Whether you’re the type of 1.01 who lets the league know ahead of time who you’re picking, or you make them all wait, making the first selection can be both exhilarating and nerve-racking. Knowing that 22 top-notch players will be gone before your next selection adds a lot of pressure to getting that first pick correct. In the following rounds, however, drafting from this position grants you opportunities to affect the shape of the draft.
We will be using FantasyPros’ Real-Time ADP as a reference for this exercise in a 12-team, PPR draft.
Let’s dive in.
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Get it Right from the Jump
Round 1, Pick 1 (1.01) | Bijan Robinson | RB, Atlanta Falcons
The case for Bijan Robinson as the best pick in fantasy football is not a hard argument to make. The former Longhorn ranked first at his position in the following PlayerProfiler efficiency metrics: Yards per Touch, Evaded Tackles, Yards Created, and Production Premium.
Robinson put up a whopping 21.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG) in 2025. He did so behind an offensive line that ranked 26th in run block rating at 45. That line is primed for a jump in 2026. It’s a unit not devoid of talent, anchored by four-time All-Pro Chris Lindstrom. After a season marred by injuries and inconsistent play, longtime OL Coach Bill Callahan was brought in this offseason.
Bijan Robinson‘s Explosive Rating
The other popular choice at 1.01 this year is Detroit running back Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s tough to push back too hard against this stance; Gibbs is an amazing back. However, the recent injury to Lions’ center Cade Mayes and the Falcons’ tighter consolidation of targets make me more comfortable pushing my chips in on Robinson.
Pick 2.12 | Malik Nabers | WR, New York Giants
After bursting onto the scene as a rookie in 2024, Malik Nabers saw his second season cut short in Week 4 when he suffered an ACL tear.
Still, in the four games he played last year, the offense clearly ran through Nabers. His 28.2% target share, 55% deep target share, 43.5% first-read target share, as well as his 22.5% rate of slot snaps paint a clear picture.
The former No. 6 overall pick is on track to be back for Week 1. After recently returning to full-speed team drills, the young star wideout needs to log some full-contact practices. A healthy Nabers is an absolute steal at this draft price. To that point, his real-time ADP is 28.4. This leaves us some room as we expect a bump up on draft boards in the coming weeks
Pick 3.01 | DeVonta Smith | WR, Philadelphia Eagles
DeVonta Smith‘s Athletic Profile
Last season, DeVonta Smith finished just outside of WR2 range with an underwhelming 11.9 FPPG. That was while playing behind A.J. Brown on a malaise offense that ranked 19th in scoring and 24th in yards gained.
This year, Brown is gone, and the Eagles also brought in a new offensive coordinator, Sean Mannion. Mannion may be a first-time OC, but I’m relatively certain we won’t see a four-verticals call against a Cover-4 defense with the game on the line.
With a new-look offense and a clear role as the WR1 on his own team, the former Heisman winner from Alabama is poised to reach new heights this year. Selecting him here as your second wide receiver will net you one of the most dangerous combos at the position in your league. Smith is one of my favorite clicks this year.
Pick 4.12 | Tyler Warren | TE, Indianapolis Colts
Tyler Warren came out of the gates strong as a rookie. His 112 targets, 88.3% snap share, 500 routes run, 21 red zone targets, and 80 first-read targets were all top five among tight ends. It doesn’t stop there; his 474 yards after catch ranked second, hinting at his big-play ability.
For the 2026 season, this offense is sans Michael Pittman. He went to Pittsburgh and took his 111 targets with him. Pittman did most of his work at the intermediate level, as shown by his 8.2 aDOT. Warren (along with Josh Downs) likes to work in that same general area, though Warren’s aDOT was a bit lower last year (5.4).
Would it surprise you if Tyler Warren outscored Colston Loveland this season?
30 more Targets for Warren in their rookie campaigns (112 to 82), that number could increase to 130 in 2026 📈🚀
Plus positive TD regression from 4 ➡️ 8+? 🤔🔥 pic.twitter.com/ywp0MyHinQ
— The Dynasty Grill (@FFDynastyGrill) June 5, 2026
Along with everything else Warren brings to the table, he can also tote the rock. He won’t be taking carries from Jonathon Taylor at any time soon, but he could sprinkle in a couple of “tush-push” touchdowns. Over the course of a season, that could be the difference between a TE5 and a TE3 finish.
Pick 5.01 | Bucky Irving | RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After breaking out late in his rookie season, Bucky Irving didn’t quite live up to the hype in his abbreviated 2025 season. After missing Weeks 5-12, he tried to play through a nagging shoulder injury — one that would require surgery this past February.
Bucky Irving‘s 2024 Efficiency Metrics
Going back to 2024, Irving’s efficiency metrics were dynamic. However, his performance last year and the addition of Kenneth Gainwell have suppressed his value to the point where my cursor finds his name effortlessly.
Pick 6.12 | Carnell Tate | WR, Tennessee Titans
You’ve got two running backs, two wide receivers, and a tight end. Naturally, your league mates are assuming you’re getting your quarterback here, right?
The Tennessee Titans have made some big moves this offseason. New head coach, new offensive coordinator, and new alpha No. 1 wide receiver in Carnell Tate sit atop the list.
Carnell Tate‘s Collegiate Production – Courtesy of sports-reference.com
Carnell Tate was the first receiver selected in April’s draft, with the Titans taking him fourth overall. He brings exceptional ball skills and surprisingly smooth route-running chops to Nashville, where he will no longer be in the long shadow of Jeremiah Smith.
This is an example of how using our tools at PlayerProfiler can really help you abuse the ADP of various sites. Carnell Tate‘s Real Time ADP is 78.4. He is ranked 65th overall in PlayerProfiler rankings.
Pick 7.01 | Jonathon Brooks | RB, Carolina Panthers
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
Jonathon Brooks is finally healthy, folks. And, what’s more, Chuba Hubbard is not. Brooks has looked quick and decisive thus far in the preseason. While Carolina is no doubt hoping Bryce Young takes a significant step forward as their franchise quarterback, they are going to continue leaning on the run game. Rico Dowdle, who pretty easily dethroned Hubbard last year, has moved on to Pittsburgh. This is another easy pick.
Pick 8.12 – Quentin Johnston | WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Quentin Johnston‘s Athletic Profile
Last year, Quentin Johnston solidified a role for himself in this offense. He finished as the WR 22 in FPPG, largely on the back of his eight touchdowns over 14 games.
This year, Johnston should take another step forward, as his skills match nicely with new OC Mike McDaniel’s scheme. It’s a scheme predicated on speed and giving guys legitimate YAC opportunities; something in which Johnston excelled in college at TCU.
The team also picked up Johnston’s fifth-year option. They clearly have plans for him.
Pick 9.01 | Brock Purdy | QB, San Francisco 49ers
(Ed note: Flawless execution of late-round QB strategy)
Brock Purdy continues to be one of the best values in fantasy football. After the top two, maybe three QBs, the dropoff is very gradual and slow. For instance, QB8-12 on PlayerProfiler.com are projected within four points of each other (outside of one outlier, who is projected lower).
The former draft day “Mr. Irrelevant” played just nine games last year, but averaged an impressive 20.8 FPPG over that span. This shouldn’t shock anyone; it’s more or less what he’s done since becoming the starter in San Francisco.
Posting a Brock Purdy touchdown everyday until #NFLKickoff pic.twitter.com/pLM5THBh5n
— matt (@mattyac_) August 27, 2026
Is it because of his head coach and their effective scheme? Or is it because of the supporting cast, led by Christian McCaffrey? Or is Purdy just a good quarterback? Does it even matter why?
For more on Purdy, check out Dillon’s article here!
Pick 10.12 | Zach Charbonnet | RB, Seattle Seahawks
It’s unclear when exactly Zach Charbonnet will be back from rehabbing his torn ACL. But what is clear is that Seattle absolutely loves this dude. I haven’t heard anyone mistaking Jadarian Price for Kenneth Walker. And we all know Walker couldn’t keep Charbonnet off the field.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that rookies are often slow out of the gate. If Price struggles early on, or hits a wall mid-season, Charbonnet could be a league winner.
Late-Round Targets & Dart Throws
MarShawn Lloyd (GB), Jonah Coleman (DEN), Rashid Shaheed (SEA), Greg Dulcich (MIA), Justin Joly (DEN)
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Many Successes,
Kyle
