Trading in fantasy football is an important way to make your team better. However, it is also the only controllable way to make other teams worse. In theory, great fantasy football trades optimize the rosters of both teams involved, leaving non-trading teams behind. This series will help to provide some useful tips on players to “buy” and “sell” in trades. It will also provide the proper context to determine when trading for or trading away a specific player makes sense for your squad. For a player to be involved in a trade, there needs to be a market for that player. Unlike your typical “trade for” and “trade away” articles that are geared toward taking advantage of less-informed league mates, this series will consider team context to determine whether you should buy or sell a popular player in the trade market.
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Week 8 Fantasy Football Trade Advice
On the block: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Reason to Buy: RB1 overall season-ending upside
Saquon Barkley has disappointed this season. Almost halfway through the season, Barkley sits at the RB14 overall and is only the RB18 in fantasy points per game. However, better days may be ahead. Barkley is still tops in the league with an 84.8% opportunity share. He also has one of the most favorable schedules for the remainder of the season. This includes games against the Cowboys, Bears, Chargers, and Bills. These teams have let up some of the most fantasy points to running backs on the season. This may be a buy-low opportunity on Barkley that could make your league mates look silly if you are able to get him on your team. This is especially tempting if you are near the bottom of the standings, looking for a high-variance move.
Reason to Sell: Zapped Efficiency and Decreased Opportunity
A large part of why Barkley is not repeating as the RB1 this season is that he is seeing fewer rushing plays. Last season, the Eagles averaged 45 rush plays per game. This season, they are only running 26 rush plays per game. In addition to these decreased opportunities, Barkley has also been less efficient with his touches. He is averaging only 3.8 yards per touch, down from 6.0 last season. He is also averaging 58 yards created per game; last season, he created 75 yards per game. While a good schedule may cure some of Barkley’s efficiency issues, the Eagles will have to become a significantly more run-heavy offense for Barkley to come close to an RB1 overall finish. Trading away Barkley while he still has first-round-pick name value may be a prudent move if you already have high upside players on your roster.
On the block: WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Reason to Buy: QB-proof performance
Another disappointing first-round pick this season is Justin Jefferson, who is the WR18 overall and the WR14 in fantasy points per game. Much of Jefferson’s struggles have been tied to the inconsistent quarterback situation on the Vikings. Jefferson has played first with J.J. McCarthy and then with Carson Wentz. Both Wentz and McCarthy have struggled this season to maintain consistency. However, despite the Vikings’ struggles at quarterback, Jefferson has seen similar volume and usage in the Vikings’ offense compared to previous seasons. He is among the top ten qualified receivers in both air yards and air yards share. He is also in the top five among qualified receivers in yards after the catch. Suppose the Vikings ever get consistency from the quarterback position, perhaps upon McCarthy’s return, with the schedule opening up. In that case, Jefferson will finally reach the expectations of those who drafted him.
Reason to Sell: QB is not getting better
Carson Wentz is set to start this Thursday in what may be his final start for the Vikings as J.J. McCarthy nears a return from a high ankle sprain. Unfortunately, for Jefferson, he has fared much better with Wentz as the starter. Jefferson has two top 12 WR weekly finishes with Wentz under center, compared to none with McCarthy starting. Development is not necessarily linear and can at times be exponential. Whether McCarthy returns a better QB than Wentz is anyone’s guess, but if you are not interested in finding out that answer, it may be a good time to trade Jefferson for as close to his draft day value as possible.
On the block: RB Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
Reason to Buy: Bell Cow
Quinshon Judkins is coming off a career game in which he saw a season high 25 carries and scored three touchdowns, finishing as the RB4 in Week 7 with 26.4 fantasy points. While it may seem like a good time to sell high on Judkins, this is actually a good buy high opportunity. Judkins is averaging just over 20 combined targets and carries per game. He is a locked-in bell cow for the Browns who appear to prefer to run the football as opposed to exposing Dillon Gabriel in the passing game. Look for Judkins’ bell cow usage to continue and acquire him for less than top 12 RB value before he is firmly made part of that crew.
Reason to Sell: The Browns
While Judkins’ talent is undeniable, he does play for a team that is bereft of additional offensive talent. Game script can also be an issue with Judkins, who posted a season low 3.6 fantasy points in Week 6 when the Browns were trailing the Steelers. If your faith in the Browns being the Browns is stronger than your conviction of Judkins as a top 12 running back, use this opportunity to sell high on the rookie.
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