It’s fun to hypothesize who the next late-round breakout running back candidate is going to be. One running back who could be this year’s Mitchell-level late-round breakout is a blast from the past: Kansas City Chiefs veteran running back Jerick McKinnon.
Darwin Núñez has been the talk of the town recently. With both Liverpool and Manchester United interested in him, he seems to be the real deal. The Uruguayan international is 22 years old, 187 centimeters tall, right-footed, and plays as a center-forward for the Portuguese club, SL Benfica.
The Indianapolis Colts were on the run-heaviest teams in the NFL last season. Their 499 carries were good for No. 5 in the league and 47 more than league average. A presumed quarterback upgrade from the departed Carson Wentz to the newly acquired Matt Ryan could mean more passing volume in the year ahead, but the strength of this Colts team is their dominant running game. We shouldn’t expect that to go away in 2022.
Continue drafting Jonathan Taylor as an elite RB1 and don’t stress over identifying his handcuff. That role probably doesn’t exist behind him in the same way that it does behind other workhorses like Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery. There just isn’t a player in this backfield with the clear talent to step in and command a three-down role. If you simply must, there are worse at-cost investments than taking a late shot on D’Vonte Price.
We only have one season’s worth of decision making from which to draw conclusions about the way that Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi want to run this team. But with Justin Herbert at quarterback, it seems reasonable that they would continue to be a pass-heavy team going forward. This is a team with both the propensity and the personnel to air it out.
Austin Ekeler has not needed an incredible share of opportunity in this backfield to be an effective fantasy contributor. We should expect him to be productive once again in 2022. Outside of Isaiah Spiller, nobody else on this team should have much fantasy value. He’s just inside my top-10 rookie running backs. Mostly on the strength of the quality offensive situation he landed in. Leddie Brown is vaguely interesting as a very deep dart throw.
Seattle’s quarterback room consists of Drew Lock, Geno Smith, and Jacob Eason. Neither Levi Lewis nor Kaleb Eleby will emerge out of training camp as the successor to Russell Wilson, but why couldn’t they make the 53? Levi Lewis has mobility (1,088 career rushing yards and 14 career rushing touchdowns) and experience operating a run-first offense. Lewis fits how Seattle wants to run (key word: run) their offense and likely has the edge between him and Eleby of making the 53. It will be an uphill climb for either of them.
There were 262 names called during the weekend of the 2022 NFL Draft, but those aren’t the only players who make the transition to the pros. Every year there are undrafted players who make an impact and become marquee names after the NFL overlooked them. 2022 surely won’t be an exception, so it’s worth tracking where these guys land. Every AFC undrafted free agent among fantasy football-relevant positions is listed below.
Justyn Ross led a national-champion team that also boasted Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Amari Rodgers, and Travis Etienne in receiving yards as a true freshman with 1,000. Per Dwain McFarland of PFF, Ross’ career 2.99 yards per route run was the best in the 2022 wide receiver class. He only went undrafted because of a spinal fusion surgery before his junior season. Ross is a great wide receiver project. If he makes the team, he has the chance to work his way onto the same field with Patrick Mahomes. If that happens, he will be very fantasy relevant.
The Denver Broncos were right at league average in total rushing volume last season. Their 55 attempts barely outpaced the league-wide mean of 452.9. They were similarly balanced in the other two years of the Vic Fangio era. They finished within 11 carries of league average in both 2020 and 2019. It’s very possible that those things change this season with the hiring of new head coach Nathaniel Hackett and the acquisition of Russell Wilson at quarterback.
Melvin Gordon re-signed with the Broncos before the NFL Draft. Yet people still draft Javonte Williams in dynasty as if Gordon isn’t on the team. Other than hopes and dreams, there’s no reason to expect him to not share carries with Gordon again in 2022. I’m selling at first round prices. Gordon is likely to have standalone value once again. And he’d be an elite handcuff in the event that Williams takes over a bellcow role. He is one of the best win-now trade targets as a legitimate fantasy contributor who can be had for dirt cheap.
Cam Akers is RB6 on dynasty rankings right now, which is fair considering he is the workhorse on one of the best offenses in the league. Darrell Henderson averaged 13.6 (No. 19 among qualified running backs) Fantasy Points Per Game last season in Akers absence, showing a high floor for Akers in 2022. Sony Michel is probably gone for good as well. Assuming Akers can stay healthy, he should have a solid bounce back season in 2022.
Kenneth Walker has landed on a solid team for RBs, and will have the chance to showcase his athletic profile often since their QB will either be Geno Smith or Drew Lock. The running game should be leaned on heavy, but also has the potential to be abandoned early if the Seahawks fall behind. But a RB who ran for 1,636 yards against Big Ten defenses in only 12 games should be efficient in that offense.
The San Francisco 49ers finished No. 6 in the league in total rushing attempts last season. Their 499 carries were almost 50 more than the NFL average. Kyle Shanahan loves his running game. San Francisco has been a run-heavy team nearly every year of his tenure, regardless of personnel or in-game situation. We should expect that to continue going into 2022.
His current cost is palatable, but I’m still divesting out of Elijah Mitchell and taking cheap shots on Tyrion Davis-Price. Trey Sermon might not be dead either. The main thing is that nobody knows what’s happening in this backfield year-to-year, so treading carefully is the move.
Russell Gage has averaged 11.0 Fantasy Points Per Game in back to back seasons with the Falcons and now will join Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. He will be the WR3 on the offense, but that’s still great fantasy potential. Antonio Brown averaged about 9.0 targets per game in 2021. Gage probably won’t demand that many, but even five targets per game from Brady is enough to get excited about.
In the first round of the draft, the Saints traded up for their next franchise WR: Ohio State WR Chris Olave. His Best Comp is Stefon Diggs, but he’s also faster. He’s a great route runner who will benefit from Jameis Winston’s gun-slinging mentality. With Michael Thomas coming back, Olave shouldn’t receive CB1 coverage, at least to start. He averaged at least 14 yards per reception every year at Ohio State, proving his efficiency. The Saints bet big on him in the draft, and it should work out.
