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Same Faces, New Places: Forecasting Players in New Environments

by Tyler Strong, July 31, 2019

Jared Cook enjoyed a career year with Derek Carr in the midst of Amari Cooper’s departure and general dysfunction. Cook joins the the Saints who attempted a mere 33.7 (No. 29) pass plays per game last year, Brees had 93 red zone attempts. Guess who had a 26.3-percent red zone target share and an insane 32–percent end zone target share in 2018? None other than The Cook, baby.

Devin Funchess is a great pick in the mid-to-late rounds of redraft and best ball leagues. His spiked weekly touchdown upside is as high, if not higher, than receivers being selected around him such as James Washington, D.K. Metcalf and TreQuan Smith.

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Breaking down Justice Hill’s league-winning upside

by Josh Crocker, July 30, 2019

Justice Hill has league winning upside. Playing for a team who could lead the league in rush attempts, and behind an aging Mark Ingram, Hill will see early opportunity. Ingram hasn’t had over 52.4 -percent of his team’s RB Opportunity Share in the last two years. Hill has displayed catch passing skill and elite break away potential with his 4.4 40-yard dash 97th percentile speed.

When Hill’s speed and athleticism are put on display that discount will evaporate. His success is not dependent on an Ingram injury. If it just turns out that Ingram is at a place in his career where he’s most effective with 40-50 percent of the work Hill will be relevant.

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These No. 2 running backs can be fantasy football league winners

by Alex Johnson, July 29, 2019

Jaylen Samuels poses a real threat to James Conner’s passing downs work and is a much better athlete. At 6-0, 225-pounds, Samuels possesses a 105.9 (83rd-percentile) Speed Score with a 119.2 (53rd-percentile) Burst Score and 11.21 (72nd-percentile) Agility Score. In comparison, Conner lands in the 63rd-, sixth-, and 18th-percentiles, respectively.

In the two seasons Mark Ingram shared a backfield with Alvin Kamara, he averaged 14.75 fantasy points per game. Latavius Murray is a more explosive version of Ingram and an elite goal line bacl. There is a good chance he tops that weekly average. Since entering the league in 2014, Murray’s 25 rushing touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line rank fifth among all active RBs.

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Using touchdown trends to mine tight end value in fantasy football

by Denny Carter, July 29, 2019

Over his injury-plagued career, Jordan Reed has averaged nearly seven targets a game for a seasonal pace of 112 targets, and an average of .38 touchdown catches per game. That works out to about six touchdowns per season. Best of all: he costs nothing in redraft.

Maybe Jimmy Graham is simply and plainly washed. Maybe all the injuries and subsequent surgeries have taken their toll and he’s never again going to be the machine sent from the future to score touchdowns. But it’s hard to ignore the discrepancy between his 2018 touchdown rate and his career numbers, bolstered by otherworldly touchdown production in New Orleans.

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The 5th Annual Late Round Tight End Roulette

by Ray Marzarella, July 26, 2019

There are two main factors that go into locating a Late Round Tight End Roulette candidate: elite age-adjusted college production and exceptional weight-adjusted agility. Mike Gesicki’s 10.86 (99th-percentile) Agility Score ranks only behind converted wide receiver Derek Carrier and George Kittle in the PlayerProfiler database.

Mark Andrews smashed expectations in his rookie year. His 552 receiving yards were the fifth-most by a rookie tight end in the last decade. His 16.2 (No. 2 among qualified tight ends) yards per reception and 11.0 (No. 2) yards per target ranked only behind O.J. Howard.

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The Golden Rule for Avoiding One-Hit Wonders in Fantasy Football

by Kyle Dvorchak, July 25, 2019

Phillip Lindsay ended the season with a wrist sprain which required surgery. The Broncos should rightfully see this as a reason to dial down the diminutive back’s workload next season. Between a downtick in touches and the subtraction by addition known as Joe Flacco, Lindsay will struggle to be a valuable pick inside the first six rounds of fantasy drafts.

The biggest threat to James Conner will be Jaylen Samuels. Samuels played a mix of tight end and running back at North Carolina State but made the full switch to running back after joining the NFL. In his three starts for Pittsburgh, as a rookie, Samuels was targeted 12 times and went for 105 receiving yards.

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