A primary objective in any fantasy draft is to find that ever-so-coveted value. Rostering players that outproduce their draft position is key to winning in any fantasy league. The running back position yields a shorter shelf life than others in today’s NFL, and teams are less willing to pay them second contracts. It’s the most essential position to accrue value in, paving the way to fantasy football glory. Here are four late round running back values whose advanced stats and metrics make them potential league-winners this season.
Matt Breida (FFPC ADP: 96.93)
An undrafted free agent from Georgia Southern, Matt Breida’s workout metrics are eye-popping. At 5-9, 195-pounds, he boasts upper-percentile grades across the board. Most impressive, the 90th-percentile marks in both the 40-yard dash and Burst Score. Breida ran for over 1,400 yards in his first two college seasons before a down final year.
Breida was an efficient back in San Francisco. He averaged 4.6 (No. 10) and 4.8 (No. 9) True Yards Per Carry over the past two seasons, with two top-6 finishes in Breakaway Run Rate. Now a member of the Miami Dolphins, the 25 year old finally has a chance to be a feature back. With the lowly Jordan Howard his lone competition, Breida is primed for a big 2020.
Duke Johnson (ADP: 125.39)
The name Duke Johnson has circled fantasy leagues for years. Many have patiently awaited a breakout; a true explosion into fantasy relevance. Though it has yet to happen for him, the seeds must again be planted for his ascent in Houston. Yes, the Texans traded for David Johnson, but the veteran will hit age 29 this season and has struggled with health and consistency in recent years.
Check out Duke Johnson’s 2020 Projection on PlayerProfiler’s “World Famous” Draft Kit:
Despite playing second fiddle to Carlos Hyde in 2019, Johnson held a +22.1 Production Premium, good for No. 15 at the position. He also averaged 4.6 (No. 11) yards per carry and 6.5 (No. 2) yards per touch. The staff in Houston have yet to fully commit to Johnson, but 2020 is a different animal. The Texans have little depth outside of the two Johnsons, and should the broken down vet struggle, then the Duke shall feast.
Damien Harris (ADP: 231.82)
Damien Harris had a disappointing rookie season. While many predicted the second year back from Alabama would be a big part of the Patriots offense, the theory never came to fruition. Yet, there is hope. Despite sharing the field with Josh Jacobs at Alabama, Harris was effective. He produced two seasons with over 1,000 rushing yards while posting an impressive 6.6 (87th-percentile) yards per carry during his collegiate career.
At 5-10, 216-pounds, Harris boasts above average 40-yard dash and Speed Score marks. Better yet, he owns a 123.4 (75th-percentile) Burst Score. The Patriots need weapons for young quarterback Jarrett Stidham, but a lack of cap space not only prevents them from adding players, it may lead to the release of current ones (cough-Rex Burkhead). There’s a lot to like about the sophomore, and though Sony Michel is the lead man, Harris is set up to make noise this season.
Travis Homer (ADP: N/A)
While there isn’t much water cooler chatter involving Travis Homer, there should be. At 5-10, 201-pounds, the 21 year old registered upper-percentile marks in the 40-yard dash and Burst Score, with an above average Speed Score. Homer only appeared in five games as a rookie, though he showed promise the final two weeks of the season. In Week 17, the young back garnered five receptions and ten carries for 92 total yards.
The Seattle Seahawks signed Carlos Hyde during the offseason to backup incumbent Chris Carson. However, Hyde is nearing 30 years old and is a replacement level talent. Carson’s flaws are well known, which leaves Rashaad Penny, who is set to begin the year on the PUP list. That is not a mountainous depth chart to climb. Not to mention his Best Comparable Player; Homer is discount Matt Breida.