Is Garrett Wilson the WR3 in Dynasty Fantasy Football?

by Jeffrey Remlinger · Analytics & Advanced Metrics
I know what you’re thinking. How can Garrett Wilson, the No. 5-ranked WR and No. 10-highest-valued player in the PlayerProfiler single QB Dynasty Rankings still be underrated? Because he has the potential to equal or better the Kings at the top of the WR hill.

2022: A Year Of Outliers For Garrett Wilson

In 2022 Garrett Wilson finished the season ranked No. 31 in PPR Points Per Game but left a lot out on the field. Wilson was No. 6 in the league for targets and had a drop rate of only 3.4-percent. These are impressive numbers, especially for a rookie. However, Wilson also had one of the lowest catch rates at only 56.5-percent. This is the No. 3 lowest rate in a season since 2000 compared to WRs with over 80 catches.
Using linear regression, we can predict how many points Wilson should score based on the number of targets he received and compare him to all WRs with at least 50 targets. With 147 targets, we would expect Wilson to have around 265 PPR Points. This would be good for the No. 3 best rookie season of all time.
Only Diontae Johnson had equal to or more than the number of targets Wilson received and scored fewer fantasy points due to not finding the endzone once in 2022. With an average amount of TDs, and a solid ADOT for Wilson, nothing he is doing points to the reasoning for this outlier. This is about who’s throwing him the ball.

A Merry-Go-Round Of QBs

In 2022, every WR in the top 24 had a QB finish in the top 25, except for Wilson, Michael Pittman, and Cooper Kupp. And 10 of the top 12 WRs had a top 15 QB (min 5 starts) throwing to them. The Jets QB with the most fantasy PPG and no minimum number of games started was Mike White. White ranked No. 35 on the year in that category.
Editor’s Note: This article was written before Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets.
Aaron Rodgers is likely going to be a New York Jet. If that happens, Wilson’s production will skyrocket. The Jets have a prolific passing offense that’s been led by less-than-prolific QBs in Wilson, Flacco, White, and Streveler. No matter how many QB changes they made throughout the season, each one was as inaccurate as the last, with a combined On Target Percent of 67.5-percent. This is the No. 2 lowest team total since 2000. But this isn’t for lack of trying. The Jets continue to pass with their subpar QBs.
Since 2018, 45 teams have attempted more than 600 passes in a season. The Jets have reached this mark twice in both years with Robert Saleh, in 2021 and 2022. Of the teams who have attempted over 600 passes in a season over this time frame, the Jets rank last and third to last in Completion Percentage. This team loves to pass even when it isn’t working. With a real QB under center, the Jets will continue to be one of the highest-volume passing offenses in the league. Garrett Wilson will be the primary beneficiary.

Maximizing Assets

Dynasty Fantasy Football’s most important assets are insulated at their peak value. It doesn’t change their value when things in their career change, whether it be an injury or a new QB. Wilson is this player. He fought to get snaps at the start of his rookie season and caught passes from the worst collection of QBs in the league.
This was the bottom for Wilson, and it’s all up from here. He will be a perennial top six WR, and he will be WR3 after the 2023 season. Jump on this rocketship before it takes off.