Contracts & Free Agency

While Irv Smith will not see that many targets in a slow offense that averaged 34.8 (No. 25) Team Pass Plays per Game, his 25.0-percent (No. 6 among qualified tight ends) Red Zone Target Share was higher than all but four of last year’s top 12 tight ends. Kyle Rudolph will vacate 37 (No. 39) targets when he is released. With 70 targets a reasonable expectation in 2021, and provided he continues to stay involved in the red zone, Smith will become the latest late-round, league-winning tight end.

PlayerProfiler followers know that Matt Kelley and the RotoUnderworld team LOVE Adam Trautman. His rookie season did not see him dominate in the box score, but the analytics and advanced stats were promising. He did not record enough stats to qualify for ranking in many of our metrics, but his +6.1-percent Target Premium and +24.6 Production Premium reveal a more efficient option in the passing game for the Saints than the departing Jared Cook.

Chris Godwin and/or Antonio Brown leaving the Buccaneers is a guarantee, and it opens a starting spot for a team that averaged 40.5 (No. 10) Team Pass Plays per Game. The next man up would be Scott Miller, who had the year’s quietest 500-yard receiving campaign. Finishing 2020 with averages of 1.90 (No. 34 among qualified wide receivers) Yards Per Route Run and 1.93 (No. 37) Fantasy Points per Target, he’s a great stash candidate entering the 2021 season. 

Not only does Buffalo cutting John Brown make sense financially, it also opens up more opportunity for a younger, better player in Gabriel Davis to contribute more in an offense that averaged 38.9 (No. 13) Team Pass Plays per Game. Chase Claypool is the only rookie wide receiver to score more touchdowns than Gabriel Davis’ seven (No. 19) this season. Not bad for a player overlooked in dynasty rookie drafts because 14 wide receivers were picked before him in the NFL Draft.

Entering his age-31 season next year, Mark Ingram is likely to be a cap casualty with the Ravens on the hook for just $1.33 million of his $6.33 2021 cap hit. That means they save $5 million releasing him, which makes sense with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the tuck. With Todd Gurley’s contract set to expire, the Falcons appear to have an opening. Ingram ran for over 1,000 yards in 2019 and might have enough juice for one last squeeze, being that he’s toted the rock just 63 times in 2020.

The Lions would save $14 million releasing Matthew Stafford. Staring down a rebuild, it’s a coin flip if he returns to the team in 2021. With a better-than-appears roster, Stafford’s worth the dart throw in what’s set to be John Elway’s final year under contract as Broncos General Manager. A healthy Broncos team in 2021 is a dark-horse playoff contender.