Strategy

Deshaun Watson has been super efficient aggressively throwing the ball down the field this year. He has recorded 664 (No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards, 8.4 (No. 7) Yards per Attempt, and 8.5 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt with a 108.8 (No. 8) True Passer Rating. Good things happen when Watson throws to Will Fuller. In a game projected to shoot out with a 54-point total, expect multiple splash plays from these two.

Joe Burrow’s passing volume makes him appealing week in and week out for daily fantasy. While some will be scared off going against Baltimore, the pass volume and expected Game Script give Burrow a high floor. We’re targeting Tee Higgins this week mainly due to price. He’s $4900 on DraftKings despite taking over WR2 responsibilities. He’s commanded over 100 Air Yards in each of the last two weeks. That downfield target role makes him more valuable in tournament settings as we look to capitalize on big plays.

With a middling projected point total, and given the Colts defensive scoring stats so far, many DFS gamers may be scared off this Colts-Bears matchup. However, those defensive stats came against the Jaguars, Vikings, and Jets. Not exactly a murderer’s row. Given the expected volume and increased efficiency in the Chicago passing game, paired with the favorable CB matchup, a Nick Foles-Allen Robinson stack provides tantalizing upside with low ownership.

In what should be a high scoring affair, target Cam Newton (priced at QB10) and both of his leading receivers against the Chiefs for maximum upside. N’Keal Harry and Julian Edelman have combined for over 50-percent of the Patriots Target Share, which increases to almost 60-percent of the red zone targets. That red zone activity combined with Newton’s goal line rushing ability gives this stack a monopoly on Patriots touchdowns.

The Rams-Bills game projects to be a high scoring affair in which the Rams are underdogs. Given the expected Game Script, Jared Goff will be forced to throw. When he does, Cooper Kupp will be the beneficiary. With Goff and Kupp, we have slight underdogs in a projected high scoring affair who have been efficient to this point with a dream defensive matchup. We get that with low projected ownership and price; Goff is QB19 on DraftKings.

Despite being a rookie, Joe Burrow fits the mold to power out big time fantasy performances for himself and his teammates. His 10 (No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks) Deep Ball Attempts and 759 (No. 3) Air Yards demonstrate his aggressive nature. It hasn’t materialized in the box score yet, but the volume A.J. Green has seen is undeniable. His 22 targets rank No. 4 among qualified wide receivers, while his 338 Air Yards rank No. 1.

With Kenny Golladay ruled out again, the Lions facing a burnable Packers defense in Week 2. Only priced at $3800 on DraftKings, Quintez Cephus is close to a free square this week. While missing his top target and facing mostly positive Game Script, Matthew Stafford still dished out 42 (No. 6) pass attempts. Combine that passing volume with his 8.8 (No. 6) Air Yards per Attempt and we have a QB ready to put up massive numbers.

This week, the Chargers face the fearsome Kansas City Chiefs. Given the offense they’ll be going against, they will have no choice but to unleash Taylor given the likelihood that they face negative Game Script. With Taylor costing only $5300 (QB23) and Williams at only $4200 (tied for WR60 and $1500 cheaper than Keenan Allen), this stack presents maximum upside while unlocking salary for a loaded RB corps.

With Teddy Bridgewater ($5900) priced outside the top 12 QBs, D.J. Moore’s elevated salary ($6600) becomes more palatable. Sportsbooks have the Raiders favored by a field goal, which means the Panthers will be forced to throw often. Moore will vacuum up targets against a particularly weak secondary. Favorable game state, favorable matchup, and depressed price. These are the ingredients for a stack to smash.

Against San Francisco, we could be looking at Kyler Murray throwing 40-plus times while chipping in some rushing yards, and Christian Kirk getting 10-plus targets, all for under $12K. This stack gives us differentiation, potential for huge volume with big play upside, and keeps our budget open for other favorite plays.