The Long Gain: Bargain Running Backs to Target in Week 11

by Zach Krueger ·

Navigating the bye week blues remains among fantasy football’s biggest challenges. That road doesn’t get any easier this week with studs such as Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, Chris Carson and Derrick Henry unavailable. Those players make up three of this season’s top-12 running backs by Fantasy Points Per Game. In short, we have real work to do to make up for lost points this week.

Thankfully, we have the tools here at PlayerProfiler to take a close look at the advanced stats and metrics that allow us to identify the best plays of the week at bargain DFS prices. It’s time to weather the storm and put together some DFS lineups ready to cash in Week 11.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

DraftKings: $6300
Fan Duel: $7200

It’s safe to say that holding out to start the season did Melvin Gordon no favors. Austin Ekeler‘s emergence through the first four weeks made Gordon look replaceable. It didn’t help that he started slow once he returned in Week 5. Following his return, he averaged 37.3 total yards in Weeks 5-8, while averaging only 9.0 Fantasy Points Per Game over that span. Thankfully, he has taken full advantage of the recent underwhelming run defenses that have stood in his way. He has posted 242 total yards over the last two weeks, averaging 23.1 fantasy points and 1.5 touchdowns. He finished as the RB3 in Week 9 and the RB6 in Week 10, and now has the chance to plow through a porous Chiefs defense.

Melvin Gordon Advanced Stats and Metrics Profile

The Kansas City Chiefs allow +7.33 points above the mean to opposing running backs this season. Last week, they allowed Derrick Henry to run for 191 yards and two touchdowns, good for Week 10’s RB1 finish. It’s safe to expect similar results from Gordon in Week 11. He has seen over 20 touches per game over the last two weeks and appears to have reclaimed the bellcow role in Los Angeles. Fire him up in Week 11 lineups and watch the cash flow in.

Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers

DraftKings: $6100
Fan Duel: $6700

The 2011 season has been an up and down one for 49ers running back Tevin Coleman. He was injured in Week 1, causing him to miss the next three weeks, and has posted only one top-12 fantasy performance this season in the seven games he’s played. Part of the struggle for┬áColeman and his fantasy production is that he’s had Matt Breida in his way all season. Breida averages 13.9 touches and 10.4 fantasy points per game, but appears unlikely to play in Week 11 against the Cardinals. His impending absence means Coleman has a chance to see a jump in his current 15.1 touches per game. More touches means more yards, and more yards means more touchdowns. At least, that’s how the math should work.

Check out Tevin Coleman on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:

Despite missing three games, Coleman has been the preferred back for San Francisco in the red zone. He averages 3.4 (No. 13) red zone touches per game, and has found the end zone six times. When the 49ers and Cardinals met in Week 9, it was Breida who outproduced Coleman for the week. Breida totaled 92 yards on 17 touches with 11.2 fantasy points. Coleman didn’t fare much better, finishing with 36 yards on 15 touches and 5.6 fantasy points. The rematch will be a home game for San Francisco against a Cardinals team giving up +1.13 fantasy points above the mean to opposing running backs. Without Breida in a game that should feature a positive game script for the 49ers, Coleman should be an automatic plug and play in Week 11 DFS lineups.

Brian Hill, RB, Atlanta Falcons

DraftKings: $4800
Fan Duel: $5900

Was there anything more predictable than seeing an article touting Brian Hill in Week 11 on PlayerProfiler? Chances are you saw this one coming, but it doesn’t come without justification. The Atlanta Falcons will be without their top two running backs this week, with Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith sidelined by injuries. Hill is expected to tote the rock in a big way this Sunday, after he enjoyed a bell cow role in Week 10 against the Saints. He finished with 71 yards on 21 touches and posted 14.1 fantasy points, finishing as the RB13 for the week.

Brian Hill Advanced Stats and Metrics Profile

It’s safe to say that Hill is an Underworld darling. He’s a #GoodAtFootball guy, a fifth-round underdog selected out of Wyoming in the 2017 NFL Draft. We can see in his profile that he boasts above average workout metrics. He also has elite college production, evidenced by his 34.2-percent (79th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Dominator Rating and 7.8-percent (55th-percentile) College Target Share (55th-percentile). Despite being on a team that’s last in the league in rush attempts, he should see plenty of run against a Carolina defense that allows +6.43 points above the mean to opposing running backs. His opportunity is a pure case of addition by subtraction given the backfield injuries. With only rookie running back Qadree Ollison and journeyman Kenjon Barner threatening him for touches, it’s safe to say that Hill’s “Wheels Up” week has arrived.