Fantasy Football

Given the shortened offseason, the chemistry Jonnu Smith has already formed with Ryan Tannehill is super important. An 85.7-percent Contested Catch Rate on seven targets combined with a 4.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified tight ends) Drop Rate and 89.7-percent (No. 7) True Catch Rate will ensure he remains a trusted component of a passing game destined to see more work. 

Despite drawing 10 (No. 6) Deep Targets and averaging 9.9 (No. 5) yards of Average Target Distance, Dawson Knox had a 90.0-percent (No. 5) Catchable Target Rate and a 6.3 (No. 3) Target Quality Rating. He averaged 13.9 (No. 3) Yards per Reception and 7.8 (No. 14) Yards per Target. Entering year two, he’s more qualified to play Buffalo’s deep threat role than recently acquired Stefon Diggs, a splash play possession receiver in all but last season. 

History has shown that a healthy Cam Newton is a force to be reckoned with. Superman finished as a top 4 fantasy QB in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2017. Between 2011 and 2018, he rushed for at least 359 yards and has a career average of 7.5 rushing attempts per game. Even a less than 100-percent Newton ran for 488 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) yards in 2018 and provided a nice floor of 34.9 rushing yards per game.

Gardner Minshew ranked No. 5 in both rushing yards per game (24.5) and carries per game (4.8) last year, outrushing the likes of Russell Wilson and Daniel Jones. A weakened defense and improved offensive weapons in Jacksonville also point to more passing volume. In addition to his underrated scrambling ability, a top-5 Deep Ball Completion Percentage suggests that he’s also capable of piling up yards through the air. The sophomore QB is a buy in all formats at his price.

Matthew Stafford’s 2019 metrics show a stud with a 107.9 (No. 6 among qualified quarterbacks) True Passer Rating, a +19.0 (No. 6) Production Premium, and 0.51 (No. 5) Fantasy Points per Dropback. Marvin Jones continues to produce at a similar rate to Kenny Golladay with a much lower cost. Swapping Jones for Golladay also presents monster upside, but at less value. This stack will produce some monster fantasy numbers this season.

Drafting any number of Carolina’s skill position players is a winning strategy this year. Teddy Bridgewater is an extreme QB2 value, with an FFPC ADP of 149.62 (QB25). D.J. Moore is a stud with top 5 wide receiver upside and he is a value in the third round. Curtis Samuel proved his talent in 2019 by leading the league in Air Yards but suffering from a 62.6-percent (No. 105) Catchable Target Rate. This stack presents a strong weekly floor with mega-upside when the shootouts come, and they will.

Austin Ekeler’s 6.9 Yards per Touch and +54.5 Production Premium were both No. 1 among qualified RBs in 2019. That kind of efficiency doesn’t repeat itself, especially when a team is breaking in a new QB and new Left Tackle in the wake of Russell Okung’s departure. With such significant offseason turnover and expected efficiency regression, be cautious of projecting similar production for the Chargers this year.

How likely is it that Raheem Mostert, a 28-year old, former undrafted free agent with a 25.9 (0th-percentile) BMI, matches last year’s fantasy success? If the defense and the running game regress in San Francisco, that will mean more passing opportunities. This confluence of factors makes the team a risky bet to invest in for fantasy this year, particularly in the run game.

The Jaguars are fully committed to Gardner Minshew entering 2020. He ranked No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks in Deep Ball Completion Percentage, making him a perfect compliment to D.J. Chark’s size and speed on the outside. A team constantly facing negative Game Scripts and low-efficiency defenses will tee up Chark to smash his mid-round ADP.

It has been almost two years since we last saw A.J. Green on a football field, but do not forget the player he was before exiting the 2018 season with toe and ankle injuries. In the half a season he did play, Green averaged 2.11 (No. 11) Yards per Pass Route and had a 31.9-percent (No. 6) Dominator Rating, while posting impressive marks in many of PlayerProfiler’s opportunity-based metrics. No wide receiver available at Green’s draft range offers the kind of league-winning upside that he does.

The new-look offensive line in Cleveland will give Browns ball-carriers larger avenues to daylight, making Nick Chubb a leading contender for the league rushing title. Kareem Hunt is equally capable should Chubb go down. While this will be a run-first attack, Baker Mayfield’s projected improvement in efficiency will keep him in the low-end QB1 mix and give Odell Beckham Jr. weekly fantasy WR1 upside.

With the offensive line’s turnaround complete, they should give Houston’s skill players a production boost. Having a group that’s already gelled is an especially meaningful advantage in this COVID-marred campaign, with teams getting precious little time to integrate new players and develop chemistry. While Deshaun Watson is currently the sixth quarterback off the board in many drafts, he is a real contender for a top-three finish even without DeAndre Hopkins.

Though he’ll fight for opportunity with Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb’s 10.0 (No. 9 among qualified wide receivers) yards per target in 2019 indicated that he can still be efficient in the face of middling volume. Yes, injury concerns remain, but the same can be said for his teammates. Given all that uncertainty, Cobb is a high-floor bargain at his ADP – 135 picks after Cooks goes.

Yes, the arrival of Emmanuel Sanders in New Orleans puts a cap on potential target volume, but Tre’Quan Smith showcased the ability to make the most of his targets with a +65.2 Production Premium and 94.7-percent True Catch Rate in 2019. Sanders is no sure bet to stay on the field, either; now 33, his 65.8-percent (No. 4) Injury Probability ranking is cause for concern — especially when you can draft Smith over 200 picks later.

Miles Sanders is costly in drafts this season and deserves to be. He can go No. 5 overall after the big four running backs and still be a value. Sanders presents overall RB1 upside with a top 12 floor. He proved last season that he is a workhorse, and the coaching staff has said multiple times that they plan on using him as such in 2020. The Eagles committed no draft capital or significant money to indicate otherwise.

D’Andre Swift has the same amount of league-winning upside as Jonathan Taylor, but comes at half the cost in drafts. He is set to follow a similar path as 2019 Miles Sanders. The committee approach we have seen in the Lions backfield over the last few years has suppressed his ADP to the fifth round of FFPC drafts. Swift will take over this backfield the same way Sanders dominated in Philadelphia. Build a team that can get you to the playoffs and let Swift carry you to a championship.

Juju Smith-Schuster; yet a hype train that is way out of control. While there are aspects of his player profile to like, there are an abundance of red flags. Similar to Austin Ekeler, the draft price is too costly given the talent and circumstance. His Best Comparable Player is DeAndre Hopkins, but unlike the former Texan, Smith-Schuster couldn’t produce with lackluster quarterback play last year. It’s fair to wonder if the 2018 version of Smith-Schuster will ever be seen again.

The optimism behind Austin Ekeler, and the reason for rostering him, is his receiving skills out of the backfield. He ranked No. 2 among qualified running backs in Targets Per Game (6.8), receptions (92) and receiving yards (993) in 2019. The issue is his struggles running the ball effectively, raising questions about his ability to be a three-down back. Meaning Ekeler’s teammates, Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley, will see far more action than most expect.

Targets and opportunities matter for wide receivers. Last year, A.J. Brown ranked No. 47 among qualified wide receivers with 84 targets, only drawing a 19.5-percent (No. 41) Target Share. Yet, he’s the 16th wide receiver being drafted per FFPC ADP data. His low target and Target Share numbers are unsustainable, and it’s risky to trust a wide receiver with a low target share in a low-volume passing offense. 

The main concerns surround the extreme efficiency paired with a team with such little passing volume. Brown ranked No. 2 in Fantasy Points per Target while ranking No. 47 in total targets and No. 41 in Target Share on an offense that nearly averaged the fewest passes per game. The unsustainably extreme efficiency and the opportunity metrics clash, and Brown’s ADP doesn’t reflect it.