Our attention turns to Week 3 after an action-packed Week 2, which will live long in the memory thanks to the Caleb Williams memes. JJ McCarthy is presumably thrilled to no longer be the butt of every NFL meme.
For anyone new here, the basis of this column is simple. Every week, we pit sportsbook rankings against expert consensus rankings. I find the biggest discrepancy between the sportsbooks’ fantasy football rankings and the experts: one quarterback, one running back, one wide receiver, and one tight end.
For those wanting to know how last week’s picks went, I have established a scoring system: closest to the final rank wins. Last week, the experts took the week 3-1 after Javonte Williams and Isaiah Likely underwhelmed for the sportsbooks.
Let’s dive into Week 3.
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Sportsbook Rankings vs Expert Consensus Rankings
Baker Mayfield | QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sportsbook Rank: QB19
Expert Consensus Rank: QB10
Five games into the 2025 season, Baker Mayfield was in premature MVP discussions. Mayfield ranked as the QB5 in fantasy football and looked set to carry 2024’s rich vein of form — when he finished QB4 in fantasy points per game — into the new season. Injuries played a part in his second-half collapse as the Buccaneers offense struggled. This was reflected in his fantasy production. Mayfield went from 21.3 fantasy points per game over the first five weeks down to 15.8 fantasy points per game over the final 10 weeks of the season.
Mayfield is off to a similarly sluggish start in 2026. He has experienced extreme highs and lows throughout his career, but it is hard to imagine things getting much worse than being outplayed by Deshaun Watson at home. Through two weeks, Mayfield has a 40% pressure-to sack-rate while being sacked the second-most times. He also ranks 22nd in deep throw completion rate and 28th in EPA per play. All that to say: he is currently the QB25 in fantasy.
Baker Mayfield’s 2026 Stats
In Week 3, the under-pressure Buccaneers face the blitz-happy Minnesota Vikings. Through two weeks, the Vikings are blitzing on a whopping 75.9% of plays. The sportsbooks don’t like Mayfield to get right. They have him ranked as the QB19 compared to QB10 by the experts. Mayfield has the 11th-lowest passing-yard total and 15th in rushing-yard total of the week.
De’Von Achane | RB, Miami Dolphins
Sportsbook Rank: RB12
Expert Consensus Rank: RB3
Through two weeks, De’Von Achane ranks sixth overall in total running back touches (39). However, he ranks 21st in total fantasy points among all running backs and 62nd in rushing success rate. It’s only two games, but Achane’s explosive play rate (carries of 15-plus yards) has decreased from 10.1% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026. He’s very much the Bugatti parked in the driveway of a mobile home meme. The Dolphins have struggled to move the ball against both the Raiders and 49ers, ranking 26th in total offensive yards.
De’Von Achane’s 2026 EPX
That’s hardly a surprise given the Dolphins’ clear commitment to the most egregious tank job in recent memory. Achane’s rushing yards total (60.5) is the 12th-highest among all rushers, and he ranks fourth in receiving yards (22.5). The Dolphins face the Chiefs, who have given up the third-fewest rushing yards to running backs after two games. The sportsbooks have Achane ranked as a low-end RB1 on the week.
Parker Washington | WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Sportsbook Rank: WR11
Expert Consensus Rank: WR22
Even the biggest Parker Washington bull couldn’t dream up a better start to the season. Washington ranks third in yards per route run (4.52), second in targets per route run (45%), second in target share (35%), eighth in receiving yards (181), and tenth in fantasy points (18.1 PPG). It’s fair to say he is the clear WR1 on the Jaguars.
Parker Washington’s Advanced Metrics
Washington faces the New England Patriots in Week 3. The Patriots have given up the fourth-fewest total offensive yards per game (260) and the fourth-fewest passing yards per game (166). The sportsbooks have Washington ranked as a low-end WR1 for the week, whilst experts see him as a low-end WR2. Washington has the 14th-highest receiving yards total (61.5) and a receptions total of 4.5.
Hunter Henry | TE, New England Patriots
Sportsbook Rank: TE10
Expert Consensus Rank: TE20
The Patriots’ offense has struggled to get going against two tough defenses. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers posed problems for the reigning AFC champs. Through two games, the Patriots are averaging 302 total yards of offense compared to 379 yards per game last season. Those offensive struggles have been felt most acutely in the passing game. Last season, the Patriots averaged 250 passing yards per game — Drake Maye is averaging just 179 passing yards so far in 2026.
Drake Maye to Hunter Henry connection early on. pic.twitter.com/YG5zPNIbg8
— The Football Suite (@ThFootballSuite) September 20, 2026
In a teeny, tiny sample of just one game without A.J. Brown, Hunter Henry led the Patriots in targets (five), TPRR (22.5%) and routes run (22). Henry’s receiving yards total is 41.5, which ranks 11th among all tight ends for the week. Henry ranks as the TE10 according to sportsbooks, who see him as the main beneficiary of A.J. Brown’s absence. Meanwhile, experts have Henry ranked as the TE20.
