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Leveraging the NFL’s most volatile players for fantasy football upside

by Matthew M. Stevens, October 11, 2019

With Sam Darnold set to return from his bout with mono, Robby Anderson’s fantasy football outlook subsequently returns from the grave. A true boom- or-bust field stretching archetype, Anderson boasts 4.41 (92nd-percentile among wide receivers) speed with the ability to beat defenses over the top. His impending breakout game looms large, though it might have to wait one more week.

The Broncos have allowed five rush TDs across the first five weeks and also let Leonard Fournette rush for 225 yards. Their defensive line ranks No. 27 in run blocking per Football Outsiders. Derrick Henry beats stacked fronts against bad teams. That’s it. Fire him up in cash games and see about making a play for him in redraft ahead of his next blowup game.

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Cheap DFS Lineup Makers for Week 6

by Taylor Smith, October 10, 2019

While other DFS gamers will struggle to navigate the 49ers backfield, sharps will be finding a way to fit Matt Breida into their lineups. He has been showcasing why athleticism matters in athletics, parlaying his 127.7 (89th-percentile among qualified running backs) SPARQ-x score into a 7.7-percent (No. 6) Breakaway Run Rate.

With Sammy Watkins leaving Week 5 early, the undrafted Byron Pringle from Kansas State finally got a shot and he did not disappoint, hauling in six of nine targets for 103 yards and a score. Pringle has only run 35 routes on the season, but has a 21.6-percent (No. 3) Hog Rate. With more snaps and the trust of Mahomes, Pringle will continue to pop in this offense.

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DraftKings Value Plays and GPP Targets for Week 6

by Matthew Gajewski, October 10, 2019

Since Drew Brees’ injury, Alvin Kamara averages a 79-percent Snap Share and 16.3 rush attempts per game in the Saints’ offense. He notably retained his receiving role under Teddy Bridgewater with 6.7 targets per contest. As elusive as they come, Kamara ranks No. 1 with 47 in Evaded Tackles, showing the ability to create on his own in this offense. 

After a rough start for all Cleveland players, Odell Beckham saw his salary reduced to $6,800 prior to Week 6. Positively for the entire Brown’s offense, Seattle ranks bottom-ten in sacks and QB Hits, affording Baker Mayfield extra time in the pocket. This raises Beckham’s potential ceiling and creates an opportunity to land a GPP-winning score.

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3 Scorching Hot DFS Takes: Week 6

by Kyle Dvorchak, October 10, 2019

Because the Rams run 46 pass plays per game, staying on the field as often as possible gives Robert Woods an incredibly high target floor and ceiling each week. Additionally, Brandin Cooks is questionable to play this week due to a concussion he suffered in Week 5. If he doesn’t suit up, the volume ceiling is limitless for Woods and Cooper Kupp.

Based on his efficiency in prior years, current volume and current red-zone work, Alvin Kamara is likely to start scoring touchdown soon. He faces Jacksonville on Sunday. A week ago Christian McCaffrey went to town on them for over 40 fantasy points. Dropping 30 on them is well within Kamara’s range of outcomes.

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Mike Evans and The Biggest Week 5 Fantasy Busts

by Granola Jeremy, October 9, 2019

Although Jacoby Brissett has 10 passing touchdowns, No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks, he is middle-of-the-pack in most passing metrics on Player Profiler. Touchdown regression was likely, and his eight-to-three Interceptable Throws to Money Throws ratio exemplifies that.

On the season, Mike Evans is tied for the lead among wide receivers with 12 Deep Targets, leads the position with 619 yards of  Total Target Distance and is averaging 20.4 (No. 5) yards per reception. Because of his role and shadow-ability, Evans is the ultimate high-ceiling/low-floor wide receiver.

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Fantasy Football Trends to Watch – Week 6 Edition

by Matthew Gajewski, October 8, 2019

So far this season, D.J. Chark has notched 485 receiving yards and five touchdowns. His opportunity notably continues to rise in the Jacksonville offense. Isolating his last three games, the second year pro ranks third-overall with 357 Air Yards, while seeing 24 targets.

Jordan Howard ranks slightly ahead of Miles Sanders in most efficiency metrics, but Sanders’ value as a pass catcher keeps him relevant in this offense. With a 44.8-percent (No. 32 among qualified running backs) Opportunity Share, Sanders remains in play as a flex option in most weeks.

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Gerald Everett Awakening and Other Week 5 Waiver Targets

by Josh Crocker, October 8, 2019

In the last two weeks Gerald Everett trails only Austin Hooper in tight end Target Distance. In that span of time Jared Goff targeted Everett 19 times, which he converted into 12 receptions and 180 receiving yards. He has emerged as the lead pass catching tight end in an offense that is throwing the ball 45.3 times per game, No.4 overall.

When Sammy Watkins left the game, it created an opening for Byron Pringle. He made the most of his opportunity. This UDFA has managed to stick on an NFL roster, the Chiefs’ NFL roster no less, and now has found a way to playing time. In Week 5 Pringle did much more than just soak up snaps, he was targeted 9 times by Patrick Mahomes, which resulted in 103 receiving yards.

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Week 5 Lessons Learned: Will Fuller and Allen Robinson Regression Extravaganza

by Tyler Strong, October 7, 2019

Everyone knew it was coming, but few could’ve predicted a 14-217-3 line for Will Fuller in the biggest get right game of the season. Fuller saw 16 targets against a ragged Atlanta secondary that has been so bad, folks are calling for Dan Quinn’s job. Headed to Kansas City next week, look for Fuller to stay relevant.

Allen Robinson enjoyed a bounce-back on a day where massive scores overshadowed a Raiders upset in London. In a season of backups outperforming incumbent starters, Daniel has wisely locked onto the Bears’ best offensive weapon. An upcoming schedule full of potent offenses (NO, LAC, @PHI, DET, @LAR) should spell negative, pass-heavy game script and continued success.

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Wide Receiver vs. Cornerback Matchups to Target: Week 5

by Jesse Reeves, October 6, 2019

Josh Gordon has been up and down from a fantasy perspective this season, but this is finally the week that gamers have been waiting for. Against Josh Norman and Washington’s No. 29 ranked Pass DVOA, per Footballoutsiders, Gordon is a lock button play in Week 5.

With the expectation of increased volume in Davante Adams’ absence, Marquez Valdes-Scantling’s 10.9 (No. 49) Fantasy Points Per Game is a conservative floor this week. Chidobe Awuzie is averaging 12 (No. 52) Fantasy Points Per Game Allowed and has three games this season where he’s allowed 10 or more fantasy points to WRs.

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It’s Still Too Early To Drop O.J. Howard

by Edward DeLauter, October 5, 2019

After O.J. Howard’s extremely disappointing start to the season, frustrated owners who had to spend a fourth or fifth round pick on him in fantasy drafts are ready to bail. With an impeccable athletic profile and a history of past production, no tight end on anyone’s waiver wire should offer the potential that Howard has.

While Howard has only seen twelve (tied for No. 27 among qualified tight ends) targets, he has continued to remain on the field. More importantly, he has remained an active participate in the Buccaneers passing game. Howard is ninth among all tight ends in both Snap Share and Route Participation.

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