Week 15 is one of the most popular weeks for daily fantasy sports as the redraft and dynasty leaguers who were eliminated from the playoffs look to DFS to make Sunday football more interesting.
DraftKings is hosting a $7M Millionaire Maker Tournament:
– $7 million prize pool
– $1.2 million first place prize
– Only $20 to enter
– Top 83,000 finishing positions are paid out
– Starts Sunday, October 4th at 1:00pm EST
Each week, PlayerProfiler and XN Sports outline noteworthy value plays who could either serve as the cornerstones of an optimal cash lineup and/or add upside variance to a GPP/tournament rosters.
My Favorite Cousin
Kirk Cousins, $5,200
Kirk Cousins leads the NFL with a 69.2-percent comp percentage. That is not a misprint. If he were a second-year QB, we would all be lauding Cousins as Washington’s locked-in franchise QB of the future. Unfortunately, Cousins was named the team’s starting quarterback after surviving for years in the Robert Griffin III controversy crucible. A slight-statured fourth round pick, Cousins was assumed to be a stop-gap game manager for a team hitting the reset button.
Then, something interesting happened. Kirk Cousins didn’t suck. Having persevered through a tumultuous coaching change, constant sports media hand-wringing and second-guessing and fan base apathy, Kirk Cousins has demonstrated the necessary arm strength to push the ball downfield — his throw velocity is 59-mph on PlayerProfiler.com, and above average decision-making prowess — his 33 Wonderlic Score is 71st-percentile.
Going back to last season, Kirk Cousins demonstrated enticing efficiency — most notably a 8.4 (No. 2 in the league) yards per attempt. While Kirk Cousins has looked like a generic game manager against above-average pass defenses, he possesses the necessary arm talent and head space to shred bad defenses, particularly at home. Cousins’ home completion percentage is 74.2-percent, his yards per attempt is 8.08, and his home touchdown-to-interception ratio is 12/2.
In week 15, Washington faces Buffalo at home. The Bills allow 21.6 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have lost top cornerback Stephon Gilmore for the year with a dislocated shoulder. The Bills were effectively eliminated from the AFC playoff race after a soul-crushing loss to Philadelphia last week. After Bills head coach Rex Ryan enthusiastically predicted a playoff birth on numerous occasions throughout the regular season, this week’s road game at Washington features all of the trappings of a low-moral letdown game for Buffalo. No one shreds a reeling defense at home quite like Kirk Cousins.
Looking for QB value on DraftKings this week? Play Cousins.
Denard Robinson, $4,600
The best running back pick-up this week is Denard Robinson. Closely comparable to Ronnie Hillman on PlayerProfiler.com, Robinson has a better all-around skill set than T.J. Yeldon on an inefficient-yet-prolfiic offense. Though he lacks the prototypical workhorse RB size necessary to withstand a full workload for an entire season, Robinson has been an effective primary back when called upon.
Denard Robinson posted 4.3-yards per carry and a 75-percent catch rate, enabling a 15-fantasy points per game average as a starter in 2014. As a featured all-purpose weapon for a suddenly high octane 2015 Jaguars offense, Robinson has a 10-point floor and a tantalizing 30-point, volume-fueled ceiling.
Matched up against an Atlanta Falcons defense that allows a league-high 30.9-PPR fantasy points to opposing running backs, Denard Robinson will be both a cash game and GPP staple in week 15.
Michael Floyd, $4,400
Michael Floyd is one of the most prodigious talents to enter the NFL this decade. His prospect profile checked almost every box coming out of Notre Dame:
– Size: 6-3, 220-pounds
– College production: 39.4-percent (75th-percentile) College Dominator, 18.8 (93rd-percentile) Breakout Age
– Athleticism: 113.2 Height-adjusted Speed Score (HaSS), 10.07 (63rd-percentile) Catch Radius
Coming off a highly volatile and disappointing 2014 in which his targets were crowded out by Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown and a quarterback carousel that featured Drew Stanton and Ryan Lindley, Michael Floyd was labeled a boom-bust team No. 3 receiver throughout this offseason. Then, a funny thing happened. Floyd transformed himself into one of the most consistent fantasy performers. After logging a below-fifty percent snap share in week 3, Floyd has posted 10-plus PPR points per game in seven of his last nine games.
Given his playmaker profile, Michael Floyd possesses 30-point upside on a high volume offense that faces a Philadelphia pass defense that allows 43.6 (the most in the NFL) fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. This week, Floyd is the perfect high volatility tournament play, and his surprising consistency has allowed him to be usable in cash games as well.
The New TY
Tyler Lockett, $4,200
Tyler Lockett is the most explosive wide receiver talent on the Seattle roster by a wide margin. Featuring 4.40 straight line speed and 10.96 Agility Score, the college uber producer has looked like T.Y. Hilton to Russell Wilson‘s Andrew Luck on his way to posting 15-plus fantasy points in three out of the last four weeks.
Russell Wilson and a new offensive philosophy are responsible for unLocketted Tyler’s potential in recent weeks. Now missing both Marshawn Lynch and Thomas Rawls, the Seahawks have called 25 or more pass plays in each game since Marshawn Lynch was lost for the regular season with a hernia injury. This week’s the game plan will likely skew pass-heavy once again with Bryce Brown now the No. 1 running back on Seattle’s depth chart.
Beyond volume, Seattle hosts a Cleveland pass defense this week that allows 38.3 (10th most in the NFL) fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers — another juicy matchup awaits Tyler Lockett who just fiested for 104-yards and two-touchdowns on the Ravens incompetent pass defense in week 14. The Seahawks project to throw more than run again this weekend, and Lockett will have his fork, knife and spoon ready.
May the game flow be ever in your favor.