PlayerProfiler is home to award-winning dynasty rankings and tools. Our Dynasty Deluxe package includes complete Dynasty Rankings, Rookie Rankings, Trade Analyzer, Draft Planner, Mock Drafts, and more. Check it out! Below, Wolf Trelles-Heard picks one draft value and one fade from the AFC East.
It’s August so that means redraft season is fully upon us. I wanted to highlight some current values across the fantasy landscape as people prepare for their home and work drafts. I’ll be going one division at a time, featuring the AFC East today, and highlighting one player I think is a draft value and one I believe should be faded at cost. For this series, I’ll be using Underdog’s ADP as a baseline until more drafts take place and we get a clearer picture of how players are coming off the board.
Hope you find this info useful and include it in your draft prep to help dominate your leagues.
Also, check out the one draft value and one fade from the NFC North, NFC East, NFC South, NFC West, and AFC North.
Draft Value: Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (ADP 79.6, WR46)
We live in an age of instant gratification. Credit cards let us buy now and worry later. Amazon delivers almost anything to our doorstep in a day. Uber Eats means we don’t even have to leave the couch (except to answer the door) to get hot food.
It seems fantasy football is no different nowadays. Managers want immediate returns from their selections. Just look at last year: Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey all put up top 12 seasons as rookies. Once upon a time, we had to wait for wide receivers to develop. Going for the “3rd-year breakout” was a philosophy that many followed and applied when selecting WRs in drafts.
That process played out perfectly with Khalil Shakir last season.
Khalil Shakir’s Advanced Metrics
After showing some flashes in his second season, Shakir took a leap in Year 3. His early-season efficiency earned him more opportunities as the year went on. He operated in the underneath areas of the field, with a mere 5.5-yard average depth of target. Still, he made magic on those short catches, ranking no. 2 among WRs with 597 yards after catch and no. 21 with 0.099 first downs per route run.
Sticky Fingers
Shakir finished the year with 76 receptions for 821 yards and four touchdowns. Not earth-shattering totals, but he was a trusted option for quarterback Josh Allen. He ranked as the WR7 with an average target separation of 2.12 yards and the WR10 with a 52.4-percent route win rate. When Allen needed to move the chains, he turned to Shakir because he knew the ball wouldn’t hit the turf. The sure-handed Shakir didn’t drop a single pass on 100 targets in 2024, after dropping only one on 45 targets the season prior.
That passing-catching prowess and reliability earned Shakir a new deal this offseason. The Bills rewarded him with a 4-year, 53-million contract extension, keeping him in Buffalo through 2029. Clearly, the team has some big plans for the 25-year-old former 5th-round pick.
That’s exciting for fantasy managers. Shakir’s tied to the reigning league MVP in an offense that’s perennially one of the highest scoring units. He should improve on last season’s 12.2 fantasy points per game average (WR33). He’s the discount version of Zay Flowers (12.3 PPG), going roughly 2-3 rounds later in most drafts.
He’ll rarely win you a week, but Shakir is a great high-floor option in the middle rounds you can plug into your flex and rest easily. There will likely be a discount due to the recent high ankle sprain he suffered in camp. Take advantage of that if Shakir slips further in your drafts.
Draft Fade: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (28.7 ADP, WR15)
Now we go from a productive WR on limited looks to an inefficient one with a boatload of volume.
I don’t dislike Garrett Wilson as a player. He’s a solid wideout. A perfectly good WR1 for an NFL team. I just don’t think he’ll ever reach the heights that so many others think he can – in real life or in fantasy.
Garrett Wilson’s Advanced Metrics
Only one player in NFL history has more targets than Wilson’s 469 over their first three seasons: Justin Jefferson with 476. Wilson’s been fed a historic barrage of targets. He just hasn’t been elite with them.
In those three seasons, here’s where Wilson finished in PPR points per game:
2024: 14.8 (WR18)
2023: 12.5 (WR32)
2022: 12.7 (WR30)
He’s never missed a game, so his overall finishes have looked a little better: WR21 in 2022, WR26 in 2023, and WR10 last season. But even with that insane amount of opportunities, the best Wilson has given fantasy managers is mid-range WR2 numbers on a weekly basis.
Looking ahead, it’s hard to see where Wilson can improve to pay off his 2025 price tag.
Run-Heavy Offense
Aaron Rodgers is out. Justin Fields is in. Since 2022, he leads the NFL with a 32-percent rush rate on dropbacks. That amount of scrambling isn’t going to help Wilson rack up big yardage totals.
Another issue is scoring opportunities. Fields has one of the lowest passing TD lines among the betting markets. Over the last three seasons, Fields has just 38 passing TDs in 38 games played. Wilson, who has just 14 career touchdowns, will need a spike in end zone trips if he’s going to ascend to the next level. That seems unlikely given Fields’ history.
And maybe, just maybe, the motivation won’t quite be the same. Wilson recently signed a 4-year, 130-million extension tying him to New York for six more years. With that kind of cash now secure, there’s little incentive to push through the late season grind when fantasy managers will need him the most, especially if the Jets are out of contention in the tough AFC East.
Given all that, you want me to pony up an early third-round pick for a player on a ground-and-pound offense, catching passes from a run-first QB, after showing he needs absurd volume to just to be, at best, a WR2?
In my best Paul Walker impression, “I said forget about, cuh.”
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Wolf Trelles-Heard is a fantasy football contributor for PlayerProfiler. Find him on X at @DynastyFFWolf.
