This season, only nine teams have allowed more tight-end receptions than the Detroit Lions. Now entering an offensive game script with a 51.5-point Vegas total (the highest on the Sunday afternoon slate) and a revenge narrative against the team that just traded him, it’s no surprise that T.J. Hockenson’s over 4.5 receptions prop is juiced to -130 on sportsbooks.
It’s concerning that in his last three games that Mike Evans hasn’t topped 11 fantasy points despite facing young cornerbacks that rank outside the top-50 in the Cornerback Rankings. Evans has faced two top-10 cornerbacks this season, resulting in two of his three worst performances on the season.
It’s time Derek Carr gets his flowers. Behind the disaster that is the Raiders, he is averaging 19.27 (No. 11) fantasy points per game and has thrown at least two touchdown passes in every game since week 9. What he lacks in efficiency, he makes up for with his aggression. He’s airing it out with 9.1 (No. 5) Air Yards per Attempt. With 30 (No. 3) Money Throws, we’re even seeing a clutch gene from Carr. He’s been automatic since week 9 and is a top-12 option against a Rams defense that has given up nearly 20 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks.
The Titans allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs entering Week 13. Their secondary has allowed three 100-yard receivers in their last two games. Starting slot corner Elijah Molden is hurt and has missed most of the season. So, Kirk is poised to see large volume against a weakened defense this week.
Neither George Pickens nor Diontae Johnson have scored over 20 fantasy points this season. Pickens has two top-12 finishes while Johnson has none. Pittsburgh has scored over 24 points in a game just once this season, while Pickett has thrown for over 200 yards once in his last five games.
This will be the last week I take a league-wide view of NFL backfields in this column. With the playoffs approaching and trade deadlines largely passed, the utility of analyzing players not already on your team, and not available on the waiver wire reduces significantly. That’s why, instead of focusing on usage shifts in backfields generally, I want to instead focus on the best opportunities for playoff running back stashes.
Chris Olave is the clear alpha wideout for the Saints. The rookie has stepped up big for the team, leading them in both Targets (50) and Receiving Yards (433). I like Olave’s ceiling on any given week as he’s cleared the 100-yard receiving mark three times already this season.
Godwin is the preferred option in this week’s matchup after shredding the Browns for 12/110/1. Godwin has been reliable, having seen double-digit Targets in five of his last six contests.
Justin Fields practiced in full on Thursday and is averaging 6.84 yards per carry this season. He has at least 47 rushing yards in every game since Week 3, at least 60 yards in every game since Week 6, and at least one rushing touchdown in every game since Week 7. David Montgomery ran for 122 yards at an 8.13 yards per carry clip against Green Bay in Week 2. Fields and Montgomery, heck even Darrynton Evans if he gets 10 touches again like he did last week, is set to smash against this Packers’ defense.
We will work under the assumption Vegas is sharp about the 49ers playing from ahead in Week 13. This means San Francisco has to find scoring somehow and production from one of their many weapons, especially in the end zone. We’re choosing Kittle to do that for us because this season the Dolphins have allowed the No. 6-most receiving yards per game and third-most receiving touchdowns to tight ends.
In his last three games, Robert Woods has had 7, 7, and 6 targets. During this stretch, he managed a 6-69-0 stat line against Jaire Alexander and the Packers has SIX red zone targets total. Woods’ season has been a disaster as a whole, but that’s why he’s still available in 60-percent of Sleeper leagues.
Josh Allen managers can rest easy knowing his UCL injury isn’t the detriment to his fantasy production that many feared it would be. Producing 21.2 fantasy points per game with two games of 40+ pass attempts since the scare, he’s confidently the rest-of-season QB1. He’s still not afraid to run. He carried the rock 10 times for 78 yards and a score in Week 12. Against a Patriots defense that has allowed solid fantasy performances to talented quarterbacks, Allen is a top-10 option.
