Jordan Love will re-prove the Developmental QB Myth. Jon Gruden is chasing the next Tyreek Hill in Henry Ruggs.
Packers drafted A.J. Dillon to get leverage on Aaron Jones. Miami had an underwhelming draft.
Jonnu Smith’s dynasty owners have watched his role with the Titans grow from his rookie season to this past season. His improvement from 2018 to 2019 was both from a statistical and efficiency standpoint. He’s an amazing football talent, and the Titans realized this halfway through the season. Fantasy football production is all about opportunity, and Corey Davis won’t prevent Smith from ascending in this offense and become the No. 2 passing option in a NFL offense in 2020.
Smith’s breakout season will not be a surprise, it should be expected. The analytics and trends throughout the 2019 season are foreshadowing his fantasy football ascent. Enjoy getting him at his ADP outside of the top 100 this season, because it won’t be this low again until he exits his prime. Securing a full-time role in the Titans offense with a quarterback upgrade in Ryan Tannehill, Smith is set to build on his TE1 numbers from Weeks 14-16.
Atlanta leads the NFL in Vacated Targets this offseason, with 258 up for grabs. The team brought in Hayden Hurst and Todd Gurley to try and offset the losses of Austin Hooper and Devonta Freeman, but with a shortened offseason and no wide receivers added to the roster, expect Russell Gage’s Target Share to rise. He will have an enormous opportunity to produce in this pass-heavy offense and should demolish his current ADP.
Finishing the season with the second-most receiving yards on the Packers despite not playing until Week 6 is an amazing accomplishment. Even more impressive are the 1.71 (No. 26 among qualified wide receivers) yards of Target Separation and 1.98 (No. 26) Fantasy Points per Target that Allen Lazard posted. Considering his athletic profile and efficiency metrics from last year, you should be hoarding him at his current best-ball price of WR62.
Christian Kirk’s name has gone cold in fantasy circles due to the addition of DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona. There are reasons to believe the move won’t hurt the younger wideout, though. Opposing defenses are sure to key in on Hopkins, and Kirk is familiar with quarterback Kyler Murray. Keep in mind, Chris Godwin wasn’t considered the No. 1 in Tampa Bay, but that didn’t stop him from a producing a stellar third-year breakout season. It won’t stop Kirk either.
In 2020, the Bears will have an upgrade under center in Nick Foles. With Allen Robinson locked in as the No. 1, the offense needs a boost from another pass catcher. Ted Ginn Jr. was added during the offseason, otherwise there is little competition in the way of Anthony Miller becoming the No. 2 on an improved offense this coming season. Foles will need another weapon in the passing game, and Miller is the answer.
Brandin Cooks is a special talent who’s had a nice career to this point. Deshaun Watson is a terrific young quarterback and an upgrade for Cooks from Jared Goff. The problem is, the Texans ranked No. 14 in scoring with DeAndre Hopkins. Cooks is not a player who can simply be swapped for Hopkins, a prototypical X receiver, in this offense. He has the talent to fill that role, but has yet to be a target hog in the NFL. If growing pains exist, this will be a below average offense.
The Broncos want Melvin Gordon to be their lead back, and they will give him every opportunity to seize that role. They’re paying him significantly more money than Phillip Lindsay, and Graham Glasgow was signed to bolster the offensive line. That said, if he continues to struggle against stacked fronts, it’s highly likely the team will turn back to the runner who’s moved the chains for them the previous two seasons. This has the potential to be a good offense. Despite that, Gordon’s floor is terrifying.
Despite finishing last year with 14.9 (No. 19 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points per Game, Marvin Jones’ current ADP puts him at around WR40. After posting a +23.4-percent (No. 15) Target Premium and a +18.4 (No. 14) Production Premium, he does not appear to be slowing down with age. The Lions get back a healthy Matthew Stafford on a team that added little of consequence to the passing game. It is wheels up in Detroit for Jones and Kenny Golladay to dominate targets again in 2020.
D.J. Chark’s breakout last year was incredibly impressive considering the QBs throwing him the ball. Pairing Chark with Dede Westbrook provides an inexpensive stack on a team that averaged 39.4 (No. 10) pass plays per game last year, with what should be better QB play and a crumbling defense. They did spend a second round pick on Laviska Shenault, but with a stunted preseason, don’t expect the raw prospect to command many targets early on.
Calvin Ridley has become an efficient producer at the NFL level and has improved each season. In 2018, he led all rookie receivers with 12.9 (No. 26 among qualified wide receivers) Fantasy Points Per Game and was the WR26 overall. He improved on his rookie season in Year 2, finishing with 15.0 (No. 18) Fantasy Points Per Game. Ridley showed he is an emerging receiver in the league last year, posting three WR1 and four WR2 fantasy weeks in 14 games.
Ridley is poised for a third-year breakout on an offense with high passing volume and an established WR1 in Julio Jones. Doesn’t this sound familiar? In 2019, Chris Godwin ascended in his third year alongside established WR1 Mike Evans. There were plenty of targets to go around with the Buccaneers passing the ball 630 (No. 4) times. Godwin jumped from a 15.3-percent (No. 67) Target Share in 2018 to a 22.2-percent (No. 25) mark last season. This is the expectation we should have for Ridley.
Evan Engram racked up 467 yards and three touchdowns with an 83.9-percent (No. 5 among qualified tight ends) Snap Share last year, despite injuries limiting him to eight games played. The Giants have solid wide receivers, though none who will command a Target Share resembling that of a true number one. The opportunity is there. Should he avoid the injury bug this year, Engram is headed for a top 5 fantasy finish.
Plenty of hype surrounded T.J. Hockensen during his rookie season in 2019, but the top-10 draft pick didn’t live up to expectations. After a massive NFL debut with six receptions for 131 yards and a touchdown in Week 1, he produced little the rest of the way before an injury cut his season short. Despite losing his quarterback halfway through the season, Hockenson managed to accrue 59 (No. 20) targets before suffering his injury. With Stafford healthy, he is primed for a big leap in 2020.
I recently participated in a superflex, TE premium dynasty startup and wrote up my approach. Like last time, I interviewed a fellow drafter with a different strategy than mine to get some insight on why he drafted how he did and what played into those decisions. While I went with a draft skewed toward younger, hyper-athletic players, my fellow drafters executed unique strategies that kept me intrigued throughout the startup.
Last time, I talked to Justin Edwards of 4for4.com about his QB-TE stacking approach, and today I wanted to share my conversation with Michael Lucatra, who got off the 1.01 for a treasure trove of picks.
Matthew Stafford averaged 6.9 Deep Ball Attempts per game last season, which was nearly double the 3.7 attempts he averaged over the previous five seasons. That aggressiveness allowed Stafford to post 0.51 (No. 5 among qualified quarterbacks) Fantasy Points per Dropback and 20.8 (No. 4) Fantasy Points per Game. If Bevell continues to call plays that suit Stafford’s cannon, the 2020 Lions can produce fantasy point totals resembling the 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
If looking for a young dynasty asset to build around, T.J. Hockenson is an obvious candidate. He didn’t have the most productive rookie season but, at the young age of 22, he still has time to develop into an every-down weapon for the Lions. Hockenson also has one of the most impressive prospect profiles we’ve ever seen, with above-average size-adjusted athleticism across the board, a 24-percent (74th-percentile) College Dominator Rating, and early-first round draft capital.
