Strategy

Reduced slates are my favorites to play. With fewer games to analyze, the threshold on playable options increases as you require less ceiling from each play to plausibly wind up in the optimal lineup. With fewer options to construct lineups, popular builds and players are further consolidated by the field. This leads to clear strategic inflection points.

In traditional slates, stacking hits a point of diminishing returns. Even in a shootout, the third or fourth highest scoring position player on a team is unlikely to produce enough raw points to ever hit an optimal lineup. The shorter the slate the more you pick ‘games’ over players.

The NFL playoffs are here and I couldn’t be more excited. Outside of Thanksgiving, there isn’t a weekend I like more for DFS than the Wild Card, which is why I’m creating a series based on building the best cocktail for each slate. We have familiar teams, offensive stars, and chalk to leverage on both Saturday and Sunday.

Flyers are like bitters. They are made to bring out the aromatics with some flavor, but if you overdo them, it’ll kill your cocktail. Two dashes is preferred: one Angostura and one orange. Finding the perfect flyer is challenging, which is why you don’t want to add too much. However, if you pick the right one – such as Danny Amendola in Week 18 – it will pay off big.

The 2021 regular season is over, which means absolutely nothing to those of us who obsess over fantasy football. I kept seeing tweets reading “Week 18 sucks for fantasy” and “It’s stupid to have your fantasy championship in Week 18.” While I agree with the latter, I loved the final week of the regular season and capitalized on the irregularities. However, the season isn’t finished, and a big reason is the Gauntlet from Underdog Fantasy. 

Instead of focusing on stacks and correlations, look for values from those who can get you past the first round and into the green. Treat these drafts as auctions rather than DFS entries. The immediate ROI is significantly more crucial than the future opportunity of a stack. Players like Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckhams, and Elijah Mitchell can be the 2021 version of Ben Roethlisberger, Chase Claypool, Marquise Brown, and Kareem Hunt.  

The second toughest slate – only behind Week 1 – is upon us. The DFS matchups for Week 18 are not easily predicted as there are vast directions each game could go. With seven teams from each conference now making the playoffs, what used to be a throwaway week for fantasy, is now one we can play in hopes of some high-scoring contests. However, where we found values prior to 2020, are now areas with questions.

Although he plays mostly out of the slot, whenever slot corner Byron Murphy lines up there, the Seahawks move Tyler Lockett to the outside. After a massive performance from D.K. Metcalf in Week 17, DraftKings pumped his price up $500 and I expect the field to follow. I’ll be off Metcalf outside of a couple of lineups in Week 18. To finish off the stack on the Seahawks, I don’t mind running Rashaad Penny out with Russell Wilson.

The behemoths of all behemoths. There are a plethora of options to choose from the matchups on the Week 17 DFS slate. 14 games are upon us with no byes and no games on Thursday or Saturday. As a result, there’s little reason to fade players due to the spread of ownership projections. However, keep in mind the vast landscape also creates high levels of volatility, and aiming for the ceiling is a must.

When I go with the Dak Prescott-Amari Cooper-Tony Pollard stack, I’ll run it back with Christian Kirk in the slot against (hopefully) Jourdan Lewis. Trevon Diggs doesn’t travel to the inside and will likely line up on A.J. Green throughout the game. Zach Ertz makes sense as well, and don’t sleep on Antoine Wesley.

The best way to cut through the field like a hot knife through butter is by unlocking a unique player with sky-high upside. When assessing your last selections, in particular from teams such as the Chiefs, Buccaneers, or Packers, of which the entrenched skill players are selected early, prioritize contingent value. Essentially, if a player at their position gets COVID, who is most likely to benefit, and how great is that benefit?

Trey Lance gets his second start Sunday, and what if he wins the last two games to secure the 49ers into the playoffs? Would Kyle Shanahan really turn away from the man he mortgaged his future for? The highest ceiling version of this team is with Lance unlocking a newfound ceiling, and providing elite fantasy production on the ground as San Francisco challenges for a title.

A savvy way to attack this slate for daily fantasy football tournaments is stacking Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase against the burnable Ravens secondary. With recent inconsistencies and big days from his teammates, Chase should go underplayed this week which presents an appealing leverage opportunity for DFS tournaments. Another tactic involves playing the less popular side of the biggest shooutout. This week that’s Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson who is simply seeing too much volume to be worried about CB matchups.

Offseason best ball debates raged on about whether maximizing advancement or ‘super-teams’ was a stronger strategy. While this divide played out on the margins, it is front and centre in playoff best ball. The inclusion of two first round byes adds a layer complication to the strategy. If you stack both bye-teams you are virtually drawing dead to advance past round one, with even one bye-stack hurting your odds.

In general, I think 1QB or 2QB builds are viable. If your quarterback’s team is unlikely to receive a bye, you are likely reliant on them playing four games to win the tournament anyhow. Given you likely drafted three of his skill players, I think it is reasonable to say your team is so reliant on him having strong fantasy production each game anyhow, pairing him is redundant. However, it comes down to a cost, benefit analysis.

With field salivating to play Gabriel Davis this week, pivot off the chalk to an underplayed Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs as the unquestioned target alpha in that offense. In the wake of the DeAndre Hopkins injury, A.J. Green is being forgotten about despite his fantasy friendly role in Arizona’s high-powered offense. He’s too cheap to ignore this week.

With the field salivating over the Buccaneers Bills game, let’s identify the best leverage points in order to build tournament winning upside lineups. Paying up for Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill creates a unique stack opportunity on discounted popularity with the highest ceiling on the slate. Or look to the Cowboys with Michael Gallup as a central piece of the offense still priced in the mid $5k range as part of a Dak Prescott stack.