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Despite a mere 14-percent target share last season, the Chiefs paid Sammy Watkins like a number one receiver in the NFL. In a strong free agent class, Watkins signed a 3-year contract for $48 million dollars, with $30 million guaranteed. Watkins is now the fourth highest paid receiver in the NFL based on average annual salary.

Since 2014, Demaryius Thomas has seen his targets decline each season and in 2016 Emmanuel Sanders recorded only seven fewer targets than Thomas. The following year Sanders and Thomas were neck-in-neck for targets with 42 and 44 respectively before Sanders sustained a Week 5 ankle injury that derailed his season. With Thomas’ ADP climbing to 4.12, Sanders provides greater value with ADP of 7.11.

Why drafting Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowksi back-to-back in the Scott Fish Bowl is a diabolically genius draft tactic.

Dak Prescott’s weapons and projected game script are problematic. Kyle Rudolph, Greg Olsen, and Delanie Walker should enjoy resurgences this season.

In the last five years, only six of the 15 quarterbacks drafted top-3 at the position actually finished top-3. The average finish was instead QB8. During Watson’s 6-game streak, he threw 18 touchdowns on just over 200 attempts, a touchdown for every 11 throws. Russell Wilson, in last year’s QB1 season, threw one TD every 16 attempts.

While the Saints did lean more run-heavy than they have in the past, Brees will continue to enjoy the benefits of having Alvin Kamara as a receiving option. The team has also added Cameron Meredith and Tre’Quan Smith, both exciting young talents, but Brees doesn’t need to be better in 2018 to exceed expectations. All he needs is for the team’s touchdowns to fall more in line with historical production.

An adequate passer and an exceptional runner is a good combination for fantasy football (a la Cam Newton, Michael Vick). There is no way the fantasy ceiling for either Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen approaches that of Lamar Jackson, so getting him after both traditional pocket passers is a steal.

Tre’Quan Smith checks a lot of boxes, finishing above the 60th-percentile in key metrics from College Dominator Rating to Breakout Age to Speed Score. Looking the part of a proper NFL flanker, if Smith went to Alabama, he would have conceivably been selected in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Alvin Kamara should be a top-5 pick in fantasy football leagues. Do yourself a favor and draft three quarterbacks in the Scott Fish Bowl.

A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, and Stefon Diggs are not alike but they are all buys this season.

The Jaguars do have 141 vacated targets from last season, as per the RotoUnderworld World Famous Draft Kit, and Seferian-Jenkins should certainly see a good chunk of them. The current makeup of this Jaguars team means a true breakout is unlikely in 2018.

Jared Cook is intent on making people think this year will be THE year he truly breaks out. Well, we’re heading into year ten and still waiting. To his credit, Cook did actually lead the Raiders in receiving yards with 688 in 2017.

The Texans, Cardinals, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Bills will struggle to reach Vegas’ expectations.

Tyrod Taylor avoids turnovers at a Tom Brady-level. Ty Montgomery is the back to own in Green Bay.

Tyreek Hill finished as a top ten wide receiver in PPR last year, but he was the only wide receiver since 2000 to finish as a WR1 in fantasy football despite seeing less than 20-percent of his team’s overall target share and less than 10-percent of his team’s red zone target share.

Tyreek Hill does not have a clear path to significant volume. Hill saw just 105 targets in 2017, 22nd among wide receivers. The addition of Sammy Watkins via free agency means Hill has more competition for targets, potentially leading to fewer targets next year.

While Lamar Miller may be a fake bell cow that we should be cautious about in dynasty leagues, his 2018 value stems from opportunity. D’Onta Foreman is still working to get back onto the field after a devastating Achilles rupture in November. Foreman would not put a timetable on when he will be fully healthy, but when does return, expect Lamar Miller to stay on the field due to his pass catching ability.

Marshawn Lynch dominated the NFL in Seattle because he was so difficult to tackle in open space. In 2017, he was the best in the NFL at making defenders miss. Lynch posted a 43.6-percent (No. 1) Juke Rate and had 99 (No. 2) Evaded Tackles.  He can still play.

Christian Kirk checks more boxes than most second round picks. Tre’Quan Smith is the most underrated rookie wide receiver.

Justin Jackson will be a factor this season. Nyheim Hines should have a more productive career than Jordan Wilkins.