The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 10

by Zach Krueger ·

Week 10 of the NFL season is upon us, and that means it’s time to get back to the bargain bin for three more buy-low DFS running backs. Last week we enjoyed tremendous success, mentioning Le’Veon Bell, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry as three buy-low candidates. The end result was all three running backs finishing inside the top-10, with Derrick Henry walking away as the top running back of the group with 24.90 points against the Carolina Panthers.

In what is possibly the most brutal bye week of the season with six teams sitting out the week (Denver, Houston, Jacksonville, New England, Philadelphia, Washington), it’s time to see what we can get out of the remaining 26 teams this season. Here are your Week 10 bargain running backs.

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

DraftKings: $5300
Fan Duel: $6400

The Bears have been brutal on offense. Despite Mitchell Trubisky‘s inefficiencies and his inability to consistently find any of his offensive weapons, rookie running back David Montgomery has emerged as a bright spot over the last two weeks. When the Bears picked him in Round Three of this year’s draft, the thought was that he’d take over a bellcow roll. With a 30.5-percent (68th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating and 9.6-percent (71st-percentile) College Target Share, there was little reason to believe he wouldn’t eventually see the bulk of the workload. After averaging 13.7 touches over the first six games, he appeared to be far off from reaching the lofty expectations set for him in year one. While the start of the season hasn’t gone as planned for Montgomery, the last two games have brought new fortune to his fantasy owners, which looks to extend into Week 10.

Check out David Montgomery on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Over the last two weeks, Montgomery has totaled 223 yards from scrimmage on 41 carries and seven receptions. He has found the end zone twice, averaging 23.70 points over that span. He has also been one of the more elusive backs in the league, with 34 (No. 15) evaded tackles and a 26.2-percent (No. 15) Juke Rate. Montgomery now draws a matchup with the Detroit Lions, who are allowing +8.45 fantasy points above league average to opposing running backs this season. Considering the favorable matchup, and the fact that Trubisky hasn’t done much to keep the Bears on the field this season, fire up Montgomery as he looks to keep the offense moving for the Bears in the second half of the 2019 season.

Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts

DraftKings: $7000
Fan Duel: $7400

We have now reached the weekly portion of the article where we get excited about a running back with a favorable matchup against the Miami Dolphins. This week, Marlon Mack is our winner. The Indianapolis Colts have been unafraid to run the ball this season, averaging 30.6 (No. 4) team run plays per game. Mack has been leading the way with his 69.1-percent (No. 12) Opportunity Share and 62.8-percent (No. 15) Snap Share.

Marlon Mack Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Mack averages only 13.0 (No. 23) Fantasy Points Per Game, but the opportunity suggests that he can be better. He has finished as the RB15 or better in four of his eight games this season, and has totaled 679 (No. 9) rushing yards on 159 (No. 6) carries to compliment his 22 (No. 15) Red Zone Touches. The Miami Dolphins currently allow +6.15 fantasy points above the mean to opposing running backs this season. If history is any indicator, Mack should be ready to feast. In a wheels up week, he should become the most recent player to run through, over and around the Dolphins.

Jaylen Samuels, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

DraftKings: $6300
Fan Duel: $6200

We had the chance to see Jaylen Samuels as a buy-low player in Week 9 against the Colts. He posted 19.3 fantasy points on 21 total touches for 83 yards, good for the RB10 performance. While he failed to find the end zone, Samuels largely saved his day thanks to his team high 13 receptions on 13 targets. James Conner is listed as doubtful and should miss Pittsburgh’s Week 10 tilt with the Los Angeles Rams. Which means it’s time to toss Samuels into our weekly lineups once again.

Jaylen Samuels Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

Last week against the Colts, we had a chance to see what fantasy gamers love so much about Samuels – his receiving upside. With a 20.2-percent (97th-percentile) College Target Share, he has some of the best hands in the league at the running back position. He currently ranks 16th among all running backs with 26 receptions on the season, and proved that he can be looked to consistently when he racked up 13 receptions last week. On the season, the Los Angeles Rams are allowing -0.05 fantasy points below league average to opposing running backs. While that doesn’t present the most cause for optimism, it’s Samuels’ high work load that we are banking on. He managed a 66.7-percent Snap Share last week while both Conner and Benny Snell sat out. With their absences appearing to be in play for another week, it’s time to capitalize on Samuels yet again.