Is Amon-Ra St. Brown a Fantasy Superstar in the Making?

by Trevor Grosz · Best Ball Plays & Strategy

When fantasy season comes around, a player that everyone should have high on their draft boards is Amon-Ra St. Brown. Coming out of USC, St. Brown was not a highly touted prospect entering the NFL Draft. He had an Athleticism Score of 97.8 (No. 37) and fell to the fourth round in the 2021 NFL draft.

Since then, St. Brown has done nothing but produce. St. Brown tied the NFL record for the most receptions through a player’s first two seasons with 196 receptions. In addition, St. Brown has over 2,000 yards and 12 total touchdowns in his career so far. With his consistent production and a loaded Detroit Lions’ offense around him, St. Brown should produce another top fantasy season in 2023.

Consistent Production & Opportunity

From a fantasy perspective, St. Brown has been a consistent producer through his first two seasons in the league. As a rookie, St. Brown finished as WR21 with 227.3 fantasy points in 2021. He improved this mark in 2022 by producing 267.6 fantasy points and a WR7 finish.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2022 Opportunity Metrics

His success in 2022 proves that he should have plenty of opportunities to replicate that success in 2023. St. Brown finished with 146 total targets and 21 red zone targets (No. 8 in both). He was by far Jared Goff’s favorite target, posting a 28.1-percent target share (No. 11) and a 32.3-percent target rate (No. 3) on the season.

The Benefits of a Loaded Offense

The offense being built around St. Brown is another reason he should produce another top fantasy season next year. In 2022, the Detroit Lions finished No. 3 in total yards and No. 5 in scoring offense. They accomplished this behind an elite offensive line that only allowed 24 sacks the entire season.

However, the Lions did this without meaningful snaps from their first-round pick receiver Jameson Williams. While Williams could take targets away from St. Brown, his presence should only benefit St. Brown. With him on the field, St. Brown should find more space to work with underneath and intermediate routes because the defense has to account for Williams’s speed and explosiveness.

St. Brown’s Shortcomings

While St. Brown’s production and the team around him are impressive, he does have his shortcomings. He creates less separation from defenders than other receivers (No. 64 in target separation and No. 56 in average cushion). However, St. Brown makes up for this with his skill as a route runner.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2022 Efficiency Metrics

St. Brown finished with an impressive 52.8-percent route win rate (No. 2). Another shortcoming of St. Brown is that he’s not a threat to go deep. St. Brown had only 13 deep targets through his first two seasons. Also, his average target distance is 6.2 yards (No. 97). However, he makes up for this with his skills after the catch. In 2022, St. Brown finished with 513 yards after the catch (No. 4). Despite having 905 air yards (No. 41), he finished in the top 10 in receiving yards in 2022 with 1,161 yards.

Amon-Ra St. Brown 2022 Zone vs Man Metrics

St. Brown’s consistent production and the team’s recent offensive success prove he should have plenty of opportunities for another excellent fantasy season in 2023. While the emergence of Williams will take some targets from St. Brown, it should ultimately benefit him. Another year with Ben Johnson calling the plays for the Lions should have fantasy managers excited to add St. Brown to their roster for the upcoming season.