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Wide Receiver-Cornerback Matchups to Target: Fantasy Football Week 5

by Aaron Stewart, October 10, 2020

Pierre Desir’s 92.9-percent Catch Rate Allowed is the worst among cornerbacks that have been targeted more than three times. Wide receivers covered by Desir average 3.14 yards of Target Separation Allowed when the pass arrives at the wide receiver. That will prove problematic for Desir once again this week with DeAndre Hopkins averaging 2.04 (No. 23 among qualified wide receivers) yards of Target Separation.

Jeff Gladney is credited with allowing the most yards per route cover (2.46) according to PFF. Tyler Lockett averages 0.54 (No. 14) Fantasy Points Per Route Run and 37 (No. 16) Routes Run per Game. There are 30 cornerbacks with a higher Slot Rate than Gladney’s 25.8-percent mark. Of those cornerbacks, only four allow more than the 14.8 Yards per Reception that Gladney does. Good luck stopping Lockett in the slot.

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NFL Monkey Knife Fight Props: Week 5

by Cody Carpentier, October 10, 2020

With over 90 total yards in each of the first four games and three total touchdowns, James Robinson sits No. 6 in total fantasy points among running backs while averaging 19.1 (No. 9) Fantasy Points per Game. Houston’s No. 32-ranked defense has allowed 162 rushing yards per game and six total touchdowns to opponents. Not only are we taking Robinson in the Touchdown Dance, but we’re taking him over 74.7 yards in The Podfather’s Prop of The Week. 

In two career games against the Chiefs, Josh Jacobs has 7.0 yards per carry on 29 attempts. Jacobs leads the league with 83 carries and has logged 30 (No. 3) Evaded Tackles. He hasn’t scored since Week 1 against Carolina when he finished with three touchdowns, and looks to get back in the scoring column against a Chiefs defense that is bottom-5 against running backs in total yards allowed.

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Upside Wide Receivers For Week 5 GPPs

by Alex Johnson, October 10, 2020

Robby Anderson has out-targeted D.J. Moore 35 to 32 through four weeks with the team using him in a more dynamic role than he ever saw with the Jets. He draws a Falcons defense in Week 5 that is dealing with injuries to Keanu Neal (hamstring), Ricardo Allen (elbow) and Darqueze Dennard (hamstring). Week 5 sets up perfectly for a massive outing and, get this, he’s still under $6,000 on Draftkings.

The Falcons are likely to find themselves in another shootout in Week 5 with a total points over/under of 54.5 against Carolina. Olamide Zaccheaus profiles as an effective slot guy who is best comparable to Jamison Crowder. The ceiling may not be as high in regards to explosive plays for what we like in GPPs. Still, the pieces are in place for him to far out-produce his $3,000 cost on Draftkings, which ultimately makes him a great play even in tournaments.

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Metric of the Week: Using Average Depth of Target to Value Wide Receivers

by The “Mad Chatter” Ryan MK, October 9, 2020

In 2020, all but three of the receivers in the top 12 have an Average Depth of Target below 10.0 yards, and all three rank in the top 7 in YAC. One of the top fantasy wideouts is Calvin Ridley, ranking No. 1 in standard scoring and No. 3 in PPR leagues. He currently has a 16.0 (No. 11 among qualified wide receivers) aDOT and ranks No. 1 with 13 Deep Targets. Ridley also ranks No. 7 with 349 receiving yards, but ranks No. 31 with 71 YAC.

On the other side is D.J. Moore; pegged by many fantasy analysts for a big season. The third year wideout comes in with a 12.8 (No. 27) aDOT, having recorded 288 (No. 16) receiving yards and six (No. 14) Deep Targets. Moore ranks No. 40 in standard scoring and No. 31 in PPR formats. While he draws an average of eight targets per game, the 7.2 (No. 22) Target Quality is an issue, especially given his measly 32 (No. 80) YAC. 

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Leveraging the NFL’s Most Volatile Receivers for GPP Upside in Week 5

by Matthew M. Stevens, October 9, 2020

Tee Higgins’ 7.3 (No. 37 among qualified wide receivers) Weekly Volatility score borders on extreme fantasy point scoring oscillation. Still, he averages over seven targets per game and offers tantalizing upside in Week 5. He ranks top-10 in Unrealized Air Yards with 234 (No. 10) and Deep Targets with seven (No. 8), smoke signals that a blowup game awaits. That his price on DraftKings ($4,900) and minimal projected rostership doesn’t reflect his upside makes exposure to Higgins a must this week.

A vulnerable asset, Michael Gallup’s 9.6 (No. 16) Weekly Volatility mark pinpoints his boom-or-bust nature. He’s notched one explosive performance with 25.8 (No. 7) fantasy points and three duds where he scored fewer than 10.0 fantasy points, but finds himself in a good spot against the Giants. His primary matchup against Isaac Yiadom, ranked No. 120 among cornerbacks, is his easiest to date this season, and the Cowboys should scheme to get him the ball.

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Week 4 Usage Rates: Put Some Respect on Isaiah Ford, Stash Donovan Peoples-Jones

by Joshua Kellem, October 9, 2020

Speaking candidly, there isn’t a singular thing that Isaiah Ford does great, per se. However, with bye weeks here, he’s a viable bye-week replacement with a floor. He has a 91.4-percent (No. 2 among qualified wide receivers) Slot Rate, an 8.1 (No. 85) Average Target Distance, and zero (No. 119) Deep Targets for the Dolphins thus far. This indicates he has a semblance of a floor, with the majority of his targets occurring near the line of scrimmage.

Playing on an offense averaging 44.2 (No. 3) Team Pass Plays Per Game, and with a respectable 11.1 (No. 49) Average Target Distance, it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Olamide Zaccheaus to start converting his opportunities into touchdowns. If Julio Jones is ruled out, it’s Calvin Ridley taking on the opposing defense’s No. 1 corner. That alone opens up softer coverage and potential spots in the defense for Zaccheaus, who has logged 41 (No. 66) Yards After Catch thus far, to exploit.

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Free Square DFS Running Backs for Week 5

by Taylor Smith, October 8, 2020

On the surface, Antonio Gibson looks like a risky play this week. While the Rams defense has had strong showings, they concede bunches of fantasy points to RBs. They currently rank No. 28 in Defensive Rushing DVOA after Ezekiel Elliott, Miles Sanders, and Devin Singletary all topped 120 scrimmage yards against them. Given his usage, Gibson is a solid salary-saving RB option on this tightly-priced slate.

The Dolphins rank No. 28 and No. 31 in Defensive Passing and Rushing DVOA respectively, and have allowed Chris Carson and James Robinson to finish as top-5 PPR RBs over the last two weeks. They have also allowed the ninth-most adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders, meaning Jerick McKinnon won’t be getting hit behind the line of scrimmage like he was all last game. Even if Raheem Mostert dresses for this game, McKinnon is set up for elite RB1 production.

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Weighted Opportunities DFS Value Index – Week 5

by Sean McClure, October 8, 2020

Damien Harris should be the free chalk play of the week. Monitor his ownership and pivot if it gets too high, but it is rare to see a back priced at only $4,500 when he’s projected for about half his team’s opportunities. He looked awesome on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs and now gets a plus Game Script matchup against the Broncos. Belichick’s RB shenanigans rightfully cause concern, but the upside with Harris is too tantalizing.

Myles Gaskin fell back to earth a bit in Week 4 after looking like a stud in Week 3’s game against Jacksonville. Part of his performance can be attributed to the excellent middle linebacker coverage in Seattle that often limits the receiving upside of RBs and TEs that face them. Still, Gaskin saw 10 of the 16 RB carries and four of eight targets at the position. With excellent overall usage at only $5,500, Gaskin is a great contrarian play in cash or GPP in another tough matchup against the 49ers.

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Three DFS Quarterback-Wide Receiver Stacks for Week 5

by Taylor Williams, October 8, 2020

Deshaun Watson has been super efficient aggressively throwing the ball down the field this year. He has recorded 664 (No. 8 among qualified quarterbacks) Completed Air Yards, 8.4 (No. 7) Yards per Attempt, and 8.5 (No. 10) Air Yards per Attempt with a 108.8 (No. 8) True Passer Rating. Good things happen when Watson throws to Will Fuller. In a game projected to shoot out with a 54-point total, expect multiple splash plays from these two.

Joe Burrow’s passing volume makes him appealing week in and week out for daily fantasy. While some will be scared off going against Baltimore, the pass volume and expected Game Script give Burrow a high floor. We’re targeting Tee Higgins this week mainly due to price. He’s $4900 on DraftKings despite taking over WR2 responsibilities. He’s commanded over 100 Air Yards in each of the last two weeks. That downfield target role makes him more valuable in tournament settings as we look to capitalize on big plays.

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Buy High and Sell Low Players After Week 4: Justin Jefferson Opening Act

by Kyle Dvorchak, October 8, 2020

Justin Jefferson played on less than 80-percent of Minnesota’s snaps through two weeks, but has topped that number in both of the following weeks. The only argument against him is his offense. The Vikings are known as a run-first team, but that choice might not be on the table for them going forward. They allow their opponents to average 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers. If they’re going to keep getting into shootouts, Jefferson has WR2 upside every week.

Kenyan Drake is an inferior running back to Chase Edmonds and can only operate as the top back in Arizona for so long before that sends him to the bench. Edmonds has him bested in Breakaway Run Rate, Production Premium, Expected Points Added, and Yards per Route Run among other metrics. He’s the better pass-catcher, which makes Drake a grinder like Damien Harris or Adrian Peterson.

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