J.K. Dobbins is now out for the season. What is the fantasy fallout? Who should fantasy gamers be adding in their leagues this week?
The Baltimore Ravens Offense has been the talk of the Fantasy offseason. New offensive coordinator Todd Monken arrived, replacing Greg Roman, and the promise of a pedal to the mettle up tempo-balanced approach arrived with him. Lamar Jackson received a contract extension, and Baltimore brought in multiple pass-catching weapons to join him, signing Odell Beckham Jr. and drafting dynamic playmaker Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft.
While the scheme and pass catchers changed, the Ravens made no moves when it came to the running back position. Baltimore instead showed their confidence in JK Dobbins. Dobbins, a former 2nd-round draft pick, had struggled with injuries throughout his NFL career, appearing in only 23 regular season games as a pro. Last year, he returned from injury to close the season very strongly with three games of 90+ rushing yards. In Baltimore’s near win over Cincinnati in the NFL playoffs, Dobbins had 105 combined yards and a TD.
With only Gus Edwards and Justice Hill as his competition for carries, drafters echoed the Ravens faith in Dobbins, selecting him as a mid-level RB2. There were whispers that Dobbins could be this season’s Josh Jacobs and help fantasy managers win their RB2 slots and leagues.
This Was the Year
2023 was finally going to be the season for Dobbins to deliver on his talent and prospect profile. The game script started well, as Dobbins found the end zone on eight carries. He also had two catches on three targets- a potential cheat code for a player with his dynamic game-breaking ability. But heartbreak ensued as Dobbins went down with yet another season-ending injury- a torn Achilles.
At this point, Dobbins will probably never deliver the smash season drafters have been betting on since he entered the league. His career is not over, but there is a great sadness and a feeling of finality. Injuries can catch up with anyone, even a talented 24-year-old.
In the NFL, and certainly in fantasy, there is a “next man in” mentality, and Baltimore will be no different. This franchise has seen its fair share of movement at the RB position, with players like Devonta Freeman, Mike Davis, Gus Edwards, and Ty’son Williams all receiving starts in recent years.
Replacements
The logical replacements will be Justice Hill and Gus Edwards. Both players have experience with Jackson and head coach John Harbaugh. When Dobbins went down, Edwards saw the next carry. Hill, who had a very strong preseason, found the end zone twice (This could have been a SMASH game for Dobbins’ managers SMH). There will be a split, with Edwards and Hill competing for touches. If Baltimore wants to use an RB as a pass catcher, then Hill will have the higher ceiling of the two. Wishing for anything more than RB3/Flex production out of either running back will be wishful thinking. If I could choose one to roster on my fantasy teams, it would be Hill.
Baltimore also has Melvin Gordon on their practice squad. Gordon looked cooked last season in Denver before latching on with Kansas City and not having to contribute. I would expect Gordon to be well behind Edwards and Hill. Rookie Keaton Mitchell is on the IR, and he could work his way into touches in the second half of the season. We could also see Baltimore involved with backs like Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt.
Jackson paced the Ravens in rushing yards and expect that to be the case moving forward. Baltimore wants Jackson to run less, but he will at least be an opportunistic runner. When push comes to shove, it is hard for Baltimore not to call Jackson’s number.
Beneficiaries
Zay Flowers could be the biggest beneficiary in terms of scheme and touches. He saw 11 touches in his first game as a pro, including two rushing attempts. He could be in the mix for Offensive Rookie of the Year numbers. Expect Monken to feature him even more. Mark Andrews will return soon, and will be his reliable self, giving Jackson one of the best TEs in the league.
If you want to profit off the change in Baltimore, be careful overspending on the RBs and try and trade for one of the pass catchers. Baltimore will still score points and they will still move the ball.
If you are a JK Dobbins manager, keep your head up. This is a long season, and this will not be the only injury we have to deal with. Check out my Waiver Wire article on PlayerProfiler every Tuesday for help with your roster.
