Lineup makers for Daily Fantasy – Week 11 Edition

by Taylor Smith ·
josh-adams-fantasy-football-dfs

The optimal cash lineup continues to be jamming in the bell-cow running backs in the best game environments and finding value elsewhere.  This week we need to find a way to get at least two of the “blue-chip” RBs into our lineups without breaking the bank in DFS on FanDuel.  At first glance, value is very difficult to come by this week, but let’s see what the advanced stats, metrics, and analytics suggest.

Dion Lewis, RB: $5900

Dion Lewis is a prime example of process over results.  In Week 10, Lewis out-touched his backfield-mate Derrick Henry 22-11.  Henry got the better box score with two touchdowns, but that is unlikely to continue.  Even with last weeks results, Lewis has two more red zone touches on the season.  He is their clear-cut bell-cow and his modest Week 10 outing simply holds his price another week.

Josh Adams, RB: $4500

Eagles RB Josh Adams has been hyper-efficient on his touches, averaging 2.33 (6th-most) yards created per attempt.  Adams posted this solid number because of his 12 evaded tackles on 20 carries.  His 57.1 percent Juke Rate would be highest among RBs if he had enough touches to qualify.

The good news is that Eagles HC Doug Pederson came out and said that Adams will get more work going forward, largely due to the ineffectiveness of Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood.  The Saints have been a dominant run defense, but Adams is minimum-price and a cheap way to get exposure to a game with the highest implied total this week (54.5 over/under).

John Brown, WR: $5400

Joe Flacco‘s hip injury is paving the way for Lamar Jackson to save the Ravens franchise.  Flacco has not practiced and Jackson is taking the first-team reps at practice.  On just 12 attempts this season, Jackson has an average pass attempt distance of 12.5 yards currently leads all starting NFL quarterbacks. Jackson was also a willing deep ball passer in college, evidenced by an 11.4 average pass attempt distance, which ranked No. 8 among college quarterbacks in 2017.

John Brown Advanced Stats & Metrics Profile

This gunslinger-mentality aligns perfectly John Brown, one of the NFL’s signature field stretching wide receivers. Brown’s 18.1 average target depth ranks No. 3 among qualified wide receivers, but with the erratic Flacco at the helm through 10 weeks, Brown’s 64.2% catchable target rate ranks No. 103.  Brown will be facing Bengals CB Dre Kirkpatrick, who has given up five touchdowns on the season.  He has a solid coverage grade based on his 8 pass breakups.  Kirkpatrick is a risk taker who gives up chunk plays when things don’t work out, evidenced by his 15.7 yards allowed per reception on the year.  Brown is an excellent tournament stack with any starting Ravens QB.

Devin Funchess, WR: $5700

The fantasy community continues to disrespect Devin Funchess as a #1 WR.  His role is to soak up #1 CBs, win in contested situations, and dominate the red zone.  Funchess is top-15 among receivers in contested catch conversion rate (53.3%) and red zone targets (9).

Funchess will also face the Lions secondary in Week 11.  A secondary that was just annihilated by the entire Bears receiving corp without CB Darius Slay.  Slay has yet to log a full practice.  Should he remain sidelined for another week, Funchess and the Panthers pass catchers are easy DFS targets at their prices.

Jordan Reed, TE: $5400

The best indicator of future production is volume.  While Jordan Reed isn’t scorching the competition in fantasy points, he is seeing a top-4 target share at his position.  Based on his targets, yards, and role in the offense, Reed should have .9 more touchdowns.  Keep buying the volume and the touchdowns will come.  Reed is an elite option at TE.

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE: $5200

The most intriguing part of Ricky Seals-Jones‘ advanced metrics is his average target distance of 9.9 yards.  He is getting high-value targets and the team is using him in beneficial ways for fantasy production.  Seals-Jones is also fresh off of a 9 target game last week and is now top-10 among tight ends in target share.  He is incredibly cheap and is playing the worst defense in the NFL.