DFS

I saw Mark Andrews as an efficient target hog who operates down the field with a top-five fantasy finish already on his resume. Looking back, I regret not pounding the table for him more. However, we can’t simply ignore the effects of preseason injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards that certainly influenced Baltimore to air out the football more often.

Rondale Moore was barely old enough to vote and produced 1,471 yards of offense. I’m far from a film grinder, but his freshman tape is beyond impressive. I learned not to buy into purely the landing spot and especially not to obsess over coach-centric analysis. I already knew better than that, but I fell into the trap anyway. No matter what I believed about Moore, his 9.4 (1st-percentile among qualified wide receivers) College Yards Per Reception should’ve been a red flag.

No less than three league-winning wide receivers emerged from ambiguous situations in 2021. You won’t have trouble naming them. Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase and Deebo Samuel all recorded top-5 fantasy seasons in 2021 and ascended to wide receiver royalty. They all came from truly ambiguous WR situations: 2021 was just one season. But over the last six, trends have developed which have implications for fantasy WRs in the future. More top-scoring players will emerge from ambiguous WR situations in 2022 and beyond.

The rookie hype is real in fantasy, but the hype is well-founded. The NFL is enamored with rookie wide receivers, too. There were 17 wide receivers taken in the first three rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, tied with 1994 and 2007 for most rookie WRs drafted in the first three rounds ever. Fantasy drafting is all about finding edges. Many fantasy managers move away from ambiguity because they equate it with uncertainty. Actually drafting wide receivers from ambiguous situations is a surer thing than seemingly more certain situations.  Move toward ambiguity when drafting receivers!

Cooks is no stranger to producing in the face of adversity. He’s proved repeatedly no matter who is in charge of getting him the ball, he will produce. He’s posted six 1,000-plus yard seasons in eight pro seasons, doing so with four different teams over that span. Throughout his tenure, he finished the season outside the top 24 wide receivers in Fantasy Points Per Game merely once.

Brandin Cooks provides value in every league format, especially for those who prefer a Hero RB or Robust RB approach. The fact that he can be had after Tyler Lockett (ADP 46.5), Gabriel Davis (ADP 66.3), and Darnell Mooney (ADP 63.3) in Underdog is criminal. To make matters worse he is equally overlooked in dynasty leagues. He is currently being drafted as the 38th wide receiver off the board in dynasty startups, following aging and less opportune players such as Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett and Odell Beckham.

Every NFL season, millions of fantasy football players around the globe lose leagues as their “stud” early round selections fall flat on their backs. The phrase “forgive and forget” is widely under-appreciated by the fantasy community. With special thanks to the advanced stats and metrics available on PlayerProfiler (and a bit of logic), we among the underworld strive to overcome our biases and find 2022 quarterback bust bounceback candidates among the sea of disappointment.

Late round quarterback has always been a viable fantasy football strategy and continues into 2022. Having a young stud is always nice, but there are plenty of available starters that will absolutely be on championship rosters. Russell Wilson is the least expensive QB1 this offseason. Other players like Matt Ryan and Jimmy Garoppolo present a strong case as value selections in fantasy drafts.

The final week of DFS is upon us: The 2022 Super Bowl. Regardless of how you did during the season, everything you’ve done can be thrown out the window. There is a minimal method to the madness outside of a few key stats. Teams have two weeks to prepare, which means if there is a weakness, the other team will find it. 

We have to find a way to get those studs in our DFS lineups for the Super Bowl. So outside of Samaje Perine (tentatively), I’m not playing those flyers—not even if there was a fire. However, not playing a dart throw means you have to get creative with your lineups, especially if you want to get one of the top four options in your lineups. 

Ride the Evan McPherson hype train to the bank. Mcpherson has hit this line in 12/19 games this season and has nailed 4 field goals in every playoff game this year. Not only has he been kicking hot, but all kickers this postseason have been performing at a high-level. Kickers in the 2021 postseason have averaged 1.92 field goal attempts per game and have a 89.1-percent success rate. Lock in the captain of the Bengals Swag Factory to go Over 1.5 Field Goals Made.

Van Jefferson Longest Reception Over 17.5 is a good bet because he has been a sneaky deep threat this year. Jefferson has a 13.3 (No. 11 among qualified WR) Average Target Distance (ADOT) and 16.0 (No. 7) Yards Per Reception on 5.2 Targets Per Game. As a result, he has hit this line in 16/19 games this season! Borderline lock confidence on this one.

Prop bets are becoming staples of the Super Bowl, and every year we look to have fun with some of the random ones. For example, “Will a player drop the trophy?” or “What color is the Gatorade?” However, I’m interested in the ones I can predict. So I turn to Underdog because I like the odds, and their app is easy to use. 

I firmly believe we will see the first wide receiver since Greg Jennings in 2011 haul in two touchdowns during the Super Bowl. I still like Kendall Blanton, but without Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp should have far more red-zone-designed plays. With two touchdowns, you don’t need a massive performance in the air, which is why I will pair combinations of Kupp’s OVER in fantasy points with the other receiving option’s overs in yards. 

The final Pareto Principles of the year is underway. This column focuses primarily on the strategy and game theory elements of DFS. I do not discuss the individual matchups of players. Instead I am basing my stances on what the field is expected to do, and how to capture a similar ceiling with a unique build.

The conference championship is no time to cling to summer romance. Since returning from injury in Week 17, Elijah Mitchell has just six catches in four games for 18 yards. He also has just one score in that time, losing high-leverage carries to Deebo Samuel and all passing downs to Kyle Juzczyk. His high carry total provides a floor but not an insurmountable one if he’s kept from the end zone.

There are three quarterbacks in this Conference Championship round with three stacks you can feel confident in for DFS. If you want to get spicy, you could even include Jimmy Garoppolo in hopes the 49ers can’t run the ball, George Kittle gets involved, and Deebo Samuel takes a couple of dump-offs to the house. However, in the playoffs thus far, you haven’t won money unless your quarterback put up over 30 points.

The Sazerac has two possible bases to start with, pending on who you ask. Some believe the official cocktail of Louisiana and staple of New Orleans used a cognac due to the area’s connection to French spirits. Others believe it was made with rye whiskey and is currently is the more popular build. It’s the perfect cocktail to discuss the Conference Championship for DFS. Make the base with your liquor preference as long as it’s one of the two, just as this slate will likely have two options to stack.

Prior to the year, our excitement regarding Ryan Tannehill was based in his high-efficiency paired with elite weapons. For the first time since Week 7, all of Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones will on the field for the Titans. While I am loath to attack the first game of a playoff slate, my exception may be with Tannehill. Play the former Aggie stacked with A.J. Brown and a bring back of your choice and you ride with a unique construction generating leverage off Joe Burrow and Derrick Henry.

Packers-49ers is a high volatility game with two slow-paced teams. However, the high-level skill players in this game provides a ceiling which will not be efficiently rostered in DFS contests. In their earlier meeting, these teams lit up the scoreboard for 58 combined points. In a similar shootout,  it is plausible Davante Adams and Deebo Samuel are the two highest scoring receivers on the slate. I will also be over-weight vs. the field on Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle in this game which offers asymmetric upside for its projected ownership.