Josh Downs is currently Indy’s go-to wide receiver and projects to hog targets early in the season. With Alec Pierce working with the medical staff instead of training, Downs is earning outside snaps after he commanded a 23.6-percent Target Rate last season.

While Downs is teed up to be a target monster in 2026, Moore also reported that Pierce “is expected to receive close to double the number of targets than a season ago, when he received a career-high 84.” However, Pierce earned a mere 18.0-percent Target Share and an 18.3-percent Target Rate last season and is actively recovering from offseason ankle surgery.

Moore’s target share prediction math does not add up. The facts on the ground suggest Downs will be the Colts’ target leader, and Indianapolis management is practicing cognitive dissonance after signing an injured Pierce to a  $114 contract. Savvy fantasy managers will be drafting Downs with confidence in best ball, dynasty and seasonal leagues while taking a wait-and-see approach on Pierce in fantasy football.