If you ask people in the fantasy football industry when draft season is they might give you a date around late-July when players start to report to training camps. That’s when fantasy football is at its absolute peak. However, if you ask the best ball sickos like me, we have been drafting since late-January when Underdog Fantasy dropped their “Little Board” and “Big Board” contests. I am currently about 10 drafts away from maxing out the 150 entry Big Board contest. Since the contest opened, there’s been a lot of movement in player ADPs. Free agency, the scouting combine, and college pro days have all had major impacts as it relates to the current ADP landscape.
Now that the dust has cleared, and we are making the final push toward the NFL Draft, I’m here to break down the BEST values that currently exist in the Underdog best ball landscape!
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Travis Etienne: RB10, Overall ADP 37.5
The fact that I can draft Travis Etienne at the third or fourth round turn is the most insane thing to me. Etienne finished as the RB3 in .5 ppr scoring last season. However, as great as that finish was, that doesn’t tell the entire story. It hasn’t been talked about much, but it was truly a “tale of two halves” for Etienne in the 2024 season.
In Weeks 1-8, Etienne was the RB2, ranking No. 3 in total TDs (8), No. 5 in targets (35), No. 7 in receptions (27), and No. 1 in touches. He also had 18+ carries in six of those eight games. This was a league best. He was on FIRE to start the season. Additionally, the Jaguars were 6-2 going into the bye-week. Then disaster struck.
Disaster
Something happened after that bye-week in terms of Etienne’s usage. In Weeks 9-17 Etienne was the RB23, scored just 4 TDs, surpassed 18+ carries in just one of eight games. Additionally, he saw his total touches decrease from 178 over the first eight weeks to 126 over the last eight weeks. More importantly, the Jaguars went 3-6 to end the season.
In my mind, he had to be playing through an injury. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the Jaguars were winning when Etienne was getting the ball and then started losing when he wasn’t. Given the fact they probably want to win games in 2024, and they saw how good they were when Etienne was getting fed, I’m expecting nothing but big things from Etienne in 2024.
And yes, I’m aware of the reports of Tank Bigsby being more involved more next season. If those reports hold true, and it means that Etienne has a better chance at staying healthy throughout the entirety of the season, than I’m 100% on board with that. Because make no mistake, Travis Etienne is the best weapon this team has. That will be reflected by his top 5 RB finish in 2024.
Raheem Mostert: RB27, Overall ADP 92.7
I swear I’m not trying to look at last season’s success and assume it’s going to be the same in 2024. However, Raheem Mostert‘s current ADP is WILD! Mostert was the RB2 in 2023, finishing the season with 21 total TDs (No. 1 among RBs) and you can get him in Round 7.
I recognize the fact that Mostert benefited from Devon Achane missing some time. He also benefited by the fact Achane was a rookie. However, I think we see this backfield situation look closer to 2023 as opposed to what people are projecting for 2024. Achane is currently being drafted in the middle of Round 2 as the RB8, and we have literally ZERO evidence to suggest that he’s all of a sudden going to become the workhorse that people are drafting him to be in 2024.
Workload
Achane had 15+ carries in just two of his eight full games. Additionally, he missed or left early in eight other games last season. Achane is a sports car who’s going to give you some efficient usage and is a threat to house one every time he touches the ball. While that’s exciting, the fact he couldn’t stay healthy last year at 5-9, 187-pounds doesn’t scream workhorse.
Raheem Mostert on the other hand is indeed a daily driver. He is someone you can rely on in any situation and someone you can be a lot less fearful about in terms of how many miles you are putting on him. Granted, the Mostert daily driver does have a good number of miles on him already. He’s currently 31 years old. However, he had a late start to his career. I’m confident he’s got a lot of good drives left in him. This is evident by the Dolphins giving him a two-year extension last week.
At the end of the day, Mostert is more reliable, he projects better to be their goal-line back, and he’s going to get more carries in this high-octane offense than Achane will. I’m trying to leave every draft with Raheem Mostert on my team.
Terry McLaurin: WR35, Overall ADP 57.8
We have been waiting for the Terry McLaurin mega-breakout for multiple years now. The play calling and the quarterback play have always held him down. Well, I think that’s all going to change this year.
Washington is armed with the No. 2 pick in the NFL Draft and just hired Kliff Kingsbury as their OC and play caller. While the QB for the Washington Commanders remains to be seen, the Kliff Kingsbury play calling style could not be better for fantasy football and for Terry McLaurin
Here are the finishes/targets of the No. 1 wide receivers on Kingsbury offenses since he’s been in the NFL.
2019: DeAndre Hopkins WR5, 150 targets
2020: DeAndre Hopkins WR5, 160 targets
2021- Injury plagued season for Hopkins, WR17 in FPPG.
2022- Week 1-7, Hollywood Brown WR8, 10.6 targets a game. Week 8-17, Hopkins WR19, 10.6 targets per game.
Hopkins Domination
Yes, this list is dominated by DeAndre Hopkins. He was in his prime when he played for the Cardinals. But it’s refreshing to see a guy like Hollywood Brown absolutely dominate when Hopkins was suspended those first six weeks of the 2022 season.
Terry McLaurin is without a doubt the best receiver and the best weapon the Commanders have on offense. Kingsbury has always done a great job at getting the ball to those players.
I truly believe we see the true breakout season from McLaurin in 2024.
For more Best Ball articles, check out this article written by Bradley Stalder – 7 Strategies to WIN MORE on Underdog Fantasy (playerprofiler.com)
