This is NFL Best Bets Week 8! Welcome back to the 2023-24 NFL season and this article series, where we provide our best game line bets for the Sunday-Monday NFL slate each week on sportsbooks.
Each week’s article features picks on either the moneyline, spread, game total, or team total. For each bet, we will provide a wager size recommendation (note: 1 unit = 1% of your gambling bankroll). Keep the exposure disciplined and stick to the recommendations. It is always worth line-shopping at the time you place your bet so that you can get the best value available online.
In Week 7, we cashed our only play of the article with ease. The Bears not only covered their 3-point spread, but won outright in a rout behind an impressive first NFL start from Tyson Bagent. The Raiders continued to struggle defensively. To nobody’s surprise, they were a dysfunctional offense with Brian Hoyer at quarterback.
We are now 6-7 on the season and are looking to get back in the positive on the season. Let’s dive into the Week 8 betting board. For this week, once again, we have only one confident bet. This week’s bet is my only confident pick on the moneyline in Week 8.
1 unit: Packers ML (+108, FanDuel)
Jordan Love has not been good over the last few weeks. Even with his top wideout Christian Watson back, he is struggling to throw the ball accurately downfield. It has caused the Green Bay Packers to lose three straight games. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Vikings are coming off back-to-back wins including a stunning primetime defeat of the San Francisco 49ers. Now is the time to sell high on the mediocre Minnesota roster and buy in on Green Bay at home.
Part of the reason for Green Bay’s skid is star cornerback Jaire Alexander dealing with injuries that have caused him to miss three of his last four games. Reports suggest that Alexander could be in line to return in Week 8 after he was spotted in practice. Head coach Matt LeFleur was optimistic about his availability in this matchup. The Packers rank around middle-of-the-pack as a passing defense by EXP. Their No. 1 cornerback returning should be a problem for a Vikings offense that will be without star wide receiver Justin Jefferson.
On offense, the Packers’ concern will be the inconsistent throwing of Love. However, the Packers will get a bounce back spot at home against the Vikings. On the season, Minnesota ranks just middle-of-the-pack in run stop win rate, pass rush win rate, and pressure rate. They will now have to go against an offensive line that ranks No. 2 in pass block win rate despite missing David Bakhtiari for nearly the full season. This bodes well for Love, whose metrics unsurprisingly skyrocket when kept clean in the pocket. Watson is also likely available on Sunday after practicing on Wednesday.
Under LeFleur, the Packers are 45-32-0 against the spread (No. 3-best cover rate in the NFL), 14-7-0 against the spread following a loss (No. 2-best cover rate), 24-14-0 against the spread at home (No. 2 best cover rate), and 12-9-0 against the spread with the rest advantage (No. 8-best cover rate). Expect those numbers to bulk up even further after they pick up an outright win as 1.5-point underdogs in Week 8.