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The Ravens-Bears matchup is one where you’re swinging for the fences. It could smash with big plays as the Ravens allow a 12-percent (No. 30) explosive play rate in the air and 14-percent (No. 30) on the ground. The Bears aren’t far behind, with 10-percent (No. 22) in the air and also 14-percent (No. 29) on the ground. Explosions are everywhere behind the league’s most dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson and an emerging star in Fields. However, it could also finish as a game you didn’t want to touch. 

Initially, the Packers-Vikings game was going into my Week 11 DFS Matchups to Target. However, after breaking down the numbers and seeing the roster percentages, I’m fading a heavy stack and hoping for what we saw with the Packers-Chiefs in Week 10. The Vikings poor defensive rank against the quarterback is inflated by three rushing quarterbacks: Sam Darnold, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson. They have only allowed two quarterbacks to hit the 300-yard bonus thus far. In addition, Aaron Rodgers has only hit it once in 2021 and only has one game with three passing touchdowns.

George Kittle is my favourite play on the entire slate. Since returning to the lineup, he leads the 49ers with a 26-percent target share. He presents leverage off Jeff Wilson, as well as Deebo Samuel. With Darren Waller and Travis Kelce playing in the slate’s highest total games, Kittle has an array of factors driving his ownership downward. It is fully within the range of outcomes for Kittle to be the slate’s highest-scoring tight end with a huge performance that leverages off multiple popular plays.

Priced up despite a post-bye efficiency dip, Ezekiel Elliott is my favourite play in the KC-DAL contest. At $7,700, Elliott is unlikely to be among the slate’s top-owned running backs. His price is prohibitive to pairings with Chiefs stacks, which are more comfortably paired with the $4,200 Michael Gallup. Elliott, despite a muted role in the pass-game this year, sees his highest snap rates in trailing script, where he is relied on as a blocker and outlet. For this reason, I think he pairs well as a differentiating factor in Chiefs stacks.

When building GPP tournament lineups, a barbell approach to roster share is key for achieving tournament winning upside through differentiation. We explore a few unique stack possibilities to get that leverage off the popular Cowboys and Chiefs stacks this week. With a few exciting games in the late window, late swap possibilities become a critical consideration for a few underlooked QB plays.

Joe Burrow is a good example of the reason we put so much stock into team and game totals. This year, efficiency is the name of the game. Now in a game with a large total, we’re expecting that volume to jump up a bit, while ideally maintaining that same efficiency resulting in a huge day for fantasy. Ja’Marr Chase’s 17 Deep Targets rank No. 5 while his 41.9-percent Air Yard Share ranks No. 4. He’s consistently making big plays down the field and can break a slate any week.

Unfortunately, D.J. Moore has failed to record a double digit finish in fantasy points since this time and his red hot start to the season where he averaged over 22 fantasy points per game is looking like a mirage. But wait, that mirage in the desert may actually be the waterhole that you have been searching for. Moore is still averaging over 70 Air Yards the past four weeks and has the chance to play with potentially his most productive quarterback this season in Cam Newton.

Emmanuel Sanders has underwhelmed since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye averaging only 5.7 Fantasy Points Per Game in the three games after the bye. However, he is averaging almost 100 Air Yards per game since the bye and is tops in the league with a 18.3 Average Target Distance. Look for Sanders to haul in a long touchdown at some point. When he does you will want him in your tournament lineup.

The Patriots are on a roll. Mac Jones has been the best 2021 rookie quarterback and continues to improve weekly. The offense is supported by bell-cow back Damien Harris, while Jakobi Meyers and Kendrick Bourne fight for weekly relevancy.

The Falcons are a mess. They’re struggling on both sides and missing talent. Kyle Pitts is reliable and Wayne Gallman is a solid temporary option. Matt Ryan, however, struggles to consistently produce at a high level.

Joe Burrow is a quarterback savant. What’s wrong with Trevor Lawrence?

Mason Rudolph should never start another NFL game.

The High Value Touch DFS Index is here to help you find the best plays for the dollar in DFS. This is done by looking at leaders in Carries Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and Targets Inside The 10-Yard Line Per Game and comparing their prices on DraftKings and FanDuel to create a rating. We look at these touches close to the end zone because touchdowns lead to fantasy points, and fantasy points lead to cashing our lineups in DFS!

Unfortunately for most of these running backs, they do not have enough of a floor to rely on cash but are tournament viable depending on the size of the contest and how many lineups one plays. A.J. Dillon is a cash game play this week and one of the better values on the slate!

This new season-long mini-series is brought to you by the RotoUnderworld Game Analyst Team. The Game Analyst Team consists of over 75 individuals that chart and re-watch every snap from every game in the NFL between game end, and Monday afternoon.

In the coming weeks, it will be interesting to see how the Dolphins will respond to a fairly easy schedule. In the next 4 game stretch, the Dolphins play the Jets twice, the Giants, and the Panthers. All 4 are very winnable games. Could the Dolphins be 7-7 heading into Monday Night Football against the Saints on Dec 27th? How will Flores handle the QB situation since he doesn’t seem to have supreme confidence in Tua? Will pass-catchers like Wilson and Ford consistently step up or will it continue to be the Jaylen Waddle show? As stated previously, it will be an interesting next few weeks for the Miami Dolphins.

In Cody Carpentier’s first 2022 NFL Mock Draft (1.0), he has Malik Willis going to Washington and Treylon Burks going to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Russell Wilson is a dual-threat gunslinger who’s addicted to elite fantasy performances. He face-planted on his return from injury, which creates the perfect bye window going into a league-winning schedule. Odell Beckham is going to be heavily involved in the Rams offense. He is a home-run swing, but his potential is worth the risk.

A.J. Dillon is a size-speed specimen, stepping into a bell-cow role. Though Aaron Jones will likely return this season, Dillon is going to smash in the meantime and stay relevant when Jone returns. Whether you’re a contender or looking for a playoff push, Dillon can give your team the edge it needs.