still a project in dynasty leagues.

Dynamism is a trait that we at PlayerProfiler and Breakout Finder place a heavy premium on when evaluating college prospects. No one in the 2020 NFL Draft embodies this trait more than Lynn Bowden. His Best Comparable Player being Deebo Samuel makes sense on many levels. Both can be used in a variety of ways and, given the way the league is trending, fit the prototype of the modern-day alpha receiver.

If there’s ever a year where we shouldn’t be surprised to see a player like Bowden sneak into the back half of Day 2, it’s a year where the wide receiver class is this deep and the draft itself projects to be the most unpredictable of all time. He’s the perfect upside flyer in the third round of rookie drafts and the No. 12 receiver in our rookie rankings. Though his upside is high enough that it’s hard to find fault with taking him in the second.

Collin Johnson took three years to break out at Texas, recording a 21.0 (45th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) Breakout Age. He didn’t command a particularly heavy market share until his junior season and had a pedestrian 14.6 (48th-percentile) College YPR. Without athletic testing at the Combine or a pro day to provide his full athletic profile, the positives surrounding him are limited.

From a stylistic perspective, Johnson doesn’t necessarily offer everything one would expect from a receiver of his size. He’s strong at the catch point, but not great beating press. He takes long strides, but doesn’t have the acceleration or deep speed to threaten cornerbacks. Johnson’s elite-level contested catch ability is bookended by his inability to create consistent separation. Major concerns exist for a prospect that profiles as an X receiver at the NFL level but will likely never be given the opportunity to be one.

It’s hard to overstate what Cam Akers was able to accomplish behind one of the nation’s worst offensive lines. His 0.57 yards blocked per attempt is the worst in the five-year history of Graham Barfield’s Yards Created metric. Despite not being a special teamer at the college level, being a dual-threat quarterback in high school shows that he has the type of on-field dynamism that can’t be taught.

Players like Gabriel Davis who declare early after improving each year in college are players I like to bet on. His Catch Rate may have dropped in his final year at UCF, but he nearly doubled his career totals in receptions, yards and touchdowns. His 115 Big Board Index ranking suggests he’s a fourth-round pick, but he made some appearances in Rounds 2 and 3 of some of our source mocks. Davis sneaking into Day 2 would force us to reshape the middle tiers of our wide receiver rankings. 

Darnell Mooney’s college production earned him a trip to the NFL Scouting Combine, where he impressed. He checked in at just 5-10, 176-pounds, but he ran a 4.38 (96th-percentile among qualified wide receivers) 40-yard dash. While the slight frame only gives him a 91.7 (42nd-percentile) Speed Score, the raw speed itself remains a coveted asset in the NFL. More importantly, this athleticism matched up with Mooney’s production profile.

In sum, Mooney looks like an undersized, deep threat at the NFL level. While his profile leads to a few intriguing player comparisons, draft capital remains his largest obstacle. Most peg him as a Day 3 pick. However, NFL teams chase speed and covet vertical elements in their offense. Even with an early Day 3 investment from a team, he would become a major sleeper in fantasy football.

While Marquez Callaway doesn’t have the gaudy counting stats of Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb, he does have impressive market share numbers. He posted a 33.1-percent (61st-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Dominator Rating at Tennessee with a 19.4 (80th-percentile) Breakout Age. In his career, he totaled 629 punt return yards with three touchdowns. While it doesn’t show up in most boxscores, this skill should be recognized.

Despite plenty of positives on his resume, Callaway still looks like a late-round option for many NFL teams. He’s not entirely polished and doesn’t have that freak-level athleticism. That will cause most teams to view him as a developmental pick instead of an instant contributor. If he catches fire as a returner, he’ll command more opportunities on offense. That will be his key to being a fantasy asset sooner rather than later.

Zack Moss entered the predraft the process as the tape grinder’s darling. He broke out at age 19.7 when he amassed over 1,400 yards from scrimmage. Moss has the sixth-highest College Dominator Rating in the 2020 rookie running back class at 35.7-percent, 82nd-percentile among qualified running backs. He also is more than adequate in the passing game with a 9.0-percent (68th-percentile) College Target Share.

Unfortunately, excitement around Moss dissipated after an atrocious Combine performance. He posted a sluggish 4.65 (31st-percentile) 40-Yard Dash. Further, his lateral agility and explosiveness are legitimate questions after failing to perform the drills required to register a Burst Score, and Agility Score. Tape grinders may pound the table to draft him in the latter half of the first round. However, he looks eerily similar to Montee Ball, a player that lasted only two years in the NFL.