Unlocking the potential of weekly player volatility in fantasy football gives gamers a competitive edge. A key metric on PlayerProfiler.com, Weekly Volatility measures a player’s week-to-week fantasy point scoring oscillation. This metric can be found under a player’s game log on the right side of his profile. Using matchup and usage data combined with advanced stats, metrics and analytics to pinpoint the best matchups yields the best ROI from volatile players. With season-long leagues winding down, the focus of this article will shift to using this metric to help identify high-upside, low-owned wide receivers to deploy in GPPs.
Weekly Volatility GPP primer
Volatility metrics play an important role in distinguishing between wide receiver archetypes and provide valuable information regarding each player’s potential. For the purpose of this article, the focus will be on the boom-or-bust, week winner archetypes playable on the DraftKings featured slate. These high-ceiling, low-floor players scare off the masses due to their fantasy scoring fluctuation, making them perfect GPP plays. Savvy gamers gain an edge by finding the player with the right mix of high volatility and low ownership percentage.
Tyler Lockett Healing Waters
Despite Pete Carroll’s assurance that Tyler Lockett ($6,900) is “back to full strength,” call the masses skeptical. Lockett’s projected ownership figures to be minuscule upon his return this week. After burning through the first half of the season, Lockett failed to reach 10 DraftKings points in each of his past four games. It’s obvious his ailments have contributed to his struggles. A leg contusion suffered in Week 10 and a recent illness that swept through the Seattle locker room help to explain his 8-107-0 line during that span. His Snap Share also dropped from an average of 96.1-percent to 86.2-percent. The recent downturn in Lockett’s production led to bust weeks and contributed to his Weekly Volatility climbing to 11.0, which ranks No. 8 among qualified wide receivers. Any value greater than 10.0 is considered extremely volatile.
Check out Tyler Lockett on PlayerProfiler’s Updated Weekly Rankings and Projections:
It’s that volatility that gamers can harness in the form of a low-owned player with a 40-point fantasy ceiling who’s tied to a quarterback in the MVP discussion. A healthy Lockett returning to form equals a boon for the Seahawks and gamers alike. Russell Wilson‘s QBR when targeting Lockett (126.3) ranks No. 5, and the duo has combined for six touchdowns this season. Given the 8.2 (No. 2) Target Quality that Lockett sees, he’s always one play away from breaking a slate. It also doesn’t hurt that he boasts a lid-lifting 4.40 (96th-percentile) 40-yard dash time.
PlayerProfiler’s strength of schedule metric measures fantasy points allowed above/below the mean by the opponent’s defense. Scores above +2.00 signal an easy matchup and those below -2.00 a difficult one. Carolina’s mark of +1.77 ranks No. 13. In terms of the defense, the overall matchup isn’t intimidating, but Lockett’s individual battle figures to be tougher. Cornerback Ross Cockrell and his +27.6 (No. 17) Coverage Rating await Lockett this week. Cockrell’s nine pass break-ups rank No. 11 and he’s allowed three touchdownss to go along with his three INTs in defending 237 (No. 13) routes. He’s a solid corner, but not unbeatable, especially for a player of Lockett’s caliber.
Darius Slayton Re-smash Factor
Daniel Jones can’t throw an accurate deep ball to save his life and is nursing an ankle injury. He’s expected to miss Week 15’s home tilt against the Dolphins, and a resilient Eli Manning showed he can still sling it on Monday Night Football. Manning hit Darius Slayton ($4,700) on scoring bombs of 35 and 55 yards in a game where Slatyon posted a 5-154-2 line on a team-high eight targets. Jones, on the other hand, sports a 25.6 Deep Ball Completion Percentage that ranks No. 31. Pray for Manning.
Slayton quietly took over the No. 1 wide receiver role for the Giants this season with Sterling Shepard missing seven games so far. He leads the team in with 70 targets, 659 receiving yards, 15.7 YPR and seven touchdown. Across the past four games, he’s seen at least seven targets with a high of 14 in Week 10. Keep an eye on projections and fade him if he eclipses 15-percent ownership, but he has immense upside in a dream matchup against a team allowing an explosive pass play rate of 12-percent, tied for third-most in the NFL. The Dolphins also allow an average of 39.73 DK points per game to opposing WRs, the sixth-most in the NFL.
Olamide Zaccheaus flashes breakout potential
In a lost season for Atlanta, Olamide Zaccheaus ($3,200) burst onto the boom-bust scene with flashes of breakout potential in Week 14. In his third game of the season, the undrafted rookie from Virginia caught one of his two targets and took his lone catch 93 yards to the house. It marked the first fantasy points of his career after he failed to record a catch in Weeks 10 and 13. With Calvin Ridley done for the season and the Falcons receiving corps unproven behind an always-banged up Julio Jones, Zaccheaus enters the conversation.
The former Cavalier boasts an impressive 36.5-percent (73rd-percentile) College Dominator Rating and 19.1 (87th-percentile) Breakout Age. He holds the record for most career receptions (213) at Virginia, and his lightning-in-a-bottle upside makes him an intriguing dart throw this week. At 5-8, 188-pounds, Zaccheaus lacks prototypical X-receiver size. For a smaller guy, he also doesn’t possess field-stretching speed. His 4.54 40-yard dash time ranks in the 52nd-percentile.
His matchup against a 49ers defense ranked No. 2 in DVOA means he has winning lottery ticket potential because he’ll go unowned, and he offers roster construction flexibility at such a low price. Zaccheaus is best served in large-field GPPs where gamers play dozens of lineups given his uncertain role, but having even a bit of exposure to him can help create an edge.