Is Devonta Freeman fantasy football’s most over-drafted running back?

by _tim______ ·

We need to talk about the most over-drafted running back in fantasy: Devonta Freeman.

At any given point on any given Sunday last season, the Falcons were leading by more than a touchdown based on their +6.8 Game Script. Of Freeman’s close to 300 touches in 2016, only 75 came with the Falcons trailing. That kind of dominance is generally unsustainable year to year. If the Falcons point differential closes in 2017, that means less touches for the front-running Devonta Freeman this season.

A likely game script reversion is exacerbated by the presence of Tevin Coleman. Freeman’s Opportunity Share quietly eroded from close to 75-percent to 59-percent last season as Coleman siphoned precious targets and red zone carries. Even more foreboding, Coleman was the more efficient runner last season based on numerous efficiency metrics from Production Premium to yards per touch.

In 2017, Devonta Freeman will be competing with one of the most explosive running backs in the league for a dwindling share of running back touches this season, and that guy is a first round pick in fantasy football? Good luck with that.