PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Tim Talmadge looks at the four Wide Receivers to Fade (2025).
There are some controversial names on this list of fades, but keep in mind, we don’t hate the players; we hate their price. Below, I break down the reasons I am avoiding four big-name wide receivers at their current ADP.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
It would be foolish to fully fade a player who has finished top 10 at his position for three consecutive seasons. For me, it’s more of a mini fade where I have him outside of the top tier for wide receivers. The gorilla in the room for the Lions is the loss of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. His creative play-calling helped facilitate all of the team’s playmakers, and he gets credited for the slot feeding scheme that benefits St. Brown. Those three straight top 10 finishes I mentioned earlier all came under Ben Johnson as the OC. It very well could be business as usual with a new play-caller, but it’s a question we don’t have an answer to.
The other concern I have is the continued emergence of Jameson Williams. Last season, he finally became a major part of the offense and had a breakout season. That didn’t equate to a dent in St. Brown’s production, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen this year if the team takes a step back in offensive efficiency. From week 10 on, Williams, Laporta, and St. Brown all received at least five targets in every game but one. Something that perhaps was only possible due to the team’s weaknesses on defense.
That volume could be sticky if the defense continues to be bad. Even still, St. Brown only ranked 13th in expected fantasy points per game. He finished fourth due to receiving the second-most red zone targets and scoring the third-most touchdowns. His teammate Jahmyr Gibbs, was the league leader in total touchdowns. Another warning there could just be some natural regression here.
Tyreek Hill
There are plenty of excuses for how last year played out for Hill and the Dolphins. The obvious one was another injury to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. This led to Hill going from having the fifth-best rate of accurate targets to the 60th. Hill was much more usable in fantasy last year when Tua was under center.
However, his performance showed some signs of a drop-off for the 30-year-old wide receiver. His win rates per route and against man coverage all dipped, and his deep targets dropped a full target per game. Perhaps that could be attributed to quarterback play, but his yards after the catch also dropped by a full yard per target.
His offseason antics, along with a trade request, also appear to have caused a shift. The word this offseason from Dolphins camp is that Jaylen Waddle has been elevated to their number one option. Whether or not that comes to be, it wasn’t all that far off last year without Jonnu Smith. It’s a small sample, but on the 111 plays, the target pie looked like this:
Hill= 30 percent / Waddle = 25 percent / Achane = 22 percent
The condensed volume in this offense makes all the pieces intriguing. However, Hill’s potential signs of decline and/or a role change set him up to be a landmine at 25th overall. A tough bet to make when you can play this offense through his running mate in the fifth round.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
The excitement was through the roof for Harrison as he joined the Cardinals as a top 5 pick. Unfortunately, the results didn’t match the hype. Used as an expensive deep threat- he finished top 10 in deep targets, air yards, and unrealized air yards. The downfield usage seems enticing, but a recipe for disaster combined with the 92nd highest target accuracy.
The reports out of camp are that Harrison and Kyler Murray have shown better chemistry. That’s a plus and could lead to some big performances. The concern is that his entire path to scoring is based on those shots down the field. Evidenced by Harrison ranking 70th in yards after the catch with just 148 yards.
The second-year breakout is something I’d like to bet on, but there’s no real reason to expect his usage to be different. Tight end Trey McBride is the weapon the Cardinals look to as their go-to guy. He is the one who gets the snaps in the slot, and he is the one who gets high usage down in the red zone. The passing volume should be condensed down to mostly McBride and Harrison, but the Cardinals had the eighth-fewest passing attempts per game last year.
Garrett Wilson
Unfortunately, it’s a new year, but the same story for Wilson. He is once again set up to get force-fed the ball, but once again likely won’t amount to a difference-making player. Last year, he received over 145 targets for the third straight season, but with the 87th-highest average depth of target. This led to only five performances where Wilson cracked 70 receiving yards, although to his credit, he did go over 90 in all of those games.
Now the Jets go from a former MVP-caliber passer to Justin Fields. Fields has never finished higher than 25th in our accuracy rating metric. His presence under center also tends to change the team’s playing style. In his three seasons in Chicago, the Bears ranked bottom ten in the league in terms of pass attempts per game. This would be a stark contrast to last year’s Jets, who ranked fifth in pass attempts and eighth in passing yards.
The Wilson enthusiasts would point to Fields’ success with D.J. Moore back in 2023. This can’t be ignored because it was Moore’s best season of his career in terms of fantasy points per game. However, there are some red flags that suggests it was a bit of an outlier. The Bears’ offense was slow-paced and run-heavy, so Moore had to get there on the back of six huge performances.
We see here that Fields was capable of providing a high ceiling, yet the floor was extremely low in the other games. Wilson’s talent leaves the light on for a similar outcome. The issue is he goes in a range (WR16) with other boom/bust options that play for better teams and have better quarterbacks.
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