Fantasy Football

Here’s the good news: we had another winning week! That makes three of the last four weeks victorious against Las Vegas. That’s awesome! The bad news is, we only went 7-6 again. We’re still below .500 for the season at 44-55-2. But we’re making progress, and that’s all that matters here. All we’re trying to do here is win bets and fantasy matchups. We’re in the thick of the NFL season now. We should know by now which teams are good, which ones aren’t, and what these teams’ tendencies are. This should help us not only hit more bets but also find out who is poised for big fantasy performances. I feel like we’re about to make a big push here. Let’s get Week 8 rolling!

Injuries suck and fantasy football owners paid the price heavily in Week 7 by losing highly-relevant offensive names like Breece Hall, D.K. Metcalf, David Njoku, and Matt Ryan. Luckily, there exists a ton of value in player props, so we get a new shot every week thanks to playing DFS. Welcome back to the article series where we spot values in player prop over/unders. In these articles, I review selections from the previous week, then give out my favorite player prop pick ‘ems for the upcoming weekend on the DFS pages of Underdog Fantasy and Sleeper.

Tony Pollard has never had a projection this high before (14.99) but has topped it twice in his last six games while splitting a backfield AND he did it against two of the five toughest defenses in fantasy for running backs.

Hurts’ projection is set at 22.49 points on Prediction Strike. He’s hit that in four of six games this season and his price has dipped over 12-percent over the past month. Chubb’s point differential is an absurd 4.5 points. Simply put, Prediction Strike is not high enough on Chubb.

In this article, I’ll outline how to approach pick ‘ems, particularly in the NFL, so that you can construct winning pick ‘em entries like we do in the Underdog Pick Generator and in my article series containing my favorite pick ‘em plays of each week. If you find this article useful, and are drawn to playing player pick ‘ems, you can either play your own favorites or tail ours on Underdog Fantasy’s pick ‘em menu. Upon entry, use promo code UNDERWORLD for a 100-percent deposit match up to $100.

Amari Cooper has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season and he’s finished under 5.0 fantasy points in both games this season. Adam Thielen’s three “bad” games came against defenses in the bottom third of the NFL in points allowed to WRs. Mack Hollins is discount Gabriel Davis. Low Target Share wide receivers with high Snap Shares and Route Participation plus top-10 Average Target Distance.

After a scorching start to the season, Lamar Jackson’s production took a nosedive. To put his poor performance into the appropriate context, Jackson has averaged fewer Fantasy Points per Game than Marcus Mariota since Week 4 (14.68 to 14.80 FPPG, respectively). Talk about a spooky season. The advanced metrics will tell you he’s playing well, and he is, but the Raven’s offense has been uncharacteristically sluggish. After losing their second straight game, this team needs a spark, and they’ll find it tonight. Tampa Bay wields a near league-worst red zone defense, which will give Jackson ample opportunity to find the endzone.

Chris Olave, the Air Yards king, returns to the main slate this week. He impressively is the Air Yards triple crown leader currently ranked first in all major Air Yards related categories. He is a must play in all formats regardless of who is starting at quarterback for the Saints this week and whether Michael Thomas and/or Jarvis Landry are active.

Darnell Mooney’s fantasy’s relevance has been inextricably tied to Justin Fields passing attempts. With Fields passing the football at least 20 times a game from week four onward, Mooney has averaged 99 Air Yards per game, and seen at least five targets in each outing. He is an absolute cash game value this week against the Cowboys and has the chance to go off for over 100 Yards and a touchdown. Mooney needs to be roster in all formats. 

With P.J. Walker at QB, D.J. Moore saw a renaissance, with the most receptions and yards he has had all season in Week 7. Prior to Week 7, Moore was already seeing a 100-percent (No. 1) Route Participation and 97.2-percent (No. 3) Snap Share. Now with a positive trend after getting a new QB throwing to him, Moore can convert that usage into fantasy points.

Taylor Heinicke isn’t that much better than Carson Wentz, with 44 (No. 2) interceptable passes and 6.9 (No. 21) Yards Per Attempt last season. The Commanders also ran the ball more than passing it last week with Heinicke starting, so don’t expect a high pass volume to help McLaurin. A TD-dependent play this week, it is best to avoid McLaurin if you have other options.

Gus Edwards returned to the Ravens lineup just as J.K. Dobbins exited. He immediately made his presence felt with an RB1 performance.

I would exercise caution in all directions here. On one hand, Edwards’ production was much better than his role. Edwards played just 36-percent of snaps and ceded a significant portion of work in all situations, including short yardage and goal line, to both Justice Hill and Kenyan Drake. He received a carry on 70-percent of his snaps.

Andy Reid and the Kansas City Chiefs surprised many in the NFL and fantasy world this week, naming seventh-round rookie Isiah Pacheco as their starting running back. Thus, supplanting 2020 first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire. After fantasy managers spent the following days getting Pacheco onto rosters and starting lineups, on Sunday, despite the Chiefs putting up 44 points, Pacheco laid an egg: eight rushes for 43 yards, no scores, and no targets.