Results for: ""

Lamar Jackson was the last remaining player in my first tier of quarterbacks. He has proven his generational rushing talent year after year, putting up an insane 1,005 (No. 1 among qualified quarterbacks) rushing yards and seven (No. 4) rushing touchdowns on 159 (No. 1) carries in 2020. His floor as a rusher alone should easily make him a QB1.

Michael Pittman’s upside at WR51 is undeniable. His early-second round draft capital is significant, and he gets a theoretical upgrade at quarterback from Jacoby Brissett to Carson Wentz. In the 12th round, I’ll take the chance that a player with a 111.2 (93rd-percentile) Speed Score and 10.25 (89th-percentile) Catch Radius breaks out in Year 2.

For the last 20 years, when considering the “money” performers at the quarterback position, the first name to mind has been Tom Brady. It should therefore surprise no one that Brady led all quarterbacks with 46 Money Throws in 2020. They accounted for 8-percent of his pass attempts for the season (610). Brady completed almost three times as many Money Throws as he threw Interceptable Passes (19).

At the other end of the scale, having a quarterback who can’t deliver the money plays can seriously impact a team’s hopes of success in a given year. Of the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts, Nick Mullens of the 49ers had the lowest number of Money Throws. He managed just four (No. 40 among qualified quarterbacks) from his 326 (No. 29) attempts (one-percent).

Michael Thomas battled through an injury-plagued season and two quarterbacks playing at subpar levels, but still managed to hit the 15 fantasy point mark in three of his seven games, posting a 42.5-percent (No. 1 among qualified wide receivers) Air Yards Share. Enter Jameis Winston, who can provide Thomas with higher quality, fantasy relevant targets and elevate his stomach churning -35.9-percent (No. 107) Target Premium.

Dak Prescott’s pre-injury production last year was mind blowing: 27 (No. 30) Deep Ball Attempts, a 55.6-percent (No. 3) Deep Ball Completion Percentage, 1.2 (No. 8) Red Zone Carries per Game, 45.1 (No. 11) Best Ball Points Added, and the list goes on. While he might not have the rushing upside you’d like, Prescott has everything he needs to be a best ball star quarterback in 2021: talent, a high powered offense, a solid supporting cast, and negative Game Scripts.

Myles Gaskin’s current ADP on Underdog is in the middle of the fifth round at 56.4, putting him at RB24. Gaskin is the perfect RB2 for your Hero RB builds. He was one of the biggest winners of the NFL Draft, with Miami electing not to take an RB until the seventh round. If you want to be one of the winners of your draft, take him as your RB2 in the fifth. You’re welcome.

Despite playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt still saw 198 (No. 11 among qualified running backs) carries on a Browns team that averaged 30.9 (No. 4) Team Run Plays Per Game. Even with Chubb healthy, Hunt has consistently put up RB2 numbers. If you’re the type of fantasy player drafting for injury upside, then he is easily the best RB for you.

The number of RB1s have contracted over time, culminating in a brutally small RB1 tier in 2020 with only three RB1s, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Derrick Henry. The RB1 tier is getting narrower and further away from the rest of the pack. The league-winning RBs are hitting harder now than in years past, but they are more scarce than ever before.

The difference between WR3s and WR2s is relatively smaller than the difference between RB2s and RB3s, furthering the hypothesis that the top-36 wide receivers are a tighter and deeper group than their counterparts in the RB position. Both running backs and wide receivers have small groups of elite top-end talent that only a portion of a fantasy football league will be able to snag. There are fewer RB1s and WR1s than there are spots in a 12 team fantasy league.

Austin Ekeler is discount Christian McCaffrey and is available 12 picks later. He’s in a perfect situation with the hyper-accurate Justin Herbert targeting him early and often every single game. We have already seen him have a 109-target season (2019), and 100-plus looks to be in the cards again this season. Ekeler has top five RB potential, and is almost always available around the 1/2 turn or later.

At 23 years old entering his third season, T.J. Hockenson is in a perfect storm of fantasy production. He has the talent and first-round pedigree, performed well last season, and is the most talented receiver on the team. It sounds an awful lot like 2020 Waller. If he gets 120 targets, he should outperform his current ADP, but there is potential for an elite 140-plus target season. Go and draft him.

How Kyle Pitts transfixed NFL scouts. Jaylen Waddle and Will Fuller are huge boons for Tua Tagovailoa.

Sam Darnold is set up to fail in Carolina. Julio Jones going to a Derrick Henry offense is bad.

In a SuperFlex league, it’s likely impossible to acquire one of the top options or young guns. Kirk Cousins is a hidden value QB2, currently being drafted at QB24 per startup ADP. The volatility may scare some, but not every quarterback can put up great numbers in half their games with top five fantasy upside. While he does have a bit of unpredictability to his weekly performances, he has high-ceiling upside, a stable situation, and an elite arsenal of weapons around him.

No wide receiver will have a better rookie season than Jerry Jeudy and be this inexpensive again. He’s currently the WR25 per startup ADP. If he maintains his efficiency, fixes a few drops, and his quarterback performs better in getting him the ball, he can easily be a 1,100-plus yard receiver with a handful of touchdowns to go with it. This is the most inexpensive he will ever be. Buy while you can.

Jaylen Waddle and Hunter Long bolsters Tua Tagovailoa. Comparing Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow.

What are legitimate concerns about Miles Sanders? What are legitimate concerns about D.J. Moore?

Jonathan Taylor is poised to be a top fantasy RB in his second year for the Colts after taking off in the second half of his rookie season. He became the team’s offensive focal point with 15-plus fantasy points in each game from Weeks 11-17. He fits the Colts’ gashing offensive identity, is only 22 years old, and ranks favorably in almost every workout metric, college production statistic, or intangible data point.
 
With Jared Goff last season, Cooper Kupp saw 125 (No. 16 among qualified wide receivers) targets and played 443 (No. 11) slot snaps. This season, he goes from Goff’s 7.3 (No. 22) Accuracy Rating and 58.5 (No. 23) Total QBR to Matthew Stafford’s 7.5 (No. 11) Accuracy Rating and 68.8 (No. 15) Total QBR. With an upgrade at QB, Kupp will see higher quality targets and will make noise as a larger slot receiver.