PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Dan Williamson opines on Navigating the Rashee Rice Suspension for fantasy football.
There is chaos in the fantasy football streets now that the arbitration hearing for Rashee Rice‘s suspension is scheduled for September 30th. Does that make him more draftable? Less draftable? Touts on social media are racing to speculate on the best path to get through the unexpected twists and turns of this saga. Is this an opportunity to profit from fear, doubt, and uncertainty?
Or is this a situation to steer clear of?
As drafters, we prefer life in the fast lane, where legal actions are speedily concluded. Unfortunately, the legal system and the NFL rarely operate in this manner. Getting closure on Jordan Addison‘s legal troubles before fantasy draft season fully ramped up was great for all of us.
But Rice’s punishment is gridlocked despite reaching a legal resolution. And it’s important to ask why that might be? There are multiple answers to this question.
The Background
One reason why the NFL seems to be grinding its gears on this situation is that its Personal Conduct Policy, which this situation appears to fall under, is designed for domestic violence, not vehicular crimes. There’s no way around the unsavory optics of what Rice did. It’s impossible to put a positive spin on street racing expensive cars, putting ordinary citizens at extreme risk, and fleeing the scene of a crime. Undoubtedly, the NFL wants to send a clear message on a situation that could have ended just as horribly as the Henry Ruggs incident.
Rashee Rice’s Advanced Metrics Profile
On the other hand, Rashee Rice and the NFLPA will be quick to point out that he voluntarily turned himself in and has since done everything possible to make the victims of his crime whole. He pled guilty and followed the court’s instructions in every way. They will point out that fleeing the scene was a panic reaction, which is unfortunately quite common when someone knows they just caused a major accident or bodily harm.
Therein probably lies the reason for the delay. The NFL wanted to hand down a suspension of 10 games or possibly more. Meanwhile, Rice’s legal team was angling for a much shorter suspension, probably 3 games or less. As neither side was willing to budge, arbitration seems the most sensible option. There will be a September 30th hearing, after which the arbitrator will decide on an appropriate punishment.
What’s noteworthy here is who the NFL picked as the arbitrator. They chose Sue Robinson, the same judge who arbitrated the Deshaun Watson punishment, and the date was chosen because that’s the earliest they could fit into her schedule. Through this solution, the NFL hopes to look tough but fair.
How To Value Rashee Rice In Drafts
The situation is confounding for fantasy managers because there’s nothing to stop Rice and the NFL from working out a deal at any time before the hearing. This creates massive uncertainty about when the punishment might happen and how long he will be suspended. If you choose to select Rice in a fantasy draft, you are embracing all of this risk, whether you like it or not. So it’s better to go into your drafts with eyes wide open to the best and worst-case scenarios.
One possible solution is crossing Rice off your draft list and letting someone else worry about all this. If you demand that players on your team adhere to certain moral standards, this should be your stance.
I don’t view players through this sort of lens. I assume that NFL players are as fallible as any of us. Furthermore, with greater wealth and power come greater temptations. I never think of rostering personalities or character traits because I’d quickly run out of players to roster.
Instead, I am just drafting the right to use their NFL stats and nothing else. Rostering players is not the same as vouching for their character or lifestyle.
How Long, And Starting When?
If you consider rostering Rice, you’ll want to make your best guess as to the length of the suspension handed down. Given that the NFL was looking for at least 10 weeks, I find it hard to believe that Rice will get less than six weeks. I think it’s unlikely it’s less than 4 games or more than 10 games. I am also figuring there’s about a 60 percent chance that the suspension is 6-8 weeks, with a 20 percent chance it could be less, and a 20 percent chance it could be more. This is regardless of whether the case goes to arbitration or not.
Next, you’ll want to factor in when you think the suspension will begin. The first four weeks of the NFL season contain no bye weeks, and the rest of your roster should be at full strength. As we know, the chaos of an NFL season is relentless. Injuries can devastate any fantasy team at any time, forcing a quick pivot to relying on bench players. Then bye weeks will push us to rely on our bench even more.
Thus, the easiest suspensions to weather happen immediately. Hopefully, Rice and the NFL can agree and start the clock on the suspension at the beginning of the season.
Putting It All Together
The worst-case scenario is that Sue Robinson hears arguments on September 30th and then hands down a suspension shortly thereafter. If both parties agree to her decision, the suspension could start as soon as Week 5. But if either side appeals, more time will tick by.
In the Deshaun Watson case, she ruled on a six-week suspension on August 1st. Unfortunately, the NFL appealed on August 3rd, and the case was finally settled on August 18th. A timeline like this could start the clock on a suspension at Week 7 or later.
Putting it all together, it’s possible that any suspension could be in effect during the last half of the fantasy regular season. Even worse, we cannot eliminate the possibility that the suspension could carry into the fantasy playoffs. If that doomsday scenario occurs, Rashee Rice is a wasted pick at any time during your draft, no matter how late.
What I’m Doing
I certainly hope we get more clarity on Rice’s suspension before the season begins. It would be ideal if he settles on a punishment with the NFL so it can begin immediately. Until that occurs, drafting Rice carries a lot of risk.
Just to put it in perspective, we think Brandon Aiyuk might miss 6 games at the start of the season, and we’re currently drafting him at the end of the 11th round in 12-team leagues. In a world with no Rashee Rice suspension or Brandon Aiyuk injury, we’d take Rice over Aiyuk, of course.
I will not be drafting Rashee Rice until late in the 8th round, at the earliest. Given the entire range of possible outcomes, even that is risky. But the upside Rice has shown could make that pick pay off. This also brings his price down to a point in drafts where a busted pick is less fatal to your team’s chances of winning your league.
Given his current ADP, I’m extremely unlikely to get the opportunity to take Rice, and I’m OK with that. If you decide to take him earlier than that, I wish you well.
For more articles from PlayerProfiler, check out the fantasy home page – NFL Fantasy | PlayerProfiler – Fantasy Football News & Media
