PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Kyle Lesti shares his studs & duds for the 2025 fantasy season.
Grab a cold beverage and settle in, cause I’m breaking down a six-pack of players to help you dominate your upcoming drafts.
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. For the record, anyone who can make it to the damn NFL is not a “DUD”. Nonetheless, here are 3 players I am OUT on at their current price.
The DUDS
D.J. Moore (WR, Chicago Bears)
Moore can still play, no two ways about that. This “dud” perspective comes more from what the Bears have said through their actions than lack of talent on the player’s part.
In April, Chicago drafted TE Colston Loveland at 10 overall, and WR Luther Burden III early in the 2nd round. New head coach Ben Johnson played a crucial role in these 2 picks, especially, according to the Chicago Tribune and Yahoo Sports. Along with the ninth overall pick from last year’s draft, Rome Odunze, the Bears suddenly have a slew of viable pass-catchers.
Moore’s subpar Explosive Rating of 94.6 hints at a lack of big-play ability. His 2024 aDOT of 7.5 was significantly lower than his previous career average of 10.8. Even an aging Keenan Allen was able to muster an aDOT of 9. Moore’s 2024 Dominator Rating of 28.6 percent is decent, but that was last year before the influx of talent acquired this April.
Baker Mayfield (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Despite going more than a full round later than QB6, Patrick Mahomes, Mayfield is an avoid.
We can start right up front. The loss of Tristan Wirfs could have real ramifications. With the 2-time All-Pro Left Tackle set to miss at least the first four games, Dan Fornek dropped the entire O-Line out of the “Elite” Tier in this article.
Some of these Advanced Metrics are downright alarming. Last year, the gunslinger ranked second in both Danger Plays and Interceptable Passes. To his credit, he also ranked second in passing TDs (41). But taking risks at the rate Mayfield does will see that last stat regress closer to the league average, which was 24.5(per team) last season.
Baker Mayfield’s 2024 Production Stats
The 108 Pressured Throws also caught my attention, as this was with Tristan Wirfs in the lineup.
Best to scoop up the value available at skill players in this area of drafts.
Travis Kelce (TE, Kansas City Chiefs)
Kelce is set to enter his twelfth NFL season, and by the end of week 5, he will be 36. Most of his advanced metrics from last season are well above the league average. But his yards per route run did take a hefty dip from 2.01 in 2023 to 1.67 last year. It would be tough to say that Kelce would be an outright bust at his cost, and in fact, I’m not suggesting that. The problem here is his cost versus his ceiling.
His composite ADP is 63.5. In this area of the draft (early to middle 5th round), we should be looking for more. We want players who have the potential to out-produce their ADP by a round or so. For Kelce, this outcome is just not in the cards.
Last season saw the emergence of Xavier Worthy, who really started to shine as the year wore on. He scored 19.6, 20.5, and 22.9 fantasy points in weeks 15, 16, and 17, respectively. Given that, the return of a healthy Marquise Brown and whatever Rashee Rice can contribute this year, the target competition has gotten tougher in KC. Then there is the return of a fully healthy Pacheco, who looks ready to demand his fair share of opportunities this year.
All things considered, Kelce is another player I’ve been drafting around. RJ Harvey, Calvin Ridley, and George Pickens are just a few of the players going right behind him that I would rather take shots on.
Alright, enough negativity…
The STUDS
A.J. Brown (WR, Philadelphia Eagles)
With the NFL’s second-highest PFF Receiving Grade (91.6), Brown is one of the league’s best wide receivers, currently at the top of his game.
Brown’s Explosive Rating (EPX) is 133.1, the best in the NFL. He boasts a gaudy 3.16 yards per route run and a 38.3 percent Dominator Rating. The Advanced Metrics and his tape both show a player who could easily be a first-round talent, so what gives? Namely, Saquan Barkley. The Eagles were able to salt some games away early last year. This allowed them to really lean into their run game, making good use of the freshly acquired Barkley.
A.J. Brown Explosive Rating
The Eagles have a significantly harder strength of schedule in 2025 compared to 2024, with their 2025 opponents having a .561 combined 2024 winning percentage compared to an easier .491 percentage for their 2024 opponents. Their 2025 schedule ranks as the fourth-toughest in the NFL, featuring 11 games against 2024 playoff teams, a total tied for the most in the league. This suggests some tighter contests on the docket this year for Philly, prompting Hurts and co. to air it out more frequently.
Brown is an absolute smash for me in the mid-to-late second round.
David Njoku (TE, Cleveland Browns)
In case you missed it, Joe Flacco is back under center for the Cleveland Browns for the 2025 season. This is fantastic news for the late breakout tight end. Down the stretch in 2023, with Flacco at the helm, Njoku blew up. For weeks 14-17, lining right up with the fantasy playoffs, Njoku averaged 21.8 points per game.
Even last year, with FOUR different quarterbacks, Njoku showed some impressive Advanced Stats and Metrics. He ranked No. 4 in fantasy points per game and No. 5 in Dominator Rating. Njoku, really a freak of an athlete (see below), also garnered 12 red zone targets last year.
David Njoku’s Athleticism Score and Ranks
Njoku’s composite ADP is 87, which is a screaming value. He is the one second-tier tight end I am targeting.
Jordan Mason (RB, Minnesota Vikings)
Mason exploded onto the scene last year, right out of the gate in week one. He averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game in weeks 1-6, including that sixth game where he sustained a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder.
Jordan Mason Explosive Rating
Along with that impressive 120.2 Explosive Rating, Mason also boasted a 4.8 True Yards Per Carry.
Now he’s in Minnesota with an aging Aaron Jones. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell says the team has a “1a-1b” situation at the running back position. Mason will figure to have the short-yardage and goal-line work, while Jones will handle passing-down duties. This means Mason will at least have flex appeal as the goal-line back in a high-scoring offense. This, along with Jones’ age and his injury history, means we could have a massive hit here in the late-seventh/early-eighth round of fantasy drafts.
Wrapping Up
I hope you’ve enjoyed reading this article as much as I’ve enjoyed writing it. My overall takeaway from this article is that the price we have to pay for the players I’ve listed as “duds” doesn’t jive with all the factors working against those players. Contrarily, the “studs” provide a potential massive upside at their costs. Feel free to let me know how wrong I’m gonna be, or even if you happen to agree.
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