Tua Tagovailoa has as much upside as any rookie quarterback. Is Justin Herbert undervalued in superflex?
D’Andre Swift is the one elite running back prospect who did not land in a best-case scenario. J.K. Dobbins has No. 1 running back in fantasy upside.
Jalen Reagor comes into a situation as the instant No. 1 receiver in Philadelphia and should become an instant fantasy beneficiary as someone with serious contested catch and deep-ball abilities. His quarterback is not afraid to throw deep or into coverage, allowing for plenty of opportunities for splash plays. He has the chance to be a pumped up Brandin Cooks and should be rising up every dynasty player’s rookie board.
When Jerry Jeudy was drafted No. 15 overall to the Denver Broncos, there was almost an audible crash as he fell down many analysts’ rankings over the weekend. With the addition of Melvin Gordon, the Broncos are more committed to the run game than ever. Jeudy’s fate lies in the hands of Drew Lock’s ability to become a hyper-efficient quarterback at the next level. This is dynasty and situations are subject to change, but with a Jeudy breakout unlikely over his first few seasons, he falls from WR2 overall into the WR5 range.
Cam Akers’ value is surging in dynasty leagues. Ke’Shawn Vaughn won the NFL Draft.
Devin Singletary should be worried about Zack Moss. CeeDee Lamb will be fully unlocked by Dak Prescott.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire won the lottery. His skillset already made him the perfect weapon for any offense. Not only was Edwards-Helaire a target magnet with a 10.2-percent (76th-percentile among qualified running backs) College Target Share, but he had suction cups for hands, catching 55 of his 58 looks. He’s also incredibly elusive with the ball in his hands, wiggling past defenders with his 128.7 (89th-percentile) Burst Score. With his 32.4 (89th-percentile) Body Mass Index, he’ll double as a stout workhorse on the ground.
One quiet riser in the rookie ranks was Anthony McFarland. The Pittsburgh Steelers grabbed the speedster out of Maryland as a nice insurance policy for James Conner. Given Conner’s lengthy Medical History Report, McFarland may pay off for them as soon as 2020. His touches will be limited as a rookie, but he has the skills to deliver splash plays and should earn more work. Despite seeing the third-highest jump in Lifetime Value among rookie running backs, he’s still a project in dynasty leagues.
In both rookie drafts and startups, my policy is almost always to trade back early. It’s likely that a number of assets will be of similar value up top before positional scarcity can take place. Moving back and acquiring even more blue chip players is a big plus. I drew the 1.03 in this superflex draft and it was tough passing on Lamar Jackson, but I traded the 1.03 and 3.03 for the 1.06 and the 2.07. Those picks turned into Ezekiel Elliott and Chris Godwin.
The second half of the draft was all about upside and depth. In Rounds 15 and 16, I selected two running backs with promising profiles that needed changes of scenery to become relevant once again. With Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon ahead of him, there’s hope that Royce Freeman gets shipped out of Denver this summer or in season and has a chance to prove himself. Matt Breida walks into a high value role as the best receiving back on a pass-happy Dolphins team with only Jordan Howard in town.
The last time the Green Bay Packers spent a first-round pick on an offensive skill player was back in 2005 when they surprisingly selected Aaron Rodgers. Fast forward 15 years and, in one of the deepest wide receiver classes in living memory, Rodgers must have been secretly hoping that drought would come to an end. It did, but not in a way that Rodgers would have wanted. Instead, the Packers threw away a fourth-rounder to move up and select Jordan Love, his eventual replacement.
The Detroit Lions have tried to tell us how they feel about Kerryon Johnson, but we just won’t listen. They don’t want to use him as an every-down workhorse. They want a running back committee. Still, we write and speak about how good it will be when Johnson is finally handed the keys to the Lions rushing attack. The team’s early-second round selection of D’Andre Swift should finally convince the Kerryon truthers that this is not going happen.
More incompetent franchise: Houston or Jacksonville? What’s next for Cam Newton and Jameis Winston?
Duke Johnson, Rashaad Penny, and James White are strong buy-low running backs. Who is more likely to be eviscerated by the NFL Draft: Kerryon Johnson, Todd Gurley or James Conner?
The rookie running back takeover hit in a big way during the first two nights of the 2020 NFL Draft. We have to be excited about Ke’Shawn Vaughn, a player who has all the key metrics required to thrive in the right landing spot. When Tampa Bay called his name on Day Two, that need came to fruition. Still, there is already a lot of noise about how Ronald Jones was a draft winner and not nearly enough hype behind Vaughn yet.
Jones can only artificially suppress Vaughn’s value for so long. Expect the hype train to start picking up steam and his draft position to then rise exponentially. A dream landing spot in a high octane offense that’s looking for an all-purpose back is almost too good to be true. If Bruce Arians is true to his word about Vaughn being an every down guy, then the ceiling is already scary high. There is league winning potential for as soon as this year. Do not miss out.
Targeting Miles Sanders and Josh Jacobs in fantasy football auction drafts. Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook need to contract extensions.
Melvin Gordon exposed the NFL’s devaluation of running backs. Opposing forces are pushing and pulling on Nick Chubb’s dynasty value.
Dak Prescott was exceptional in his 2019 contract season. His +22.8 Production Premium ranked No. 4 among qualified quarterbacks, but the Dallas Cowboys have not yet locked him down with a long term contract, for reasons best known to themselves. Instead, Prescott must prove himself again whilst sitting on the franchise tag in 2020. Drafting CeeDee Lamb gives the Cowboys and Prescott arguably the best wide receiver trio in the NFL. There will be no excuses for him in 2020.
While Green Bay’s moves, and the organization’s apparent desire to switch to a run-based offense, are not exactly good news for Aaron Rodgers, the lack of any high pedigree pass-catching reinforcements is great news for the incumbent receivers on the Packers. Primarily, Davante Adams. He was No. 4 in wide receiver Hog Rate in 2019, enjoying a 30.3-percent share of the Packers targets. This workload may be similar in 2020, albeit with fewer total targets.
