Analytics & Advanced Metrics

As we close in on the first quarter of the NFL season, we’ll break down the high and low-efficiency outliers at wide receiver. Most of these receivers end up in starting lineups more often than not, while a couple may fit more in deeper leagues with multiple flex spots. It’s a fun and eye-opening exercise to use the Data Analysis Tool to sort through the efficiency outliers at different positions.

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon. The guys you have generally not heard from before stop in to drop some tidbits from their weekly game charting process in hopes to give us a sneak peek into the depth of the games each Sunday.

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon. The guys you have generally not heard from before stop in to drop some tidbits from their weekly game charting process in hopes to give us a sneak peek into the depth of the games each Sunday.

Look for any available passing targets on Los Angeles’ and Las Vegas’ rosters. There’s enough volume that even third targets on these squads are usable. In Denver, see if Melvin Gordon is available. While many have already written him off for Javonte Williams, Vic Fangio doesn’t seem to think so yet, giving Gordon 60-percent of the Week 3 carries. Having one of the fastest recorded plays to this point in the season, Gordon still has value in 2021. There will be enough for both he and Williams to contribute this year.

Get on the Bills Train any way you can. Five Bills already have double-digit targets, with (do you mind my extrapolating after three weeks?) Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs, and Emmanuel Sanders all on pace for over 100 targets. At running back, Zack Moss, who may be on your waiver wires, had the most Week 3 running back touches with 16. Devin Singletary posted another 12. There are plenty of touches and fantasy points to go around in Buffalo.

Darius Slayton’s totaled 13 targets in his past two games, including six-plus in each. Now, Kenny Golladay is a game-time decision for the Giants-Falcons game. Either way, the Falcons defense allowed eight [!] passing touchdowns in its first two games to start the season. While the implied point total sits at a lowly 47.5 points, the Falcons defense rank fourth-worst in Pass DVOA.

Zach Pascal’s totaled 11 targets and three touchdowns in his past two games, including five-plus in each. Newly-acquired QB Carson Wentz is active as well. Pascal faces off against the Titans this week – a pass defense that’s allowed six touchdowns in its first two games. The damage includes 36 receptions and 572 yards. The Titans defense rank 10th-worst in pass DVOA as well, while the Colts defense rank ninth-worst.

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon. The guys you have generally not heard from before stop in to drop some tidbits from their weekly game charting process in hopes to give us a sneak peek into the depth of the games each Sunday.

Give Saquon Barkley some holes and he’ll excite. Give him a bad o-line and a terrible rushing schedule, like he faces in 2021, and he’ll have an uphill battle this year. If you have him, field offers. If you don’t own him, don’t look to add him because the price will be too high. He’ll have have some highlight runs but, with that offensive line, not as many as his price would mandate.

If any pieces of this Raiders receiving group are still available, even a Hunter Renfrow or Henry Ruggs if another owner has tired of him, it’s worth getting a piece of this pie to see how it plays out. And, if someone has enough depth at QB, consider making an offer for Derek Carr or, if that owner is sold on him this year, see what other QBs you might be able to acquire off his/her roster.

While Christian Kirk’s not a full-time player, he’s manning the slot role (76.5-percent slot rate) in a high-powered offense. That means he’ll have a high floor. Also, the Cardinals-Vikings implied point total is one of 11 games to break the 50-point mark. While the Vikings’ DVOA is nothing to write home about – ranking No. 18, including No. 21 in pass DVOA. The Cardinals ranked sixth in situation-neutral pace last week as well. More plays = more fantasy points.

The downside for Jared Cook in a great matchup is that his Route Participation rate is a lowly 59.6-percent. That said, his Target Rate is an elite 28.6-percent, so the participation (and Snap Share) can just be the Chargers monitoring Cook’s snaps. Basically, when he is on the field, he is not running empty routes. The Chargers offense totaled 47 pass attempts last week as well. It’s time to smell what the Chargers offense is cooking.

Ezekiel Elliott played 70 of Dallas’ 84 snaps (83-percent), compared to 20 for backup Tony Pollard. And the Cowboys will not play another team remotely as strong against the run until December, when they travel to New Orleans. He is Dallas’ bell cow and will assume that role as early as next week against the Chargers. If you have him, certainly don’t trade him. If you don’t, the price might never be lower so see what it might cost to get him.

Three wide receivers, Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith, were taken in the first 10 picks of this year’s NFL Draft. All three were immediately targeted and produced for their teams in their first NFL games. If you drafted any of them but sat them on the bench in Week 1, don’t waste any more time. Go ahead and start them the rest of the way. They will remain target magnets on their teams.

If you’ve drafted a rookie QB, he’s either starting already or will be very soon. If you’ve got Justin Fields or Trey Lance, be sure you’ve grabbed a low-priced starter with a good early schedule to get you through the first few weeks. Guys like Teddy Bridgewater in Denver or even Sam Darnold in Carolina have easy enough opening schedules to get you through the first few weeks. Then expect your rookie QB to pay off soon, and for most of the season.

When other teams drafting before them (that also needed line help) reached on skill position players, it gifted the Lions with opportunity to select OT Penei Sewell at pick No. 7 overall, adding him to a line that is now top-half in the NFL. Yes, the Lions hired a caveman head coach in Dan Campbell. But they’ve embraced the rebuild. Their time will come. It might be early to move, but be prepared to pounce.