Breakout Finder 2023 | Top 5 Values

by Jason Allwine · Draft Strategy

We have officially added the 2023 Rookie Class to our best-in-the-business Breakout Finder App! We here at Player Profiler will be bringing you articles all about the Breakout Ratings from this year’s class. This article is all about the best values you will be able to get in your rookie drafts based on information from the Breakout Finder. I’m going to define value as any player outside of the top 5 in their position on our rookie rankings and/or outside of the top 18 in our rookie rankings. Because let’s face it, if you can find value in the back of half the second round and later in rookie drafts- you’re doing a great job. Keep in mind we don’t know landing spots yet which could elevate some players, but these are the guys that meet the previous criteria while sporting a decent enough Breakout Rating.

So just what is a Breakout Rating? The Project

“The Breakout Finder, in its simplest form, was created to help bridge the gap between the “film” and “metrics” communities by providing the most accurate account of a collegiate athlete’s career. The goal was to avoid bias, and offer a completely empirical option that took into account the entire body of work a player provided…Attempting to provide an accurate representation of a player’s production required more than just raw counting stats. It required innovation. To fully understand someone’s production, it meant accounting for who they played with, who they played against, and how they produced while on the field with these factors. These questions helped launch the creation of three different scoring measures: Teammate Score, Dynamic Score, and Level of Competition Score (LOC). These metrics became the drivers of the database and each one carries an ability to raise or lower an athlete’s Output Score. The sole purpose of these three measures is to put all players on a level playing field in an attempt to neutralize the difference between opportunity, competition, and production type. So whether a player is from the Mountain West Conference or the SEC, the Breakout Finder values them accordingly and scores them evenly.”

Note: We only have Breakout Ratings for RBs and WRs.

5. Tyjae Spears, RB

Breakout Rating: 33.8

Rookie SuperFlex Ranking: 16

RB Ranking: 8

Okay, okay, I know I broke the ranking rule immediately but otherwise, there would be zero RBs on the list, so I had to bend the rules a tiny bit. Tyjae Spears is an exciting incoming NFL rookie who boasts an impressive resume. He had an outstanding 2022 season with 1,581 yards and 21 touchdowns and showcased his abilities as a top-notch running back. Spears had an impressive Senior Bowl as well.

Additionally, Spears has a 91st-percentile Burst Score and college yards per carry, making him an explosive player who can create big plays on the field. All of these factors have granted him the No. 6 best Breakout Rating, indicating his potential to make an impact in the NFL early on in his career. Cody’s most recent mock draft has Spears going in the third round, 77th overall, which could be a steal for a team looking for a dynamic and productive running back. And if a team that is looking for a dynamic RB gets Spears, then that likely means he will have plenty of opportunity to be productive for fantasy football as well.

4. Trey Palmer, WR

Breakout Rating: 32.4

Rookie SuperFlex Ranking: 27

WR Ranking: 11

In the immortal words of Cody Carpentier, Trey Palmer is the D.A.W.G. of the 2023 class. Palmer sports an impressive resume as well. He has not only the workout metrics to prove it but also the production- 98th percentile 40-yard dash, 88th percentile Speed Score, 93rd percentile College Dominator Rating, and 96th percentile College Target Share. In 2022 he had a 32.7-percent Target Share which led to 1,043 yards and 9 TDs.

Cody’s mock draft has him falling to the Eagles at the end of the third round which would be a solid landing for fantasy purposes especially if one of A.J. Brown or Devonta Smith were to miss time with an injury. But no matter what, he has the speed to produce on any team if given the right role. He only has the No. 16 highest Breakout Rating, but he does have the No. 7 highest Dynamic Score which essentially quantifies elusiveness based on all-purpose yards. Palmer presents a high upside in rookie drafts given his current ranking.

3. Rashee Rice, WR

Breakout Rating: 44.3

Rookie SuperFlex Ranking: 22

WR Ranking: 8

If you believe in nepotism in the sport of football, then Rashee Rice is your guy. He has the blood of Jerry Rice running through him as he is his nephew. Rice is a top 5 all-time SMU receiver which is a school that has produced Emmanuel Sanders and Cole Beasley to name a couple. He has the No. 5 highest Breakout Rating out of the WRs and had a whopping 1,355 yards and 10 TDs in 2022. Rice commanded a 96th percentile College Target Share at 33.2-percent.

With a 95th percentile Burst Score and above-average speed- he should find himself producing to some degree at the NFL level. Cody has him going in the second round at 44 overall to the Falcons in his mock draft. That’s a decent landing spot, but it won’t see much volume. The best thing to glean from that info is that he will likely go in the second round which means NFL teams also expect him to succeed.

2. Jalin Hyatt, WR

Breakout Rating: 43.8

Rookie SuperFlex Ranking: 24

WR Ranking: 10

Jalin Hyatt didn’t break out until his junior year, but when he did- he truly, truly broke out. In 2022, he piled up 1,267 yards and 15 TDs with an astounding 18.9 yards per reception. He has a 91st percentile 40-yard dash, 97th percentile Burst Score, and 90th percentile college yards per reception. According to Cody Carpentier, multiple NFL teams had Hyatt ranked as the No. 1 WR entering the NFL combine. He was tied for the fastest mph reached during the 40-yard dash even if his time was only 4.40s.

Hyatt has the No. 6 highest Breakout Rating showing that he will likely hit given wherever he lands and utilizes his speed in the proper way. In Cody’s mock draft, Hyatt went 33rd overall which highlights that NFL teams really do value him higher than fantasy football currently is. If you’re drafting now, get him at his second round ADP because once he gets the high draft capital- he will shoot up draft boards.

1. Charlie Jones, WR

Breakout Rating: 33.8

Rookie SuperFlex Ranking: 34

WR Ranking: 16

Charlie Jones has earned the nickname “Charlie Football” for a reason. He is going to be 25 entering the NFL season and only weighs 175 pounds. However, he is the Hunter Renfrow of this class-  touted as the best route runner at the NFL combine by both Cody Carpentier and Alex Dunlap. Despite his size, he still produced at Purdue, gaining 1,361 yards and 12 TDs his senior year. He had a 90th percentile College Dominator Rating, 88th percentile College Target Share, and believe it or not an 85th percentile 40-yard dash. His Breakout Rating is just ahead of Trey Palmer at No. 15 but actually has the highest Dynamic Score of this entire class and 2022’s rookie class.

The closest player to him in terms of Dynamic Score was Kadarius Toney in 2021. Jones is currently held back by his age which is of course a valid concern, but he has all the tools to succeed at the NFL level and presents so much value at his current ranking. He’s going to be one of those guys that you can count on for consistent production early on with a decent floor even if his ceiling won’t be crazy high.