Using PlayerProfiler‘s advanced stats, metrics, and analytics – we’ve unearthed four WRs projected for more volume next season. Wan’Dale Robinson, Christian Watson, Treylon Burks, and Rondale Moore are the wide receivers projected for more volume in 2023.
Below are key statistics to know while following along:
Route Participation – How frequently a pass-catcher runs a route on his team’s pass plays.
Target Rate / Targets Per Routes Run – How frequently a pass-catcher commands a target in context with his Route Participation mark.
A second-round pick last year, Wan’Dale Robinson averaged six targets per game in Weeks 6-11 before an injury derailed his season. Good thing for Robinson, the New York Giants total the most vacated targets entering the offseason. Additionally, fellow WR Kenny Golladay is likely going to be cut. This saves the Giants $13.5 million of his $21.4 million cap number.
Increased volume for an already voluminous slot WR is music to the ears of fantasy football managers. For reference, Robinson totaled a 64.7-percent Slot Rate. He totaled a 27.7-percent Target Rate on 112 routes and a 19.6-percent Target Share as well. Why the vacated targets matter for Robinson, though, is because it paves the way for his 65.9-percent Route Participation clip to rise. Vacated targets equal vacated routes. Earning targets is a skill.
What’s not to like about Christian Watson? 96th percentile 40-yard dash. 98th percentile Speed Score. 95th percentile Burst Score. And a 97th percentile Catch Radius. Watson enters Year 2 with a 25.5-percent Target Rate on 255 routes run and a 15.2-percent Target Share.
After running 27 routes in Week 1, Watson didn’t reach that threshold again until Week 11. In weeks 11-18, he totaled at least six targets in all but one game. The game in question: Week 17 in which he earned five targets. Based on that trend, look for Watson’s 56.9-percent Route Participation clip to rise. The Green Bay Packers total 265 vacated targets (No. 3).
Treylon Burks totaled a 23.8 percent Target Rate on 227 routes run and a 17.6 percent Target Share last season. Like Christian Watson, Burks didn’t take off until the second half. Outside of running 27 routes in Week 3, Burks didn’t run 27-plus routes until Week 10. In seven games, Weeks 10-18, Burks totaled routes run totals of the following: 27, 18, 28, 5, 18, 33, 28. He totaled six-plus targets in all but two of those games. The two games in question are 1) a game he left early and 2) a game he returned from injury. While the Tennessee Titans total 158 vacated targets (No. 15), Robert Woods is released. It’s wheels up for Burks!
With the Arizona Cardinals likely to cut Robbie Anderson, and potentially trade DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore has an outside chance at becoming the team’s second-best option in the pass-catching pecking order. Even if none of the aforementioned happens, the Cardinals total 168 vacated targets (No. 12).
A good thing for Moore, he totals a 22.6 percent Target Rate on 248 routes run and a 19.5 percent Target Share. While his Route Participation clip is a healthy 82.7-percent, Moore missed nine games. If he just holds up his eight-targets-per-game pace from last season, then Moore is looking at 136 targets.