Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings Wars: Week 4

by Elliott Troop · Betting & Props

Week 4 is here. We got underway on Thursday with the Deshaun Watson renaissance continuing, as the Browns moved to 3-1. The less said about that, the better. Week 4 has some great games. We head to London for the first time, we have the Jaguars facing the Bengals, the Rams facing the under-pressure Eagles, the red-hot 49ers against the misfiring Broncos, and the now-weekly humiliation of the Los Angeles Chargers — this time at the hands of the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

For anyone new here, this column is simple. Every week, we pit sportsbook rankings against expert consensus rankings. I find the largest discrepancy between the sportsbooks’ fantasy football rankings and the experts: one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver, and one tight end.

Before we get into this week’s wars, let’s take a look at how last week played out. 

The scoring system is closest to the final rank wins. I highlighted these players before Sunday’s games: 

Baker Mayfield – Sportsbooks win

De’Von Achane – Push due to injury

Parker Washington – Experts win

Hunter Henry – Experts win

That gives the experts another weekly win. They move to 2-0. 

Now, let’s get into Week 4.

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Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings

Bryce Young | QB, Carolina Panthers

Sportsbook Rank: QB7

Expert Consensus Rank: QB10

In his first three seasons in the NFL, Bryce Young has been a low-end QB2 in fantasy. He has finished as the QB23, QB20, and QB19. Sure, there have been spike weeks — a 31-point outing in Week 11 last year against the Falcons comes to mind — but for the most part, Young hasn’t been a reliable option in one-QB leagues. 

This year, though, things are different. Through three games, Young ranks as the QB4 in fantasy. He’s coming off his worst game of the admittedly young season, in which he got banged up by a wandering cleat early in the game. Young has 939 passing yards, tops in the league so far. That’s impressive, given Young had crossed 200 yards just four times last season. 

Bryce Young’s 2026 Explosive Play Rating

Young gets the buffet defense of the Detroit Lions in Week 4. Through three games, the Lions have given up a league-high 299 passing yards per game and the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Though the Panthers could be without ascending wide receiver Jalen Coker, they will be without starting corners Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. If Detroit takes advantage of Carolina’s depleted secondary, it could force Young into a more aggressive passing game script. His passing total is at 246.5 yards, the seventh-highest on the week. The sportsbooks have Young at QB7, while the experts have him at QB10.

Bucky Irving | RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sportsbook Rank: RB12

Expert Consensus Rank: RB19

Bucky Irving’s stock plummeted over the offseason after he missed a chunk of the 2025 campaign due to a shoulder injury. When he returned, Irving’s role was reduced. He became an afterthought in the receiving game and saw no goal-line work. Irving posted notable declines in success rate, EPA/rush, red zone efficiency, targets, and fantasy points per game. 

The Buccaneers’ run game has been one of the only highlights on an otherwise miserable offense led by under-pressure Todd Bowels — sorry, Bowles. Irving ranks as the RB14 through three weeks, which represents a solid return on investment for anyone who drafted him. 


In Week 4, Bucky Irving gets the Green Bay Packers, who have given up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Granted, they just played Bijan Robinson. Still, Irving ranks sixth in targets and fifth in receptions among all running backs. The sportsbooks have Irving at RB12, while the experts have him at RB19.

Malik Washington | WR, Miami Dolphins

Sportsbook Rank: WR48

Expert Consensus Rank: WR35

De’Von Achane’s ACL injury minutes into the Kansas City Chiefs game in Week 3 felt like the death knell for the Miami Dolphins’ fantasy football season. However, conventional wisdom in these circles suggests that, given the Dolphins are going to be trailing on a weekly basis, someone is going to be catching passes in this offense. 

Despite the Dolphins clear ambivalence about winning any games this season, Malik Washington has been anointed as the pass catcher to own in this offense — at least for the next few weeks as rookies Caleb Douglas and Chris Bell get more reps. 


The sportsbooks disagree with this assessment, ranking Malik Washington as the WR48 for the week. The Dolphins face off against the blitz-happy Minnesota Vikings, who have blitzed at an astronomical 71% rate. Malik Willis has just a 39.1% completion rate vs. the blitz this season, which ranks 30th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks. 

Kyle Pitts | TE, Atlanta Falcons

Sportsbook Rank: TE15

Expert Consensus Rank: TE22

Famous poet Charles Bukowski once compelled people to “find what you love and let it kill you.” Evidently, he couldn’t have been thinking of my infatuation with Kyle Pitts, who has caused me nothing but pain throughout his NFL career. 

John Bates, Drew Sample, Eric Saubert and Blake Whiteheart have more fantasy points than Kyle Pitts. Hell, even Colston Loveland has more fantasy points than Pitts. Though Michael Penix rode in on his white horse like Gandalf at the Battle of Helm’s Deep, it made no difference to Kyle Pitts, who logged a derisory one reception for five yards. 


And yet, here we are again. Kyle Pitts is staring at me like the first cold beer of the weekend. 

Though the Saints have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, the books don’t believe that will make one jot of difference. They have him ranked as the TE15 on the week, whilst the experts have Pitts ranked as the TE22. 

Elliott Troop is a fantasy football analyst for PlayerProfiler.

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