This is the NFL Best Bets Week 6! Here, we provide our best game line bets for the Sunday-Monday NFL slate each week on sportsbooks.
Each week’s article features two to three picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). It’s important to keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always important to line-shop at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
We are coming off a 1-1 split in Week 5. The Falcons got the job done on the moneyline at home. However, the Cardinals lost course in the second half of their home matchup against the Bengals. Joshua Dobbs throwing his first interception was the headliner. For now, it keeps the Bengals afloat in the AFC North with a 2-3 record.
We are now 5-5 on the season and in the profit column. Let’s dive into the NFL Week 6 betting board and look for our second sweep of the season. This time each wager is two-units. It is the first time this season the confidence level on both bets in the article have been in the 2-unit department.
2 units: Seahawks +3 (-112, DraftKings)
Over the last few years, the perceived point value held in hold-field advantage has slightly diminished. Over the league-wide sample of the last decade or so, it is safe to say that home field advantage is worth at most three points in a vacuum. Given this, it looks like we are getting to buy the Seahawks as the lesser team against the Bengals, which reads as a smash spot.
Despite the Bengals tearing it up offensively last week to break out hearts, there isn’t much evidence that Cincinnati is all the way back. In the Week 5 win, the Bengals posted a -0.005 EPA/play, just around league-average. On the year, Burrow ranks No. 28 in adjusted EPA/play and No. 28 in completion percentage over expectation. Additionally, the Bengals rank No. 20 or worse in pass block win rate, run block win rate, pass rush win rate, and run stop win rate. There isn’t much they do at a high level. Therefore, they should be easy pickings for a Seahawks roster that is much improved this season and rank top-ten in all four aforementioned metrics.
Seattle is coming off a bye and now quarterback Geno Smith is without an injury designation. Seattle is 3-1 against the spread this season and 1-0 with a rest advantage. Geno Smith ranks around league-average in adjusted EPA/play, top-12 in adjusted yards per attempt and completion percentage in a clean pocket, and No. 3 in passer rating against man coverage. He will get to pick on a Bengals defense that ranks among league-leaders in man coverage rate. Additionally, head coach Pete Carroll should have no hesitancy running the football down the throats of the Bengals. After all, the offensive backfield is led by running back Kenneth Walker III, who also leads the NFL in evaded tackles. Take the better team to either win outright or keep it within a field goal.
2 units: Patriots +3 (-108, DraftKings)
This wager is about as ugly as it gets on face value. Nobody wants to bite on the Patriots right now as they have looked about as bad as humanly possible over the last couple of weeks under head coach Bill Belichick. They have arguably the worst pass-catching room in the NFL, the worst offensive line in the NFL, and the worst special teams coaching in the NFL. On the other hand, the home team Raiders are coming off a gritty primetime win at home and do not have to travel for this Week 6 contest.
2023 New England Patriots ranks
Special teams DVOA: #32
Pass block win rate: #32
Wide receiver separation: #32
Mac Jones hasn't been inspiring but this organization has done nothing but put him in position to fail. Free him.https://t.co/cnWNnoqhvu
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) October 10, 2023
That is why it should be extremely telling that New England is only underdogs by a field goal in this one. This is because they are going to compete in this get-right spot and perhaps get back in the winning column by taking this game outright.
For starters, Las Vegas has significant injuries on offense. Their two best offensive weapons, Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, are both questionable. Even if they play, they could have some serious trouble against a Patriots defense that still ranks above average in many metrics despite the losses of cornerback Christian Conzalez and Matthew Judon. New England ranks No. 12 in run stop win rate and can easily force the ball out of the hands of running back Josh Jacobs and into the hands of Jimmy Garoppolo, which is bad news for the Raiders. Garoppolo ranks No. 24 in adjusted yards per attempt, No. 21 in true completion percentage, and No. 26 in passer rating against man coverage. The Patriots play man coverage at the No. 9-highest rate in the NFL.
New England Offense
On offense, New England is primed for a rare decent game. Quarterback Mac Jones has been put in a position to fail, but his individual play has not been the main issue. He ranks No. 2 in the NFL in sack probability avoided over expectation (just behind Patrick Mahomes) and No. 5 in catchable pass rate rate. This means he is finding ways to make plays even when scrambling. However, this could also be his first game in a while where he isn’t harassed in the pocket for hours.
The Raiders rank No. 26 in pass rush win rate and No. 27 in EPA/play allowed. This is a spot for Jones to display that he has something left in the tank and is a starter in this league. New England’s team total is juiced to the “over” at 19.5 despite staying under that line in each of the last four games. Expect them to wake up in Week 6 and keep themselves somewhat afloat in the AFC East with a bounceback game ahead of their tough Week 7 matchup against the Buffalo Bills.