Analytics & Advanced Metrics

Athleticism matters a great deal for predicting fantasy success at the tight end position. Height-Adjusted Speed Score is the most important athleticism metric, followed by the agility drills (3-cone and 20-yard shuttle) that comprise the Agility Score and explosion exercises (broad/vertical jump) that comprise the Burst Score. Metrics such as Catch Radius, Athleticism Score, and SPARQ-x also do a good job of summarizing a player’s overall athleticism and predicting a tight end’s chances of NFL success.

Albert Okwuegbunam is intriguing. We don’t have his Catch Radius, and his 11.8 Yards per Reception fell just below the threshold we look for, but his 129.6 (99th-percentile among qualified tight ends) Speed Score and 31.2-percent (90th-percentile) College Dominator Rating indicate that he is poised to be a fantasy stud.

An early Breakout Age increases the chance that a wide receiver will have a successful NFL career. Of the wide receivers selected in 2014, 14 of them (41-percent) had a Breakout Age of 20 or younger. The 2020 class holds an edge with 18 prospects drafted (or 51-percent) meeting the same breakout threshold. Another notable trend for the 2020 class is that half of the players with early Breakout Ages were selected in Round 4 or later. In 2014, only two wide receivers selected on Day 3 of the draft had an early breakout.

Speed Score places a premium on 40-time, but also factors in body weight and length. The 2020 class has 17 players (49-percent) with a Speed Score of 100 or higher. A handful of rookies did not run the 40-yard dash at the 2020 Combine, so it is possible that this class more 100-plus Speed Score WRs. Even so, this represents the highest number of receivers with a Speed Score of 100-plus drafted in a class in over 10 years. In comparison, 14 players (41-percent) met this threshold for the 2014 group.