Using Game Script to Identify Fantasy Football Value Plays and Bust Candidates

by Minion Army, September 5, 2017

Game script is a team’s average point differential at any given point in a game. Why do we care about it? Do you remember the Super Bowl, that game where Atlanta squandered a 25-point lead in the second half? Facing an seemingly impossible deficit, the Patriots were forced to throw and throw and throw some more. The real Super Bowl MVP James White scored 45.9 PPR fantasy points, meanwhile LeGarrette Blount scored 3.1 points. Because game script.

Game script can drastically skew pass-to-run ratios, because a disproportionate number of fantasy points are scored in the fourth quarter precisely when losing teams are throwing and winning teams are running out the clock.

Here are three running backs to buy based on improving game script this season:

Melvin Gordon: less than half of his 2016 carries came with a lead. That will likely change this season.

Dalvin Cook lands on the Vikings who face a soft schedule in 2017 starting with the Saints in week 1.

-A mild offensive Renaissance is happening in Cleveland, benefitting Isaiah Crowell most of all.

Here are three wide receivers to buy based on a projected game script improvement this season:

-Likely playing in more competitive games, the Falcons must feed Julio Jones even more in 2017.

Dez Bryant could lead the league in touchdowns as the Cowboys shift into passing mode without Ezekiel Elliott.

Cole Beasley was a target hog in limited snaps but his pass volume will spike in Dallas this season.