Top DFS Value Plays for NFL Week 7: Andy Dalton and Jacquizz Rodgers

by Brett Squires ·

It appears DFS players have gone in a full 180-degree turn. In Week 6, the overall consensus was to spend up on RB’s and find value at the WR position. Just one week later, injuries and poor match-ups have led most players back to the expensive WR route. This week, it’s the right call. In order to roster those big-hitters, I’ll provide a few value plays that should provide significant salary relief while hitting or beating their value.

Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals

Andy Dalton has quietly been one of the most productive yet efficient deep-ball passers in the NFL. The TD’s are a bit concerning but he’s third in passing yardage and the TD’s are coming. What more could you ask for with a Joe Haden-less Browns secondary? Dalton is No. 1 in the NFL in total air yards and No. 2 deep ball completion percentage.  A big game is imminent in week 7.

Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers

With Andy Dalton, it was about efficiency. With Winston, the volume is absurd. Winston is averaging the third most passing attempts per game and with Doug Martin out another week, I’m not expecting many big changes here. They ran veteran Jacquizz Rodgers into the ground last game but don’t expect the same here.

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars

Oakland’s “revamped” defense has been a complete disaster through six weeks. I believe the Raiders defense will get cleaned up sooner rather than later but until we see some steps forward, the entire Jaguars offense is in play here. Blake Bortles has been a disappoint thus far but fantasy players should expect a solid game against a team that’s yielding the 4th most fantasy points to QB’s.


Blake Bortles Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Buccaneers

I know I just said the workload will be lowered for Jacquizz Rodgers but he’s still very cheap on most DFS platforms and is still a good bet for 18-24 touches. He gets an even bigger boost on DraftKings because of the boost to pass-catchers due to the PPR scoring. The 49ers have been lit up by opposing running backs this season, most notably LeSean McCoy, but they also were burned by one Fozzy Whittaker. Play JackPOP! Rodgers this week.

Mike Gillislee, RB, Bills

He’s not the athlete or college dominator we all crave to see but let’s not get too greedy here. Mike Gillislee took home a 44-yard touchdown run against the hopeless 49ers last Sunday but he has shown in the past that he has a knack for the end zone.  The Bills will not hesitate to feed Gillislee if they capture an early lead. In the final game of last season, he was handed 24 carries but squandered the chance against a very impressive Jets run defense. He also had three touchdowns in five games last season. He’s now scored in three contests this year from a reserve role. It’s all about opportunity and value here, nobody — well, most– aren’t expecting a McCoy-like performance. If LeSean McCoy sits, it should be pretty obvious this play loses most of its appeal.  


Mike Gillislee Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Spencer Ware, RB, Chiefs

This is more of a DraftKings play than anything. He’s locked in as an RB-1 this week heading into a matchup with the Saints. Jamaal Charles recently had his knee swell up and I highly doubt the Chiefs will give him much of anything this Sunday. He’s their priced possession and Spencer Ware is way more than just a serviceable backup. Sub-6k pricing on Draftkings is mouth-watering considering the Chiefs are at home against a porous Saints’ run defense that’s allowed the most fantasy points to RB’s in the entire NFL. Ware is currently first in the NFL in yards per touch. It’s a match made in DFS heaven. 


Spencer Ware Advanced 2016 Efficiency Metrics

Golden Tate, WR, Lions

Savvy DFS players were on Golden Tate last week after Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick were ruled out. The Lions have no choice but to pass the ball and neither Marvin Jones or Anquan Boldin were in store for 15-plus targets. Tate’s abysmal start to the season appears to be over but obviously temper expectations. An explosion similar to last week is unlikely but as long as he sees plenty of Bashaud Breeland this weekend, we should be in store for a pretty solid performance from Tate following a season-high 10 target game. Riddick and Ebron have been ruled out so get Tate in a few of those lineups.


Spencer Ware Advanced 2016 Efficiency Metrics

Jordan Matthews, WR, Eagles

Is this guy crazy? Playing any WR against the Vikes is an intimidating task but follow me here… We know Xavier Rhodes is scary good, luckily that’ll mainly  be Dorial Green-Beckham and Nelson Algholor’s problem. Jordan Matthews runs 68 percent of his routes out of the slot and will likely matchup with the 5-9 Captain Munnerlyn for most of the day. Matthews should be in the 2-4 percent range in terms of ownership and he has the chance to be a steal this week. We don’t recommend him in cash of course but give him a long look in some GPP’s for this Sunday.

Marqise Lee, WR, Jaguars

We’re digging deep here. As stated earlier, the entire Jags offense is worth a look in some capacity. The Raiders will be paying plenty of attention to Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson, as will plenty of DFS players this week. Marqise Lee has quietly been averaging 6.5 targets per game over the last four games. His DFS pricing does not reflect the target share he’s getting, the matchup is solid and Lee could crush his implied point total this week.

Screen Shot 2016-10-22 at 6.28.10 PM

Marqise Lee Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

TE: Jack Doyle, TE Colts

Who would’ve guessed Jack Doyle would have an 87-percent catch rate and have more fantasy points than starter Dwayne Allen? Doyle is dirt cheap and that’s where most of the appeal comes from. Chester Rogers is the only receiver over 6 feet tall and he’s not a major threat to get many red zone targets. Doyle is an uninspiring athlete but he’s looking at a real possibility of having a 95-percent snap share or so. At the minimum price, a single TD reception would likely put him at 3-times his DFS salary. He’s worth a long look this week.


Jack Doyle Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Charles Clay, TE, Bills

Revenge game? Charles Clay and Mike Gillislee were drafted by the Dolphins and have found themselves on the Bills. Clay has five receptions in each of his last three games. With Robert Woods and LeSean McCoy looking doubtful, the passing game will need a playmaker.  Clay is a solid athlete and has seen a 20 percent target share in half of the Bills’ games this year. The Dolphins aren’t necessarily a cake matchup but with safety Reshad Jones out for the year, they’re nothing to be afraid of. Before injuring his ankle last week, he saw a 100 percent snap share in two straight games. The ankle injury is a minor concern but he should play most of this game.

Screen Shot 2016-10-22 at 6.30.24 PM

Charles Clay 2016 Game Log

Cameron Brate, TE, Buccaneers

Stack Jameis Winston and Cameron Brate! Cameron Brate was a disappointment last game against Carolina but a bounce-back game is around the corner. The 49ers give up the 10th most fantasy points to TE’s and Vincent Jackson’s absence can only benefit Brate. It’s not a huge boost in targets but it’s one less 6-5 receiver that Winston can chuck it to in the red zone. Brate has a 26.7-percent red zone target share which ranks sixth among TE’s so far. He’s very cheap and could very well find himself in the end zone this week.